A few days ago, Gaode Maps, Baidu Maps and Tencent Maps have used their own background big data and transportation departments and other agencies statistical data of the past Spring Festival combined, launched their respective "2020 Spring Festival Travel Forecast Report". (The following will use the Baidu version of the Spring Festival travel forecast report as a data reference) Baidu Maps released the "report" is divided into population migration forecasts, traffic forecasts, domestic travel forecasts, overseas travel forecasts, as well as travel weather forecasts of the five parts of the masters here on the selection of the population migration and traffic two points to analyze to you.
One, the population migration forecast
Although the respective statistics and forecast data from different sources, but the final data reflect a problem, the 27th of Lunar New Year will usher in the Spring Festival small peak, the first six of the year ushered in the Spring Festival after the highest peak gradually decline, after the first sixteen will slowly fall back to normal.
Prior to the Spring Festival holiday, the country's population migration gradually climbed, and is expected to see a small peak of population migration on the 27th day of the Lunar New Year, followed by a gradual decline in population migration, and on New Year's Eve for the lowest level of Spring Festival migration.
(Baidu Maps "2020 Spring Festival Travel Forecast Report")
The second half of the Spring Festival holiday, affected by the concentrated demand for return trip factors, is expected to appear on the sixth day of Lunar New Year's Eve, the highest peak of Spring Festival population migration. After the Spring Festival holiday, the national population migration will again gradually decline, but because some people will not start returning until after the 15th day of the first lunar month, it is expected that the 16th day of the first lunar month will once again see a small peak of population migration.
The guru suggests: plan your travel time wisely, stagger the peak period, return a day or two earlier or take a day or two off work and return after the peak.
Before the Spring Festival, the national population is expected to move out of the city is mainly concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region, which are more economically developed "iron triangle". Among them, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing ranked the top 3, the population moved out of the city TOP10, Guangdong cities accounted for 4 seats. It is expected that the national population moved into the city TOP10 for Zhoukou, Fuyang, Shangrao, Ganzhou, Maoming, Shangqiu, Huanggang, Xinyang, Hengyang, Zhanjiang.
The "Reverse Spring Festival" that has emerged in recent years will also become more and more evident during the 2020 Spring Festival, and will become a Chinese specialty. In the past, it was young people working outside who went back to their hometowns to celebrate the New Year, but in recent years, more and more elderly people and children are choosing the "reverse spring transportation (or reverse migration)" during the Spring Festival to join their families in big cities and celebrate the festival.
It is predicted that before the Spring Festival in 2020, the three cities of Chongqing, Beijing and Guangzhou will become the TOP 3 destination cities for the reverse spring transportation (or reverse migration) of the country's population.
The guru suggests that the "reverse spring transportation" can reduce the travel congestion to a certain extent, and it is recommended that families with a strong sense of traditional customs can try this kind of transportation. The family that is not strong in traditional customs can try this different way of celebrating the New Year and experience the "New Year's flavors" of other cities.
Two, traffic forecast
During the Spring Festival, high speed will be ushered in the morning of the second day of the New Year congestion small peaks, after all, the second day of the New Year has the custom of returning to his mother's home, the travel demand increased, is expected to usher in the day of the second day of the New Year high speed traffic jams began at about 11:00 a.m..
It is expected that the highest peak of high-speed congestion appeared on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, that is, the second half of the Spring Festival holiday, and the same time as the population migration, compatriots returning home for the Lunar New Year will be in the Lunar New Year's Eve move to return to their homes, high-speed travel is gradually increasing, the Lunar New Year on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year (January 30th) at about 16:00 p.m. appeared the highest peak of the country's high-speed traffic congestion.
As for the high-speed traffic, it is expected that the national high-speed traffic will begin to appear on the second day of the New Year a significant rise, and continue to the first six of the New Year, it is expected that the national high-speed traffic will be in the first seven days of the New Year back down to normal levels.
The guru suggests: you can make up sleep and other ways to travel when the traffic flow is in the valley or lower level of the day, for example, between 12:00 and 16:00 on the second and sixth day of the Lunar New Year for the lower traffic flow time period, 22:00 to 4:00 the next day for the lowest traffic flow time period.
Finally, the guru re-emphasized: long-distance driving or night driving, please pay attention to reasonable arrangements for rest time, do not fatigue driving, happy New Year's Eve, safe return!
This article comes from the author of the automobile home car family number, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.