China's new economic client October 25 (Dong Xiang Yi) 24, in response to the recent Internet rumors Yanjiao limit purchase relaxation news, Sanhe City real estate registration business hall related staff said to the media, did not receive any notice or documents on the Internet rumors about relaxation of the limit policy, the current is still strictly enforced before the limit purchase policy.

Only four days, Sanya, Changsha, Yanjiao three places to relax the purchase limit rumors are officially denied. Every move of the property market policy is stirring the nerves of the market, the subtle signals at the moment foreshadow the future direction of regulation? The wind direction of the property market will change?

Many industry insiders said in an interview with the client of China's new economic latitude and longitude, from the perspective of the national property market, the market is currently in a period of serious polarization, does not rule out that the local government has some relaxation of test considerations, while the market is brewing a speculative atmosphere. But the future of real estate regulation and control will not slacken, the market will remain generally stable.

File photo Dong Xiangyi, China's New China Economic and Trade Commission (NCETC)

Three rumors of "relaxation of restrictions on purchases" in four days

Significant speculation in the market

Yanjiao:

This is the first time that the government has tried to relax the restrictions on purchases in China.

Recently, the network circulated a "restriction on the purchase of the 18th document" that Yanjiao in the provincial units, colleges and universities, hospitals, or high-tech zone in the name of the introduction of the enterprise, in Yanjiao without housing can be in the local purchase of a new commercial housing, moving into the Beijing urban sub-center of the organs and institutions. Cadres and employees will implement the "certain three limits" (i.e., strict restrictions on specific personnel, limited to the purchase of a housing unit, limited to three years of sale, limited price).

According to a number of media reports on the 24th, the relevant staff of the real estate registration business hall in Sanhe City said that they had not received any notice or document about the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy rumored on the Internet, and that the purchase restriction policy is still strictly enforced at present.

It is worth noting that the news of Yanjiao's relaxation of the purchase restriction was first reported by some self-media, not an authoritative source. Some industry insiders even pointed out that this is a "naked rumor".

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the client of China's new economic weft client, "The relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in Yanjiao is completely market speculation, belonging to the innocence of the 'lying gun', Yanjiao is just a town of Sanhe City on the administrative divisions, and only the government of Sanhe City has the right to issue. " He pointed out that in the downward pressure, the market there is a greater demand for loosening, so the speculation of this atmosphere.

These years, with the general environment suddenly cold, Yanjiao housing prices also follow the big ups and downs. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial and Strategic Studies housing big data project team recently released the "China housing market development monthly analysis report" shows that in September, the ring of Beijing house prices are still low, as the ring of Beijing weathervane Langfang (Yanjiao) house prices fell 2%, the rate of decline is still relatively fast. In addition, China's new economic reporter in the housing world website to see, in October Yanjiao housing average price of 19,100 yuan / square meter, compared with the previous month rose 0.31%, compared with January this year rose 1.4%.

Infographic CNA Xue Yufei photo

Sanya:

October 19, a number of media from the official website of the Sanya Municipal Government, 12345 service hotline column, for the talent of the foreign provinces, to meet the full-time college and above, in Sanya actually work for one year, and to pay one year of social security and personal tax, can buy a set of Hainan Province. The same day, it was rumored that Sanya talents can buy a set of real estate in Hainan Province. On the same day, the net rumor Sanya talent to buy new policy, which, in urgent need of shortage of talent to buy a house, without personal tax or social security certificate.

Sanya City Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau website screenshot

Sanya has been implementing strict restrictions on the eligibility of home purchase due to the implementation of the entire Hainan Province, so this is interpreted as the outside world for the introduction of talent in Sanya to relax the restriction on the purchase policy, and even said that "Sanya is the first to open the mouth of the liberalization of the restriction on the purchase in Hainan ".

According to the China Real Estate News reported on the 21st, Sanya City Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau, a major responsible person said, Sanya did not relax the purchase restriction policy, is the media misinterpretation and misinterpretation of the content of the relevant documents. Relevant talents still need to meet the conditions of paying personal income tax or social insurance before they can buy a house.

