In our previous push, we briefly took stock of some of the short-term impacts of the epidemic on China's auto market, while more to think about is actually the long-term changes in China's auto market.
It's not hard to see from the messages related to these days that, on the one hand, the epidemic has not continued to deteriorate, and there is a possibility of a rapid improvement; on the other hand, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is, in a way, rather a dose of catalyst to accelerate the pace of the previous development of China's economy in the next period of time.
Similarly, for the car market, the epidemic did not change the 2020 continued to weaken the situation, but instead catalyzed the reaction, of course, from the epidemic outbreak also revealed multiple problems, according to what we said earlier, let's talk about four aspects of the "electrification, Internet connectivity, intelligence and **** enjoyment. The clear embodiment of this trend in 2020 appears precisely in the middle of this epidemic.
Just when the whole population is still concerned about the resumption of work or not, the capital market opened the pursuit of new subjects. Especially in February 3, China's A-share market ushered in decades of unprecedented "thousands of shares down" situation, the new energy concept of the leading enterprises under the Ningde Times bucked the trend of surge, to the entire market lit a guiding light.
Afterward, China's auto market ushered in another explosive news, that is, Tesla hit a new high in the U.S. stock market, with its total market value surpassing that of Volkswagen and BMW. Relying on Tesla's drive, throughout the first half of February, China's A-share market related to the new energy industry, the company's stocks have realized a violent rally, following the pharmaceuticals after the market has become a strong plate.
The capital market is always the most sensitive, since the news of Tesla's wholly-owned factory in Shanghai was released, the new energy segment of China's auto market has been rumored to be "crying wolf", and this time, the strong performance of the capital's will is just like a notice warning all the car companies that "the wolf" is really coming.
So, electrification is bound to develop on schedule, which has both opportunities and challenges for China's auto industry. On the one hand, in front of the electrification, whether it is independent brands or foreign joint venture brands, are standing on the same starting line, and thanks to the advantages of local enterprises, many independent brands have formed a new energy product camp of considerable scale.
But we need to pay attention to is that many independent brands of new energy products accounted for the file is not high, brand power is not strong; subject to product costs and new energy subsidies to the impact of the slope, profit margins are low, the whole enterprise anti-risk ability is very poor.
On the other hand, 2020 will be the year of the big test of the new car-making forces. The economic situation continues to stabilize as well as the capital market on the future earnings expectations of the less than, will lead to financing difficulties intensified; at the same time, Tesla domestic rhythm is accelerating, rumors of Model?3 "280,000 selling price" of the new car-making forces is undoubtedly a major blow.
But on the demand side, affected by the epidemic, many people have discovered a different side of electrified products.
For example, the advantage of energy supplementation without leaving home. The natural way to replenish energy in a traditional vehicle is to drive to a gas station and wait in line, costing time and energy. In big cities, many consumers always get up in the middle of the night to refuel their cars to avoid waiting in line.
But the means of energy supplementation of new energy products is more "home" some, it creates no need to go out and even do not have to go down to the garage can charge the way, this carrier energy supplementation scenario is convenient, it can be said that a lot of people see the new energy products a different side.
Of course, at present, the popularization of new energy public **** charging base station or power exchange base station still need some time, at the same time the battery technology is also yet to break through, but at least at this stage, we have been able to imagine new energy products outlined by the car scene.
In addition to the emergence of this scenario, another feature of new energy products under electrification is the opportunity cost of short-distance commuting.
After the epidemic, many people's trips have become short distances of a few kilometers. And along with the continuation of the epidemic, life travel is characterized by high frequency and short distance.
This time the advantages of new energy products are reflected, on the one hand, private electric vehicles than the public **** transportation system is more secure, so that people are more convinced; on the other hand, private electric vehicles than non-motorized transport is more convenient, and the parking space is relatively closed, allowing people to realize the "home-garage-destination" this kind of travel.
Most importantly, under high-frequency use conditions, the new energy products have lower vehicle costs, maintenance costs are also low, consumers choose new energy vehicles to travel the opportunity cost has been reduced.
It must be said that the emergence of the epidemic, indeed, let us experience a life mode of the electric era in advance, and as electrification continues to deepen, I believe that our car life will have a greater change.
For the average consumer, the change doesn't seem to be y felt, for two reasons. One is that any change in trend will have a relatively long conduction mechanism, and it is "top-down", just like the monetary policy set by the state, which often lasts for several years before finally being reflected in the end consumers.
The other thing is that the application of this change has not unfolded until recent years. Previously, the industry's best-thought-of net-connectivity was used more for traffic control systems to enhance the country's traffic control capabilities and improve traffic control efficiency. But with the use of big data, cloud computing and other concepts, network connectivity is also beyond the scope of the traditional traffic, manifested around the vehicle as a port for the development of intelligent dynamic information services, intelligent control of vehicles and intelligent traffic management integrated use of mechanisms.
A very important performance is that the advent of the 5G era, once "do not make a car" leading enterprises Huawei also entered the Chinese automotive industry last year, but also empowered the wind god shares in the capital market brought a wave of small high tide. Huawei, Botai and other companies stationed, and not simply change the development of automotive intelligence, superimposed on the energy of Meituan, Baidu, Tencent and other Internet companies, it is not difficult to find that the car is increasingly difficult to become a "four-wheeled machine" alone, but a link to the entire life of the car terminal.
Some people said a long time ago that there are two "highways" in this era, in addition to the traditional sense of high speed, there is also a highway of information, accompanied by the development of network connectivity, the car has become able to drive on both highways on the carrier, both mileage and accumulation of big data driving.
We can see that the outbreak of this epidemic, the country based on the previous "SARS" prevention and control experience, has been the fastest to achieve effective control, but there are new challenges: the epidemic superimposed on the Spring Festival, the flow of people for the virus to create an excellent way to spread.
In order to more effectively control the epidemic, in terms of transportation in many areas still used the "blockade" approach, it is undeniable that such initiatives are effective, but not the most efficient.
Imagine, now many brands are in their own products added to the driver status monitoring system, such as WEY brand products, according to your facial expression to remind you whether you are in the fatigue driving, then if this system superimposed on the life monitoring function, and these messages can be transmitted in a timely manner to the cloud, in the application of big data, the control department whether it is able to be more effective, timely to grasp the relevant information? The system will be able to monitor the driver's behavior in a more efficient and timely manner.
Of course, this is just speculation, after all, this also involves a series of barriers such as information processing technology, ethical discussions, etc., but the Internet is really a major trend that can not be weakened, which changes are worth looking forward to.
Due to space constraints, we have done some thinking about electrification and connectivity in this issue, and we'll talk more about intelligentization and ****enjoyment in the next issue.
This article comes from the authors of AutoNavi, and does not represent the views of AutoNavi.