Author | GLONDHI SOUTH
Data support | hook big data
Shenzhen has two famous teenage companies, the light of the technology and soft technology, two companies have a lot of **** the same point, such as the two bosses are surnamed Liu, are 83 years, for example, the two companies are rumored to be "wearing the emperor's new clothes of the PPT company," "poisonous horn beast".
A few days ago, the news reported that the soft technology has been in the listing counseling, and the light technology is also considered by the market, "once blown bull to start to cash," the stock price rubbing up.
The boss of the light technology is Liu Ruopeng, known as the "Shenzhen new generation of technology experts", in 2009 from the United States back to Duke University, led his team successfully developed the "invisible clothes", the results were published in the journal "Science", Liu Ruopeng is the first author.
The invisibility cloak is similar to a chameleon, changing with the surrounding environment, and its key principle is "shape and material", the shape is used to eliminate most of the echo, and the material is used to absorb the electromagnetic wave so that it is not detected by the radar, to give a person visually form a kind of invisible feeling.
This black technology is used in the military to prevent ships and tanks from being detected by the microwave detection system of radar, and to improve combat capabilities, this material is called "stealth material".
01
By the revenue profit support "in vain"
The light technology in the A-share appearances in 2017, its predecessor is to do the automotive spare parts "Longsheng shares", by the year China's automotive market growth rate gradually slowed down the impact of the company that year through the The first fixed-increase fund-raising and then asset injection, with 446 million of its own funds to merge and acquire the main body of the metamaterial business "optical tip", the formation of goodwill of 321 million. Retain the original auto parts business, cut into the military cutting-edge equipment "metamaterials" field, transformed into a "lightening technology".
Although the main business still have to rely on automotive spare parts, but the business is to change the foreign style: from a car seat functional parts manufacturer to the transformation of metamaterials intelligent structure and equipment as the core business of cutting-edge scientific and technological innovation company, to realize the transformation from the traditional manufacturing industry to the innovation enterprise, high-end manufacturing.
How innovative, high-end method, mainly because the company not only to the military industrial enterprises to sell metamaterials military equipment, but also sell R & D services, such as the military industrial enterprises to provide technology outsourcing business.
This model reminds us of the software company's product + service model, customer-oriented customized sales, the gross margin of these products is only about 20% -30% or so, and the gross margin of the super-materials business of the light technology in 40% -50% or so. Indeed to high-end much, after all, people's customers are military enterprises, the production of products for military operations.
Although the transformation has been completed in 3 years, the original auto parts business has been gradually reduced from 89% of revenue in 17 years to 52% in 2019, but it is not too much to say that it is still mainly an auto parts manufacturer.
But "automotive parts business" in recent years because of the impact of the automotive downturn, is weak for years, revenue and gross margin double decline;
And the new transformation of the metamaterials business, the overall revenue scale of only 200 million, the overall gross margin stabilized at 40% or more than the company's automotive parts business value-added to the high end.
Among them, the metamaterials R & D business revenue and gross margin fluctuations, just acquired in 2017, the gross margin of the R & D business reached 73.7%! But the R&D business has not yet broken through 100 million in revenue; the revenue and gross margin of the metamaterials products have been steadily increasing, and in 2019, the sales of metamaterials products increased significantly to 156 million, which is larger than the volume of the R&D business, and the level of gross margin is about the same.
The overall profit of the company containing automotive parts business is also 128 million, in 2017, after the optical technology cut into the metamaterials business, the company's earnings quality, on the contrary, has declined sharply, and the core profit reached the top of the calendar year in 2017, 2018, 2019, but slipped to a level worse than before only automotive parts.
In 2019, the company also had roughly $32.91 million of capitalized R&D investment reducing profit dilution.
But why should the company's total profits be better than before?
The main thing is that the company's revenue-based profits have become more, and revenue-based profits are mainly government grants and financial product gains, which together contributed more earnings than the company's core profits from its main business in 2018 and 2019. This is discussed in more detail below.
