Liaoning has a net annual population inflow of 200,000 people, and Shenyang and Dalian have large population inflows
Core tip: The researcher analyzed the fifth census data and the sixth census data of the three northeastern provinces Comparing the data, it was found that the population in the three eastern provinces changed from a net inflow to a net outflow. However, the situation in Liaoning Province is different from that of the three eastern provinces as a whole. Judging from the "Sixth Census" data, Liaoning Province is still a province with a net inflow of population, with an annual net inflow of approximately 200,000 people.
Researchers compared the fifth census data with the sixth census data in the three northeastern provinces and found that the population in the three northeastern provinces changed from a net inflow to a net outflow. There was a net inflow of 360,000 people during the “Fifth Census” and a net outflow of 2 million during the “Sixth Census”.
However, the situation in Liaoning Province is different from that of the three eastern provinces as a whole. Judging from the "Sixth Census" data, Liaoning Province is still a province with a net inflow of population, with an annual net inflow of approximately 200,000 people.
However, if we compare the “Fifth Census” and the “Sixth Census” in Liaoning Province, we can find that the population gathering capacity of Liaoning Province has been significantly weakened.
On February 28, the Liaoning Provincial Academy of Social Sciences released the "Liaoning Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of Liaoning's Economic and Social Situation in 2016", which provides an analysis of the economic, social, income, security, medical and health aspects of 2016. Predict development trends.
Population: Liaoning’s population is still a net inflow
The blue book points out that from the comparison of the fifth census data and the sixth census data of the three northeastern provinces, the population has changed from a net inflow to transition to a net outflow state. During the “Fifth Census”, the net population inflow was 360,000, and during the “Sixth Census”, there was a net population outflow of 2 million.
However, judging from the "Sixth Census" data, Liaoning Province is still a province with a net inflow of population, with an annual net inflow of approximately 200,000 people.
In the two census data, the ratio of permanent population to registered population in Liaoning Province was 113:100 during the “Fifth Census”, while the ratio of permanent population in Liaoning Province during the “Sixth Census” was 113:100. The ratio to the registered population is 103:100. This ratio calculation reflects to a certain extent the degree of population agglomeration of the regional economy in Liaoning Province. When this ratio is greater than 120, it is called a strong population concentration area; when it is greater than 110 and less than 120, it is called a medium population concentration area; when it is greater than 100 and less than 110, it is called a weak population concentration area; when it is less than 100, it is called a net population loss area.
Interpretation: Comparing the "net population outflow" situation in the three northeastern provinces, Liaoning's population is still a net inflow, especially in cities like Shenyang and Dalian, which have large population inflows.
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The labor force aged 35-60 accounts for 44%
Liaoning’s labor force tends to age. The blue book points out that from the perspective of the aging degree and trend of the labor force in Liaoning Province, the working-age population aged 18-35 in 2005 was 11.018 million, accounting for 26.30% of the total population; the working-age population aged 35-60 was 17.787 million, accounting for 26.30% of the total population; the working-age population aged 35-60 was 17.787 million, accounting for 26.30% of the total population. The total population proportion is 42.46%.
By 2013, the working-age population aged 18-35 dropped to 9.888 million, and its proportion dropped to 23.33%; the working-age population aged 35-60 increased to 18.666 million, and its proportion increased to 18.666 million. 44.05%.
It shows that the labor force population in Liaoning Province is mainly middle-aged, and the age composition is gradually aging, and the aging trend is obvious. This not only affects the social activity benefits of Liaoning's current economy, but also directly affects the future labor supply, employment age structure and the long-term sustainability of future economic development.
However, between 1982 and 2010, the per capita number of years of education received by employees in Liaoning increased significantly. The average number of years of education per capita was 7.86 years in 1982, and reached 9.73 years in 2010. The proportion of employees with a bachelor's degree increased significantly from 2000 to 2010, from 2.18% to 5.48%.
Interpretation: The higher the quality of the labor force, the greater the internal capital content, and the more it can promote economic development.
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The proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above increased by 2.43 percentage points in 10 years
Liaoning Province conducted a survey in 2010 In the sixth census, the population aged 0-14 was 4,996,977, a decrease of 2,396,058 people compared to the 7,393,035 people in the "Fifth Census". The proportion of children in the total population dropped to 11.42%. The population aged 15-64 was There were 34,239,905 people, accounting for 78.27% of the total population, an increase of 31,05,734 people compared to the 31,134,171 people in the “Fifth Census”. The population aged 65 and above reached 4,509,441, an increase of 1,212,235 people compared to the 3,297,206 people in the "Fifth Census". The proportion of the elderly population in Liaoning Province increased to 10.31%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared with the “Fifth Census”.
Judging from the age structure distribution of the population in Liaoning Province in 2013, the proportion of the population over 60 years old reached 19.13%, and the proportion of the population over 60 years old in Dalian, Dandong, Jinzhou and other cities has exceeded 20%. Judging from the speed of population aging, the "Sixth Census" data shows that it only took 10 years for the elderly population coefficient in Shenyang to increase from 7.88% to 10.31%.
From a national perspective, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above increased from 6.96% in 2000 to 8.87% in 2010, an increase of only 1.91 percentage points in 10 years, while in Liaoning Province it increased in 10 years 2.43 percentage points.
Interpretation: Population aging will increase the proportion of the consuming population and reduce the proportion of the productive labor force. The current aging labor force structure in Liaoning Province requires the industrial structure to shift toward capital- and technology-intensive upgrading.