The report also said that Sanya Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, Sanya Municipal Party Committee Talent Development Bureau jointly issued the above notice, is only the previous Hainan Province issued a series of policies related to the implementation of the details of the talent housing policy, and the spirit of the relevant documents in Hainan Province and the provisions of the spirit of the provisions are consistent with Sanya has not broken through the boundaries of the limit of purchase.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data on housing prices in 70 cities in September, Sanya's new commercial residential sales prices rose by only 0.3%, up 4.3% year-on-year, the rise ranked 61st in 70 large and medium-sized cities. In July last year, Sanya had led the 70 cities with a 3.7 percent ringgit increase in new home prices.

Also according to data released by the Sanya Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from January to August this year, Sanya City, the cumulative housing sales area of 914,100 square meters, a year-on-year decline of 48.3%. Among them, the commercial housing sales area of 833,700 square meters, down 50.0 percent year-on-year.

Changsha:

Recently, Changsha has also been rumored to lower the threshold for home purchases by talents and relax the restriction on purchases.On Oct. 23, Rediff.com reported that the relevant person in charge of Changsha's Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau said Changsha's "restriction on purchases has been relaxed."

Changsha URA relevant person in charge of the introduction, the Bureau on August 18, 2017 introduced the "Changsha City, the implementation of home purchase and home purchase subsidies for talented people (trial)", according to the relevant provisions of the trial two years need to be converted into a formal approach. Therefore, in response to the more feedback during these two years of trial implementation, the Bureau made revisions and additions, and issued the "Implementation Measures for Changsha City Talents' Home Purchase and Home Purchase Subsidies" on September 30 this year, but the official measures did not involve content related to the current purchase restriction policy.

It is reported that the official measures include a provision that "talents working in Changsha with academic qualifications of specialties or above or professional qualifications of technicians or above are not subject to the restrictions on household registration and the time of payment of personal tax and social security for the first set of home purchase." However, the document also made it clear that talents are not subject to restrictions on household registration and the time for paying taxes and social security for their first home purchase, but they still have to fulfill the condition of working and living in Changsha for 24 months.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in September, Changsha's sales price index for new commercial residential properties was unchanged from the previous month, while the year-on-year rate of increase was 3.8 percent.

150 cities released talent policies in the year

Control of the property market now subtle changes?

In fact, in Yanjiao, Sanya, Changsha this rumor behind the relaxation of the purchase restrictions, this year, the country has a number of cities to introduce talent to adjust the purchase restrictions policy. The most typical in addition to Sanya, is the Nanjing Liuhe District, Tianjin Binhai New Area in this month introduced the corresponding policy, the two for outsiders to buy housing restrictions have been relaxed.

Data released by the Centaline Real Estate Research Center shows that more than 150 cities across the country have released various talent policies since 2019, up more than 40 percent compared with the same period in 2018.

Industry insiders have pointed out that the talent policies of some cities have lowered the threshold of purchase restrictions in disguise, and after attracting talents, they have pushed them into the real estate market, which was already tense in terms of supply and demand structure, and have obviously brought about the expectation of a rise in the real estate market.

"From the actual policy implementation, the talent policy in most cities does affect the real estate market, especially in areas such as Tianjin where it is relatively difficult to settle down." In Zhang Dawei's view, most cities across the country are currently not prepared for how to retain talent after attracting it. "In this case, many of those attracted are homebuyers, and there may even be speculators who buy homes and settle in different cities with the help of the talent policy." Simple attraction can only lead to fluctuations in the real estate market, he claimed.

Li Yuga, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said in an interview with CNA that the biggest feature of this round of policies is that they are linked to talent, and the supply of housing in places with a large inflow of people will increase accordingly, but the adjustments made in localized areas will not have much impact on the overall property market.

The first nine months of regulation more than 400 times

Future market direction?

Central Plains Real Estate Research Center statistics show that the number of national real estate regulation and control in the first nine months of 2019 totaled 415 times, with an average of more than two real estate regulation and control per working day, which set a new record.

The property market in the fourth quarter had an uneventful start, how is the market heading? What will be the situation of regulation?

Zhang Dawei believes that for the fourth quarter of 2019, the market trend mainly depends on the credit policy at the end of the year, as well as the talent policy around the world. Patching measures against rising house prices still keep appearing. But if home prices go down, it is expected that relatively loose policies will also be introduced.

The report released by the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on the other hand, predicts that by the end of 2019, real estate regulation and control policies may see a marginal and localized relaxation, but it is difficult to see a full turn. And under the downward market expectations, even if there is a marginal relaxation of real estate regulation and control policies, it will be difficult to boost home prices in a short time. (CNA APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, investment risk, the market needs to be cautious.)

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