This week can be said to be the period when the dollar was killed. The FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell both released dovish signals and were optimistic about the fundamentals of US economic recovery, which made the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds drop to 1.63% and the US dollar index drop to 92.03. However, near the weekend, the high-profile PPI data of the United States was delayed due to the collapse of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in official website. The waiting process once caused anxiety, and US stocks, US bonds and gold were sold off one after another. The US dollar index stood out from the rest, rising to a high of 92.4 1 for a short time, but then quickly falling back from the high. So is the dollar decline coming to an end, or is it a short-term market shock trend?

In view of the trend of the US dollar next week, among the analysts surveyed by FX 168, 50% of the respondents said that they were bearish on the US dollar, and another 50% held a shock view.

FX Empire analysts pointed out that the US dollar index fell below the 200-day simple moving average of 92.33, and the daily support was at 965,438+0.60, and then more support will be seen at 965,438+0 and 90. Measured by the dollar index, the dollar fell nearly 1% last week, breaking through the three-week bull stage. Technically, the highlight of next week is that the US dollar index falls below the 200-day simple moving average, which is usually interpreted as a bearish signal.

On the trend, since the US dollar index peaked in March 2020, there has been a continuous downward bias, which is formed by obvious lows and highs. Interestingly, the peak of 93.43 on March 3 1 day echoes the earlier period of the bear market wave in the current downward trend, especially after falling below the 200-day simple moving average.

The relative strength index (RSI) shows that the kinetic energy has exceeded the support level of 55.67 in the recent trend, which is now considered as a possible resistance, emphasizing the possibility that the kinetic energy will further descend to the support level of 465,438+0.24. Based on the above points, technical research believes that the US dollar will weaken further this week, with the initial target of 9 1.64.

Simon Harvey, a foreign exchange analyst at brokerage firm Monex Europe, said: "As inflation data in China and the United States stimulated the recovery of the US Treasury bond curve, the dollar has consolidated after a week of decline."

He continued to analyze: "Driven by pent-up demand, inflation is expected to intensify this year, and the weak data of last spring has been excluded from the calculation. Many States in the United States have forced the closure of non-essential businesses in order to slow down the price collapse during the COVID-19 epidemic. "

But most economists and Fed officials believe that the rise in inflation will be temporary due to the weak labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul delivered an important speech, saying that the global vaccination progress is different, which is the risk of economic recovery. Despite the bright economic prospects in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States is still incomplete and uneven. About 9 million to 6.5438 million people are still unemployed and need to continue to receive assistance. At the same time, the Fed promised to continue to support the economy.

Federal Reserve Governor brainerd also pointed out that there are obvious signs of improvement in the US economic prospects, but the number of employed people is still about 9 million less than before the epidemic. Fed officials said that they not only want to see an environment of full employment, but also hope to achieve inclusive growth in income, race and gender. He stressed: "In this sense, we still have a long way to go before the American economy can achieve results."