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Economic aspect: Fiscal revenue is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first half of 2016
The blue book pointed out that 2015 is Liaoning's economy has been transitioning from a medium-to-high-speed growth stage. However, it should also be noted that in 2015, Liaoning's price level remained stable, agricultural production developed steadily, industrial structure upgrades accelerated, energy consumption further decreased, and the development environment gradually improved. There are still many bright spots in economic development.
As the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, various expenditures related to residents' lives in Liaoning Province have risen instead of falling. Social development still maintains a good momentum, and the broad masses of the people can share more and more equitably. The results of reform and development have been achieved. In 2015, the income of urban and rural residents in Liaoning continued to grow, and the sources of income became increasingly diversified; the emerging service industry became a new channel to absorb new jobs; ten key tasks of medical reform were launched to benefit the people, and the reform of the medical insurance system was further deepened; the results of shanty town reconstruction were further consolidated; Anti-poverty work has entered a new stage of refined management; unprecedented levels of streamlining administration and delegating power have fully stimulated market vitality; and social governance has been intensified. However, problems existing in the fields of income distribution, population, employment, medical insurance, social assistance, streamlining administration and decentralizing power, and social governance cannot be ignored.
However, good economic development will inevitably push fiscal revenue up. Judging from the fiscal revenue trend from January to August 2015, the decline in Liaoning Province’s fiscal revenue will continue to narrow in the second half of 2015. It is expected that by 2016 It is expected to stabilize and recover in the first half of the year.
In terms of income: The income of urban residents at the beginning and end of the year was the same as in the second and third quarters.
From the per capita income data from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, the per capita income of urban residents can Disposable income is basically the same in the second and third quarters of each year. The first quarter is often significantly higher than the value in any quarter of the previous year, and has a steady upward trend. For example, in the first three quarters of 2013, the per capita disposable income of urban residents remained at around 6,600 yuan, reached 6,805.78 yuan in the fourth quarter, and remained between 7,200 and 7,400 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The per capita income of urban and rural households in Liaoning Province shows an increasing trend every year. In 2006, the per capita disposable income of urban households in Liaoning Province was 10,369.6 yuan, which reached 29,081.8 yuan in 2014, a nominal increase of 180.5%.
The income sources of urban and rural residents are diversified. From the perspective of changes in various income sources, in the per capita annual total income of urban households, the proportion of work income in total income has shown a downward trend, falling from 59.95% in 2008 to 56.91% in 2013, while net operating income has Showing an upward trend, it increased from 9.37% in 2008 to 10.79% in 2013. This shows that urban households tend to start their own businesses or run part-time businesses in order to broaden their income channels.
Generally speaking, the income structure of urban households in Liaoning Province is dominated by wage income, supplemented by transfer income, and the proportion of net operating income shows an increasing trend.
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The reform of the wage income system of government agencies and institutions will have a positive impact
The "Blue Book" stated that from the state-owned Looking at the data on the average wages of employees in economic units, in absolute terms, the average wages of employees in state-owned enterprises or government institutions show an increasing trend.
For example, in 2009, the average salary of employees in state-owned enterprises was 30,470 yuan, that of employees in public institutions was 34,004 yuan, and that of employees in government agencies was 35,318 yuan. By 2011, the average salary of employees in the three departments exceeded 40,000 yuan. By 2013 Except for the average salary of employees in government agencies, which is 44,011 yuan, the average salary of employees in state-owned enterprises and public institutions exceeds 45,000 yuan.
However, in terms of the growth rate of the average salary of employees in state-owned enterprises, government agencies and institutions, the three have both similarities and differences. The same thing is that since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the average growth rate of employees in state-owned enterprises, government agencies and public institutions has shown a downward trend. Compared with the same period, the average salary increase of active employees in order from high to low was state-owned enterprises, public institutions and government agencies. For example, in 2012, the average salary increases of the three were 9.96%, 8.32% and 5.53% respectively, and in 2013 they were 7.82%, 6.37% and 3.31% respectively. The difference is that the average salary growth rate of state-owned enterprise employees has an inverted "U"-shaped trend that first rises and then falls, reaching a maximum value of 17.11% in 2011, and then dropped to 7.82% in 2013. The average salary increase of employees in public institutions and government agencies has basically shown a continuous downward trend.
The "Blue Book" stated that in June 2015, the reform of the wage income distribution system of government agencies and public institutions in Liaoning Province began. After the reform, the government agencies and public institutions reduced the proportion of allowances and subsidies and increased the proportion of basic wages, which is conducive to Optimize the salary structure, further improve the salary distribution methods and incentive and restraint mechanisms for state-owned enterprise managers, and appropriately increase the salary income level of grassroots civil servants. These income distribution reform policies and measures will have a positive impact on the income distribution of urban and rural residents in the province in 2016. It will also help to increase the income of low-income groups and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents
In terms of medical and health care: Liaoning’s medical staff salary accounts for less than 30% of medical expenditures
The blue book pointed out that in our province In terms of health team building, the value of medical personnel's services has been seriously underestimated. The legal salary of medical personnel in Liaoning Province accounts for less than 30% of medical expenditures, which is not commensurate with their human capital investment.
Nursing staff and grassroots medical staff have lower incomes. A salary system that meets the characteristics of the health system industry has not yet been established. The performance-based salary system implemented since the new medical reform has not fully realized its original policy intention in practice. Medical staff enthusiasm has not been fully mobilized. In addition, the doctor-patient relationship has not improved significantly, and students are not willing to enter the medical and health industry.