221 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is also the first year of the new process of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. After an extraordinary year of 22, China has made outstanding achievements in epidemic prevention and control and economic growth, becoming the only country in the world that has achieved positive growth. Looking forward to 221, what opportunities and challenges will China's economy face, and what kind of development trend will it present, which has attracted much attention.
Recovery and challenges coexist
With the epidemic entering the second half, China's economy is steadily entering the post-epidemic era. Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the media that the gradual decline of the world epidemic, the normalization of China's unconventional policies, the transformation and adjustment of China's development strategy, and the gradual rise of endogenous new kinetic energy will become the four core forces that will influence China's macroeconomic operation in 221.
Jia Kang, president of Huaxia Institute of New Supply Economics and a researcher at China Academy of Finance, said, "221 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Many international institutions and domestic researchers agree on the economic performance of China in 221, that is, the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 221 will be higher at the beginning of the year because of the low base in 22; When the growth rate slows down, the annual economic growth rate will reach 8% or higher. "
"22 is an extraordinary year. In 22, due to the epidemic situation, China's economic growth rate decreased in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, with the control of the domestic epidemic situation, economic growth accelerated obviously. Both domestic demand and external demand showed an accelerated growth trend, and the state's policy of promoting economic growth through dual circulation has been exerted." Ma Chunhui, an associate professor of economics at Shenzhen University, told reporters of Xiaokang magazine and China Xiaokang. com that the macroeconomic situation in China in 221 is stable growth. From the external analysis of development, the external economic environment of China's macro-economy has improved. With the completion of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment negotiations and the signing of relevant agreements, China will continue to play the role of the "engine" of global economic growth, promote the recovery of the world economy after the epidemic, and enhance the confidence of the international community in economic globalization and free trade. From the analysis of domestic economic development environment, China's monetary policy and fiscal policy have the ability to cope with the complex economic situation. After the second half of 22, China's investment, consumption, import and export, corporate profitability, innovation ability, manager purchasing index and other indicators have all increased rapidly. The improvement of domestic and international economic environment has laid a solid foundation for China's economic growth in 221.
Ma Chunhui predicted that "in 22, due to the epidemic, the economic growth rate will be lower than that in normal years. With the implementation of various policies and the inertia of economic growth in the second half of 22, the economic growth rate of China in 221 can be fully restored to around 8%. "
Zhou Jingtong, a senior economist at China Bank Research Institute, expressed cautious optimism about China's economy in 221. He said that this judgment is mainly based on the following three factors: First, China's economy will take the lead in recovering from the epidemic in 22 and will be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth, which has laid a good foundation for continued economic growth in 221; Second, the impact of the epidemic in 221 on China's economy will be further reduced; Third, the policy focus will shift from supply-side structural reform to supply-side and demand-side reform, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with internal circulation as the mainstay, so that the potential of domestic demand will be further stimulated and its supporting role for economic growth will be further increased.
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 16th to 18th, 22. Compared with the Central Economic Work Conference in 219, this meeting has many new formulations. For example, it is proposed for the first time to "strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital", "do a good job in peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality" and "enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain".
The meeting clearly pointed out that the macro policy in 221 should be continuous, stable and sustainable. We must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, be more precise and effective in policy operation, do not make sharp turns, and grasp the effectiveness of policies.
"The macro policies that have been implemented will gradually show their effects in 221; The unfinished policies will be further implemented, which will support the further recovery of China's economy in 221. " Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and dean of the research institute, told the media.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of China Economic Exchange Center, believes that the 22 Central Economic Work Conference adheres to the general tone of striving for progress in the direction of macroeconomic policy, and pays more attention to deepening reform and opening up to enhance new development momentum while stabilizing policy continuity, which means giving consideration to countercyclical adjustment and cross-cyclical design in macroeconomic policy, giving play to the role of active fiscal policy more effectively, implementing monetary policy more steadily, and paying attention to preventing and resolving risks while stimulating market vitality, and at the same time paying attention to exerting strength at some key points. "The particularly important policy focus is to grasp a closing and two opening work. It is necessary to maintain policy continuity and stability according to the needs of the situation, and at the same time adjust and fine-tune the policy according to the opportunity. "
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the goal of monetary policy in 221-a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate. It used to be "flexible and moderate" on the basis of stability, and now four words have been added. There is still a lot of room for monetary policy in 221. In this space, the central bank emphasizes maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio.
according to Ma Chunhui's analysis, in 221, relatively speaking, China's monetary policy has more tools to regulate the economy, while fiscal policy has less room to play. However, the task of deleveraging in the implementation of monetary policy is still arduous, and preventing financial risks is still an important consideration. With the introduction and further implementation of the policy of reducing fees and taxes, the pressure of fiscal balance at all levels has increased; Local debt risk, corporate debt risk, difficulties in the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises, pressure of employment, and slow recovery of the world economy all add uncertainty to China's economic growth in 221.
center of gravity shift: science and technology and carbon neutrality
how to do economic work in p>221? The Central Economic Work Conference put forward eight key tasks, including strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength, enhancing the self-control ability of the industrial chain supply chain, adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, comprehensively promoting reform and opening up, solving the problems of seeds and cultivated land, strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities, and doing a good job in carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions.
strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength is placed at the top of the eight key tasks. The 22 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that "determine the direction and focus of scientific and technological innovation and focus on solving major problems that restrict the country's development and security" and "we must promptly formulate and implement a ten-year action plan for basic research and focus on the layout of a number of basic discipline research centers".
"In 221, many fields and departments related to high technology will usher in new development space, such as strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries and modern manufacturing industries." Lian Ping said that this is the need of China's economic development on the one hand, and the policy will fully support it on the other.
Zhu Yan, a professor at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management and president of Internet Industry Research Institute, believes that strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength includes three levels: first, strengthening the strategic strength of basic science and technology; The second is the optimization and reform of the governance system of scientific and technological innovation; The third is to improve the ecological construction ability of science and technology application.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of China Policy Science Research Association, believes that science and technology will play a more and more strategic supporting role in the economy, and scientific and technological innovation should be placed at the core, especially in basic research.
In addition, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly put forward that "doing a good job in peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality" is one of the key tasks in 221. Li Junfeng, executive director of China Energy Research Association and researcher of the National Center for Strategic Research and International Cooperation on Climate Change, believes that carbon neutrality is related to all aspects, including the industrial chain, which will profoundly affect the next industrial chain reconstruction, reorganization and new international standards.
"In the process of peak carbon dioxide emissions, it is also the key work in the Tenth Five-Year Plan period to promote the substantial improvement of energy efficiency, improve the energy structure and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy." Li Junfeng pointed out that in the energy field, clean and low-carbon energy is a direction, which is the same all over the world, that is, gradually reducing dependence on fossil energy. "Its basic logic is to move from a resource-dependent development model to a technology-dependent development model".
Li Junfeng said that 221 is a very special year, which plays a role in connecting the past with the future. "We are looking forward to a good start in the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, which will make a good start for the country's real low-carbon transformation and achieve the three-stage goal of peaking, stabilizing and declining, and finally achieving carbon neutrality."
The above is the "What will the economic situation be like in 221?" compiled by the editor of Wencai.com. Where will the China economy go? " I hope I can help you.