According to the data of June 5438+065438+1October 15 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed down by 3.0 percentage points compared with last month, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.0% year-on-year, down by 1.3 percentage points compared with last month. From 1 to 10, the national fixed assets investment increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0. 1 percentage point compared with the previous nine months. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, accelerating for six consecutive months.
Fu, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the news conference of the new office of the State Council on June 5438+05 that, on the whole, the national economy on June 5438+00 withstood the impact of multiple unexpected factors at home and abroad and continued to maintain a recovery trend. However, the international environment is more complicated and severe, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is still not solid.
Recently, the Comprehensive Group of Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council released 20 measures to further optimize the epidemic prevention and control. Fu Huiling emphasized that this is conducive to improving the scientificity and accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, maximizing the protection of people's life safety and health, and minimizing the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development. With the effective implementation of these measures, it is conducive to maintaining normal production and living order, restoring market demand and stabilizing the economic cycle.
For the next economic trend, many experts interviewed by China Business News analyzed that with the recent steady growth policy, the internal and external situation has a marginal improvement trend, including the further optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies and the overweight of real estate support policies, and the subsequent monthly data will improve. In particular, the country has recently introduced 20 measures to optimize epidemic prevention and control, and adopted a more scientific and accurate way to prevent and control the epidemic. It is expected that the economy will continue to recover in the future.
Decline in consumption growth rate
Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of consumption declined for the second consecutive month, which is also the year-on-year negative growth since June this year. 5438+ 10, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 402,765,438+billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year. The retail sales of consumer goods except automobiles decreased by 0.9%.
Fu said that from the situation of May 438+1June, due to frequent domestic epidemics, the total contact consumption in some areas was hit to some extent, especially the overall slowdown of some service consumption. From June 5438+ 10, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, of which catering income decreased by 8. 1%. Although we have seen the short-term impact on the consumer market, the basic living expenses of residents are guaranteed. The leading role of online retail in market sales continues to appear, which supports consumption to some extent.
The data shows that in the first 10 months, the online retail sales of physical goods nationwide increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which was 1. 1 percentage point faster than that in September, and boosted the market sales growth by more than 1.5 percentage point.
Fu said that from the next stage, the impact of the epidemic on market sales will still exist, but overall it is short-term and external, and China's consumption recovery still has favorable conditions. Influenced by many factors at home and abroad, consumption still faces many challenges. However, with the gradual implementation of various policies to promote consumption, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the improvement of residents' employment and the increase of income, it is still worth looking forward to.
Wang Jun, director of China Chief Economist Forum, told CBN that efforts should be made to promote consumption from three aspects. The first is to stabilize the economic operation near the potential growth rate as soon as possible. Only by maintaining rapid economic growth can we create more employment opportunities and stabilize income. The second is to stabilize consumption and investment in the real estate market. Although buying a house is an investment behavior, a series of consumption behaviors after buying a house are also an important part of family consumption; The third is to consolidate the current good situation of automobile consumption and create more conditions to maintain this good momentum.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded for six consecutive months.
Faced with the downward pressure of the economy, all parties actively promoted the implementation of stable investment policies, and the effect gradually appeared. With the strong support of special bonds and policy development financial instruments, the construction of investment projects has been steadily advanced, and the overall investment has maintained steady growth. In the first 10 month, the investment in fixed assets increased by 5.8% year-on-year.
All localities actively promote the construction of major projects such as new energy and new medicine, strengthen the manufacturing chain, strengthen the chain, and vigorously support investment in manufacturing. In the first 10 month, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, of which the investment in equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.6%, the investment in technological transformation of manufacturing industry increased by 10.4%, and the contribution of manufacturing investment growth to the total investment growth exceeded 40%.
With the acceleration of the issuance and use of local special bonds, funds for policy development of financial instruments have been effectively put into use, infrastructure construction such as transportation and water conservancy, public facilities and new infrastructure construction such as information technology and big data have been accelerated, and infrastructure investment has continued to rise. In the first 10 month, infrastructure investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated for six consecutive months.
