1, population

The growing population is an important factor affecting the consumption of dairy products in China. Population growth can promote the growth of total milk consumption, thus driving the development of milk production. 2010, China's total milk production reached 37.4 million tons, has exceeded Russia and Pakistan, second only to India and the United States, ranking third in the world. China's milk production rate from 1949 to 2010, the annual growth rate of 9.21%, among the world's leading. According to FAO statistics, in 2010, the world's total milk production of 720,980,000 tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, 36.5% of these increases from China. Undoubtedly, the population growth is also an important factor. Due to China's large population base, the per capita consumption of milk has been at a low level, making the per capita possession of milk in the world is still in the 100th place after the 2010, China's per capita milk possession of 26.65 kg, while the world per capita milk possession of milk during the same period amounted to 98 kg, an average of 40 kg in Asian countries, South Korea 56 kg, Japan 70 kg, India 73 kg. research. The study shows that the total population of our country will pass the peak period only after 2030. Therefore, the continuous growth of the total population will be an important motive for the development of the dairy industry; and the large population base also determines that China's per capita consumption of milk will be in the world for a long time at a relatively low level. At the same time, a country's total population and the country's per capita national income level is closely related to the level of purchasing power of consumers, purchasing choices and consumption patterns have a direct impact on the consumer's milk consumption will also affect consumers.

2, GDP per capita

GDP per capita is an important indicator of a country's level of economic development. With the growth of GDP per capita, the milk consumption expenditure of urban residents also increases gradually (Table 5-1). 1990, when the GDP per capita in Xinjiang was 1,713 yuan, the milk consumption expenditure per capita of urban residents was 14.20 yuan; while in 2010, when the GDP per capita in Xinjiang increased to 25,057 yuan, the above index reached 164.52 yuan. Various studies show that in the next 20 years, China's per capita GDP annual growth rate will be maintained at about 7% level, the total GDP will reach 4 trillion U.S. dollars, the continued growth of GDP will further stimulate the consumption of milk. (See Table 5-2).

Table 5-2 shows the milk consumption expenditure of urban residents in Xinjiang and the GDP per capita in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010. It can be seen that with the growth of per capita GDP, the milk consumption expenditure also grows gradually. In this paper, X denotes the per capita GDP of Xinjiang, Y denotes the per capita milk consumption expenditure of urban residents, using the data of per capita GDP of Xinjiang and per capita milk consumption expenditure of urban residents of Xinjiang, a one-way linear regression is carried out, and the following results are obtained: The results show that the process of growth of milk consumption expenditure in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010 is consistent with the rapid growth of the national economy. The correlation coefficient between urban residents' per capita milk consumption expenditure and per capita GDP is 0.970 (P<0.0001), which indicates that urban residents' milk consumption expenditure and per capita GDP have a highly significant positive correlation, and milk consumption expenditure is greatly influenced by per capita GDP. In addition, the proportion of milk consumption expenditures in food consumption expenditures has been increasing year by year, from 2.7% in 1990 to 4.5% in 2010, with a peak of 5.6% in 2004.

3 urban residents' income level Income is the basis of consumption, changes in income will have a direct impact on consumer demand for certain goods and even changes in the structure of consumer spending. The change of income here mainly refers to the real income of consumers.

(1) per capita milk consumption and per capita disposable income growth

Figure 5-1 below shows that China's urban residents' income has been growing steadily year by year, milk consumption showed a first growth and then a downward trend, after 2001, per capita milk consumption grew faster than the growth rate of the income of the urban population, to 2004, the growth rate of dairy consumption began to decline. The growth rate of dairy consumption began to decline after 2004. In this paper, the correlation between per capita disposable income and per capita milk consumption of urban residents in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010 is analyzed by regression analysis, and the following results are obtained: Y0.656X(F14.317R0.6560.4302R), in which X denotes the per capita disposable income in Xinjiang and Y denotes the per capita consumption of milk by urban residents. The results show that the rapid growth process of milk consumption in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010 is consistent with the growth of per capita disposable income. The correlation coefficient between per capita disposable income and per capita milk consumption of urban residents is 0.656 (P<0.0001), indicating that the per capita milk consumption of urban residents in Xinjiang is significantly and positively correlated with income.

(2)Per capita milk consumption expenditure and per capita disposable income grows synchronously

Table 5-3 shows the disposable income, food consumption expenditure and milk consumption expenditure of urban residents in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2010. It can be seen that the proportion of milk consumption expenditures in food consumption expenditures generally shows an upward trend, from 2.7% in 1990 to 4.5% in 2010. As can be seen from Table 5-3, with the increase of per capita disposable income, the consumption expenditure on milk grows gradually. Using the data of per capita disposable income and milk consumption expenditures, linear regression is carried out, with X denoting the per capita disposable income of urban residents and Y denoting the per capita dairy consumption expenditures, and the following results are obtained:

The results show that there is a highly significant positive correlation between the milk consumption expenditures and the per capita disposable income, with the correlation coefficient of 0.978, and that the milk consumption expenditures are greatly affected by the income, and it hasn't yet It has not yet entered a stable period.

4Dietary structure

With the rapid development of China's economy, the consumption structure and dietary structure of urban and rural residents in China will undergo a fundamental transformation, and the consumption structure of urban and rural residents has also realized the transformation from poverty to subsistence to the basic realization of the well-off to the gradual transformation to the comprehensive well-off. Engel's coefficient is an important indicator for evaluating the stage of food consumption of a country's residents, which refers to the proportion of food expenditure to personal consumption expenditure, and the richer the country, the lower the proportion. According to the size of Engel's coefficient, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has a standard for dividing the standard of living of the countries in the world, which is shown in Table 5-4.

From Table 5-5, it can be seen that the consumption expenditure of the urban residents for food has been increasing year by year, but its proportion to the total consumption of the individual has been decreasing year by year. 1990 Engel's coefficient of the urban residents in Xinjiang was 47.78%, which realized the transition of subsistence to well-being; in 2000, the proportion of food expenditure to total personal consumption of the urban residents of Xinjiang was 47.78%. In 1990, the Engel coefficient of urban residents in Xinjiang was 47.78%, realizing the transition from subsistence to well-off; in 2000, it dropped to 39.44%, entering the stage of relative affluence; in 2010, it was 36.23%, gradually transitioning to the stage of abundance, with the lowest year being 2002, when it was 33.94%. In addition, as a result of changes in people's food-consumption habits and consumption structure, the proportion of food in residents' food consumption has declined markedly, in contrast to the growth in the consumption of dairy products, which is significantly faster than that of other animal foods. China's urban residents per capita consumption of meat has exceeded Japan, in the future for a long time, the total consumption of meat growth will be very slow, and nutritious milk there is a lot of room for growth.