Earnings-based profits show a very clear pattern of complementarity with main business profits: in 2017, when core profits were the highest, earnings-based profits were the lowest, in 2018, when core profits were the lowest, earnings-based profits were the highest, and in 2019, the ratio of core profits to earnings-based profits is 1:1.17.
As the company cuts into the metamaterials business, instead, the revenue class profit exceeds the core profit. So, after the transformation of the light after the technology rely on "super materials" is not really bull.
02
Performance doubling is expected to speculate on the stock price
But this does not prevent the light of the technology's share price in just one month, four times, from 7 dollars to 30 dollars.
And that's mostly because it gave the market a sense that the tide was turning and the bull was about to cash in.
In mid-July, first released a profit year-on-year increase of 30% -50% of the semi-annual results forecast, followed by the announcement of the company's production capacity to hit the full, Silver Star base to complete the expansion of production capacity, production capacity to 8,000 kilograms, plans to invest a total of 1.49 billion of the Shunde base project, the first phase of the construction has been completed, is expected to be put into operation in December of this year, the production capacity can reach 40,000 kilograms, can meet the Customers on the metamaterials cutting-edge equipment products in the next 3-5 years of delivery needs.
On July 21, the company issued another announcement, saying that the subsidiary Guangqi tip recently became an important customer in Chengdu outsourcing qualified supplier.
Together with the recent strong military industry, the company released a number of good superimposed on the light of the technology straight to the sky. During the share price rise, some of the company's shareholders have appeared to reduce.
In terms of the Silver Star base, the base is said to be the company's only production base for the production of metamaterials cutting-edge equipment. 2019, the sales of cutting-edge equipment products is 3,100 kilograms, and the capacity utilization rate is 78%, the recent expansion of the Silver Star base from 4,000 kilograms/year production capacity to 8,000 kilograms/year, and is currently in a state of full production.
The company's sales are based on sales, full production state means that these expanded capacity are supported by customer orders.
And after the Shunde base went into operation in December, the first phase of the completion of the production capacity can reach 40,000 kilograms, enabling the company to large-scale, batch production and delivery, to meet the customer's demand for the delivery of ultramaterials cutting-edge equipment products in the next 3-5 years.
And the light of the above data is based on the measurement of the basis is based on the signed 180 million contracts and expected orders and other information, according to the 2019 sales of 3,100 kilograms, revenue of 156 million, 2020 has signed an order of 180 million roughly need to consume 3,600 kilograms, coupled with the company's sales of seasonal laws, the second half of the order will be higher than the first half of the year, so on the Silver Star base to expand production to 8000 kilograms, belongs to the category of still believe, according to the silver star base of this capacity, the company's orders in 2020 should be to triple the rhythm, income in accordance with the node confirmation, 2020 full-year income should be better than in 2019.
Based on this expectation, the company's share price is therefore pulled up.