Investment in high-tech manufacturing has also maintained a good growth trend. With the acceleration of China's industrial upgrading, industrial informationization, intelligent transformation and green transformation have continued to deepen, and related investment has grown rapidly. In the first 10 month, the investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.5% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in June-September, of which the investment in electronic communication equipment manufacturing increased by 28.7%, and the investment in R&D and design services increased by 22.5%.
Fu said that from the next stage, with the continuous emergence of the effect of the stable investment policy, investment is expected to maintain steady growth. Judging from the leading indicators, in the first 10 month, the planned total investment of newly started projects increased by 23. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months. Judging from these circumstances, the steady growth of investment will play a key role in stabilizing the economy, and the effect of promoting the optimization of supply structure will gradually emerge.
Industry shows great resilience.
In terms of industries, in June, 5438+ 10, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 5.0% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from last month. However, from the cumulative data, from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, 0. 1 percentage point faster than that in September. From the ring comparison, industries above designated size increased by 0.33% in June 5438+ 10, and continued to increase.
In response to a question from the First Financial Reporter at the press conference, Fu said that due to factors such as frequent epidemics and sluggish market demand, the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down from June to 10. On the whole, however, the trend of sustained industrial recovery has not changed, showing strong resilience.
From the perspective of specific industries, the supporting role of equipment manufacturing industry is obvious. In the month of 65438+ 10, the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.2% year-on-year, which was obviously faster than the growth rate of all industries above designated size. Among them, the automobile and electronics industries with long industrial chains increased by 18.7% and 9.4% respectively, which strongly promoted the upstream and downstream industries. The added value of the motor industry, which is closely related to the automobile industry, increased by 16.3% year-on-year.
The growth of high-tech manufacturing industry is good, the trend of industrial upgrading and development continues, and the high-tech manufacturing industry with high technology content and high added value continues to maintain rapid growth. In June 5438+ 10, the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was10.3 percentage points faster than that in September. With the rapid development of information and communication, the production and output of related industries have maintained rapid growth. On June 5,438+10, the added value of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 16.6%, and the output of mobile communication base station equipment and 5G smart phones increased by 2.8 times and 18.4% respectively.
Fu stressed that these conditions show that despite many constraints, China's industrial system is complete and its scale advantage is obvious. With the enhancement of innovation drive, the situation of structural upgrading and quality improvement continues to develop, laying a solid industrial foundation for China's economic development. In the next stage, we should implement various measures to promote the development of industrial economy and promote the sustained improvement and stable development of industrial production.
Maintain the recovery trend in the fourth quarter.
Although China's economy has faced many unexpected factors since the beginning of this year, it has continued to recover under the influence of a series of policies to stabilize the economy and despite the pressure. For the economic trend in the fourth quarter, many experts analyzed that with the economic stability package and continuation policy continuing to take effect, the economic growth rate will be better than that in the third quarter.
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that despite the impact of multiple outbreaks and further deterioration of the external environment in the fourth quarter, the convening of the 20th National Congress will generate better policy dividends, stabilize market expectations, and give more certainty to the behavior direction of market participants. In addition, with the continuous development of the effectiveness of the previous steady growth policy, the previous investment will form more physical quantities, and a package of steady growth measures will continue to exert strength. There is a high probability that the economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter, but there will still be a weak recovery in the fourth quarter due to the downturn in the real estate market.
Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities (60 1236), told CBN that the economic data of 5,438+00 in June was inevitably affected by the epidemic, but with the proposal of "optimizing 20 articles", the prevention and control in various places will not be overweight, the real estate market will stabilize, the subsequent consumption will get rid of the downturn of negative growth, and there will be a recovery trend of positive growth in the future.
Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, also believes that despite the pressure of steady growth, the characteristics of high-quality economic development and structural optimization in China are obvious. In the future, the foundation of China's economic recovery will be more solid, and it may enter the track of rapid recovery next year.