Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: the peak of pork prices may appear around September

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: China's wheat stripe rust, grass covetous nightshade, and other major pests and diseases are expected to be on the heavy side of the trend this year

Market Commentary

Market Commentary: the broad market was weak throughout the day shocks, the short-term support near the 2,800 points

Travel industry: Ctrip predicted that this year's May Day holiday traffic travel volume increased by 353% compared to April

Futures intelligence

Metal energy: gold 374.98,up 1.23%; copper 41470,down 2.22%; rebar 3328,down 1.33%; rubber 10010,down 3.0%; PVC index 5325,down 1.39%; Zheng Alcohol 1699, down 1.39%; Shanghai Aluminum 12115, down 1.94%; Shanghai Nickel 100950, up 0.32%; Iron Ore 606, down 3.04%; Coke 1673, down 2.45%; Coking Coal 1120, down 2.31%; Crude Oil 248.7, down 3.98%;

Agricultural products: Soybean Oil 5352, down 3.11%; corn 2059, down 0.34%; palm oil 4484, down 4.51%; cotton 11115, down 2.16%; Zheng wheat 2564, down 0.62%; sugar 5159, down 2.22%; apple 7233, down 1.28%;

Exchange rates: euro/US dollar 1.0857, down 0.06%; dollar/yuan 7.1037, up 0.18 percent; USD/HKD 7.7499, down 0.00 percent.

(The above futures data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)

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Key recommendations

1, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: pork price peak may occur around September

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Director of the Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Yang Zhenhai, recently introduced, from the full year of pork supply and demand, although the recovery of pig production capacity is positively favorable, but the pattern of tight supply of pork has not fundamentally changed. Pork supply and demand in the second quarter is also facing a low production base, increased import uncertainty, consumption rebound and other triple factors superimposed pressure, may be the most difficult period of this round of pig cycle. after July market supply will gradually improve, but due to the second half of the holiday season, consumption pulling power is also stronger, the peak of pork prices may appear in September around.

Comment: From the data that has been disclosed, many of the main business involved in hog farming listed companies annual report and a quarterly report generally good performance, if the higher pork prices can be maintained to September, then to the mid-term results of this year or even the third quarter results disclosure, the performance of the hog farming stocks will still have a good performance. For some stock prices in the plate is located in a lower position, the cumulative increase is not big stocks, the market there are certain opportunities for stock price repair.

(Investment adviser? Cai Jin? Registered Investment Adviser Certificate No.: S0260611090020)

2, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: It is expected that this year, China's wheat stripe rust, grass greedy night moth and other major pests and diseases were heavy trend

April 21, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national video conference on the implementation of the work of the prevention and control of major pests and diseases in crops to promote. The meeting pointed out that it is expected that this year China's wheat stripe rust, mildew, grass greedy night moth and other major pests and diseases were heavy occurrence trend, the degree of heavy than the previous year, based on the disaster to win a bumper harvest, focusing on the implementation of the five measures. First, the compaction of local responsibility, strengthen organizational leadership, clear objectives and tasks, the implementation of prevention and control measures. Second, encrypted monitoring and early warning, comprehensive monitoring and investigation, timely release of information, strict reporting system. Third, promote the classification of policy, sub-regional management of pests and diseases, establish a national "chess" consciousness, focusing on the construction of the border, the Yangtze River, the Yellow River, the three lines of defense of the meadow moth. Fourthly, organizing prevention and control actions, cultivating specialized control teams, promoting unified prevention and control, and driving group prevention and control. Fifth, accurate guidance services, to carry out guidance tours, supervise the implementation of measures, popularize scientific prevention and control measures and safe use of knowledge.

Commentary: major pests and diseases are heavy occurrence trend, is bound to improve the market capital on pesticide stocks of concern. This year, the pesticide plate stocks also appeared repeatedly active trend, short-term as the market weakened, chasing such has been repeatedly active varieties will face greater risk, do not recommend chasing up to participate.

(Investment adviser? Cai Jin? Registered Investment Adviser Certificate No.: S0260611090020)

Market Review

1, the market review: the market was weak throughout the day shock, short-term 2800 points near the support

Tuesday's index early morning shock weakened in the afternoon rebounded slightly narrowed. As of the close, the Shanghai index closed at 2827.01 points, down 0.9%, the SSE index closed at 10506.9 points, down 1.08%, the GEM index fell 0.95% to close at 2023.94 points. From the plate, stocks fell more than rose less, data centers, infrastructure, cloud computing, artificial meat and other plates performance is relatively active, the rest of the plate trend is weak. Overall, the two cities non-st stocks up nearly 60, down 3, but the blow-up rate is higher, the market atmosphere is weaker. Northbound funds today, a net outflow of 2.753 billion yuan, Shanghai Stock Connect net outflow of 1.246 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect net outflow of 1.507 billion yuan. The two markets traded a total of 649.3 billion yuan, slightly more than yesterday.

The market from the end of March to see the lows since the rally has been 1 month, the rebound node and the U.S. stock market is roughly the same, but also and the northward capital inflows and outflows roughly synchronized with the global up and down a plate chess signs more obvious. From the news point of view, the peripheral negative factors are slightly more, one is Europe and the United States facing economic and employment pressure to restart the resumption of work program, which will greatly increase the uncertainty of the epidemic, the second is the United States plans to make part of the important industrial chain back to the local, anti-globalization process is moving, coupled with the impact of the crude oil plunge and the Korean Peninsula and other events, from a medium-term point of view is likely to lead to the index is under pressure. From their own point of view, in order to cope with the adverse effects of the external environment, the Politburo meeting first mentioned the "six stability", and the release of a clear signal to cut interest rates, the relevant policy is expected to seal the index to kill the space of the sharp fall. Short-term market by oil prices and peripheral market disturbances, adjustment, but loose liquidity or will give the market support. On the operation, keep patience, the market may enter the range oscillation in the short term, investors can sell high and suck low, to strengthen the transaction. Sharp fall in the disk investors can pay attention to the brokerage, science and technology, new and old infrastructure and other high-quality business investment opportunities. The stock market is risky, investment need to be cautious.

(Investment adviser Zeng Zilei Registered Investment Adviser Certificate No.: S0260613090015)

2, the travel industry: Ctrip predicted that this year's May Day holiday traffic travel volume increased by 353% compared to April

April 21, Ctrip released "2020" May Day "The data in the report shows that as of mid-April, the traffic volume of this year's May Day holiday has increased by 353% compared to April, and the total number of trips has increased by 282%. Ctrip platform travelers booking "May Day" during the air tickets has been a significant increase.

Review: Ctrip released the "2020 May Day Travel and Consumption New Trend Big Data Forecast Report", predicting that the traffic volume on May Day will rise sharply from the previous year. Affected by the new crown epidemic, in the first quarter of this year, China's tourism industry appeared to fall off a cliff, a number of scenic spots and tourist venues and even closed. With the improvement of the domestic epidemic, scenic spots and tourist places are gradually open, the domestic tourism industry is expected to gradually rebound. Longer cycle, China's tourism industry is still in a period of rapid growth, the impact of the epidemic in the medium term is expected to enhance the leading concentration of tourism industry segments, we recommend that investors pay attention to the scenic spots, hotels, airports, and other leading enterprises to repair opportunities.

(Investment adviser Zeng Zilei Registered Investment Adviser Certificate No.: S0260613090015)