But what about the Shunde base project? In Lei's opinion, it is not very credible , it is actually the company's changed fund-raising project, the type of products produced is the same as the Silver Star base, the end of this year will be able to reach 40,000 kg/year production capacity, but starting from 2023, a phase in order to gradually enter the full capacity of the state, The company also prompted the projected under the utilization of production capacity with a certain degree of uncertainty After reading the following, perhaps you will have a sense of déjà vu on this project. 03 Changing fund-raising projects and incredible borrowing Lightning technology from the automotive spare parts business cut to the metamaterials business, although the latter seems to be a lot of high tech, but essentially are still manufacturing enterprises, the structure of assets should be The main fixed assets, construction in progress and other such operating assets. However, its asset structure has undergone a major change: from the original non-current assets to mainly liquid assets, 2017-2019, current assets accounted for more than 85%. The main reason is the high balance of money funds on the books of Guangqi Technology, and in 2017-2019, more than 77% of the current assets, which accounted for more than 85% of the current assets, are made up of money funds and transactional financial assets (structured deposits). Is it good cash flow to do military business? Obviously not, the main reason for maintaining such a high liquidity is that the company in 2017 occurred a whopping 6.838 billion fixed increase, as of 2019, the company only spent out 1.247 billion, the amount of change of use of 3.36 billion, and the total amount of unused fund-raising 5.92 billion. Because of the large amount of idle, resulting in the company had to be used to buy financial : 2017-2019, the company spent 2.65 billion, 5.8 billion, 2.65 billion for financial management, while the corresponding only invested 0.74 billion, 142 million, 332 million for the purchase of operating assets. A small amount of money for the industrialization of metamaterials, but the company has cut into the "metamaterials" business after the higher government subsidies than the original do auto parts business. As well as this in the name of metamaterials industrialization and metamaterials R & D center construction to raise the amount of up to 6.838 billion of the fixed increase, but obtained up to 5.92 billion of idle funds used to buy wealth management. Perhaps the light is the feeling that the money used in the production are not as good as the money to buy financial management, get government subsidies to get a high return on investment. The fact is also true. The light of the 2017 acquisition of the related parties to the "light of the tip" is the main implementation of the company's metamaterials business, there are performance assessment objectives: 2017-2019, the need to complete no less than 0.37 billion, 0.41 billion, 0.44 billion performance commitment, the light of the tip of the actual completion of the performance of each year 37.79 million, 44.48 million, 73.56 million, cumulative about 0.005 million, the actual completion of the performance of the tip of the light of the company's metamaterials business. And the company is engaged in the "metamaterials" business, in 2017-2019 to obtain government subsidies and financial gains were 0.32 billion, 0.84 billion, 107 million, cumulative gains of 223 million, higher than the main business gains of 0.67 billion, is a more cost-effective business. In addition, why Ray said the fundraising project is a gimmick? Let's take a look at this February 2017 has been raised to complete, respectively, plans to invest 5.397 billion, 1.44 billion for the industrialization of the metamaterials business and the construction of research and development centers of the project, nearly 2 years have passed, the investment progress of these two projects are only only 1%, 0.19%, respectively. At the end of 2018, with only 2.71 million invested in the R&D center project, the company changed the fundraising project again, not to build the R&D center building, but to use it for network construction and information system construction. At the same time, about 500 million of idle fundraising funds were used to supplement liquidity. Leaving aside the inefficiency of spending money, the company's wave of real "tangible" assets into "intangible, not good measurement" of the network and information systems construction, but also the completion of the project to extend the operation of 1 year, can be said to have a special intention. 1 year in the past, network construction and information system construction projects were only invested 0, 46 million progress, 2019, the company continued to change part of the proceeds for 2 new projects "construction of Shunde, Shenyang industrial base", while 1 billion idle funds for supplementary working capital. Among them, the Shunde industrial base in the 2019 annual report disclosed in the "time to reach the intended state of use" is 2025, so the above 40,000 kilograms / year of production capacity feels like the rhythm of first painting a big cake for the respect. And the original old project, the progress is still less than 1%, stagnation. The above operation is summarized as money spent, but the name of the money spent is changed around, and only thunder does not rain. What is even more mind-boggling is that, in the case of the company has a large amount of idle fundraising, 2018, 2019, respectively, changed 500 million, 1 billion funds for supplementary liquidity, capital expenditures less, the company is surprisingly in 2018, 2019, respectively, 267 million, 935 million borrowings in 2018, 2019, the company has 0.03 million short-term borrowing balance and 140 million long-term borrowing balance, and the nature of the long-term borrowing is a pledged borrowing. So far, one has to wonder whether the company's fundraising is real or not? 04 Conclusion 2020, the tip of the light of the light of the first year after the performance commitment period, according to the light of the light of the technology of the announcement of this good, if there is no bragging rights in the ingredients, 2020 performance is better In 2019, but not again in bragging rights, fund-raising projects can still be successfully promoted, we and see.