When will Typhoon 11 come and where will it make landfall?
From the wind and cloud satellite images, now located in the eastern region of the Philippines 90W typhoon embryo has appeared to strengthen, now the center is located in 13.0 ° N 125.3 ° EE, the wind speed has been raised to 20KT, equivalent to 10m / s, the central pressure value of 1007hpa. preliminary expected that it will continue to move to the west next, and gradually strengthen.
According to the supercomputer simulation data, 90W is expected to become this year's No. 11 Typhoon Haixia basically can be determined, there is little room for change, so we need to focus on observing the next 90W typhoon embryo, mainly westward, then the impact of our country exists, the focus of the region is the South China zone, the following we specifically look at how the situation can be described first of all Under, due to the limited development of this typhoon embryo, may not be too strong, we are mainly for reference.
According to the GFS simulation data, 90W is now crossing the Philippines, and is expected to develop 999hpa on September 15, and then fluctuate at 1,000hpa, and then form a stable typhoon embryo on September 16, which is expected to reach 996hpa on September 16, and then continue to weaken slowly to the west. The storm is expected to reach a maximum pressure of 996hpa on September 16, and then will continue to weaken slowly to the west, so if 90W becomes the 11th typhoon Hongxia this year, then the strongest may be a tropical storm level "typhoon".
And for how long it may be named, according to the GFS, not on the 15th or 16th to give the name, mainly based on the wind speed to determine the situation, if the 15 999hpa barometric pressure value of 18m / s wind speed, then give the name. Otherwise it will continue to be delayed, and the same is true for the latter.
And the data that the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) can see for the time being will also be upgraded to TD on September 16th, so a gale warning may be issued, but the naming situation JMA is not optimistic for the time being, and there is still room for change. Here's another look at the European Numerical Center, which expects that the typhoon may form a little later, and is expected to reach a pressure value of 997hpa only on September 17, so this is the time when there is a probability that it will become this year's No. 11 Typhoon Rouge, and after that, it will also continue to move westward.
From the perspective of the general route, in fact, the route of the GFS and EC are far away from China's southern China, and at the same time in the GFS simulation, we can also see that the subtropical high pressure has been appearing to strengthen the situation, and even Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and other parts of the region at this time are covered. So this may not be a good storm.
So if we look at the situation from the GFS, it is possible that South China in this period of time, the influence of the warmer climate may have to be a little stronger, rather than large-scale cooling weather, of course, if not unexpected, sweltering heat may be the most dominant weather in most areas, so look at the late stage of the situation will not happen to a certain degree of transformation, it is clear that the strength of the subtropical high in the last few days is very obvious performance, this is the 90W typhoon embryo today.
The changes in the marine region to see the end, we come to look at China's next land area, today's widespread rainfall has been formed in the central and eastern regions, this wave of rainfall is the development of the west to the east, and the coverage of the region is very wide, while the duration of the time is also relatively long in the Yangtze River Basin to the south, the Northeast, North China and other places have a clear coverage of the region.
According to the data, on September 15, located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, northeastern Hunan, northern Jiangxi, southern Guizhou, southeastern Tibet and other parts of the region with heavy rainfall, the strongest amount of rainfall reached 90 millimeters. 9/16, rainfall will be further upgraded in the northern part of Zhejiang, southeastern Chongqing, southern Anhui, and other places in part of the region also has scattered rainstorms, the strongest rainfall upgraded to 95 mm, so the rain is very obvious in the continued enhancement after the September 17 or so, the rain will slowly weaken, this is the overall rain situation, but after this wave, 18-20, 20-23 will also be in different areas of the successive rainfall process, localized rainstorms or heavy rain, so the next rainfall is still a little more, we should pay attention to the rainfall The distribution of rainfall is still a bit much.
At the same time in the next 10 days of cumulative rain can also be seen, most of the southern region is 100 mm to 250 mm of cumulative rainfall area, in which almost all of the southern region is covered by rainfall, so the rain is very obvious, the rain in the fall can be said to be relatively less than the summer a little bit, but the impact of the scope is still larger, but also need to focus on attention. Finally, I would like to remind you that this year's Typhoon No. 11 may be generated, although it will have an impact on South China, but the possibility is getting smaller and smaller, and if it is formed, it will be the second "fall typhoon" this year, and the intensity is expected to be much weaker compared to the first fall typhoon, "Poseidon". The typhoon is expected to be much weaker than the first fall typhoon "Poseidon", so we will be focusing on it later on, and that's probably how the typhoon embryo and the rainfall trend is going to look today.
Typhoon Bailu will make landfall in Fujian, so why are Fujian netizens still looking forward to the typhoon?
Because for so long, the weather in Fujian has been very hot, basically everyone does not want to travel the kind, so now we hear that there is a typhoon coming, people are still quite looking forward to it.
After sending off the twin typhoons Lichima and Rosa, the recent Fuzhou has been, one second clear skies the next a sudden storm, as hot as a sauna.
But from the end of last week, subtropical high pressure "blood" north lift, the energy of the Pacific Ocean immediately power, all of a sudden made three typhoon embryos.
These are the unnumbered tropical depression east of Taiwan, the 97W on the "warm pool" east of the Philippines, and the 98W south of Japan.
The 97W on the "warm pool" was the fattest and fastest developing, and developed into the 11th typhoon "Bailu" yesterday. Typhoon Hakushu" was developed yesterday. Although the current sea temperature in the northwest Pacific Ocean is favorable for the strengthening of "White Stag", the overall forecast is limited. Even if it makes landfall in China, the intensity will be mainly a tropical storm or strong tropical storm.
Typhoon No. 11 "White Stag" brought rain and wind, on China's Guangdong to Fujian area, causing precipitation impact. The impact of wind and rain, is mainly concentrated in the weekend two days, the main impact of the time for this Sunday, Guangdong, Fujian, and neighboring provinces will have heavy to heavy rain, localities heavy rain or even very heavy rain.
Meteorological analyst Shi Yan has said that the northwest Pacific Ocean will have two typhoons generated, the current year's 11th typhoon Bailu has been generated! This means that typhoon #12 will also follow close behind! At this moment want to ask the Fuzhou partners, typhoon embryo hypergeneration guerrillas assembled in the surprise or not?
After all, the typhoon's appearance can appear to relieve the heat of the weather in Fujian now, so the people of Fujian are still very happy to welcome the typhoon!
Which of the series of impacts brought about by the typhoon's landfall will have the greatest impact on Fujian?
Typhoons bring heavy rainfall to Fujian, which can lead to natural disasters such as flooding, as well as inconvenience for people traveling. Some typhoons can even cause direct damage to cities.
The center of this year's 11th typhoon "Bailu" is located about 355 kilometers southeast of Zhangpu County, Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, with a maximum wind of 11, intensity level of strong tropical storm. It is expected to move at a speed of about 25 kilometers per hour to the west-northwest direction, with little change in intensity. According to the forecast of Fujian Provincial Meteorological Station, from the night of the 24th to the daytime of the 25th, the coast and part of Longyan and the rest of the local counties and cities have heavy rain, including Zhangzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Putian, Longyan, five cities in the part of the county and city of heavy rain, locally extraordinarily heavy rain. Coastal and southern areas of the process rainfall up to 80-150 millimeters, localized 250 millimeters.
From the above Weather Channel forecast we can see that the typhoon has brought a lot of rainfall, seriously affecting people's daily lives, and even the possibility of triggering floods. Typhoons bring plenty of rain to a wide area and become a rainfall system that is closely related to human life and production. However, typhoons also always bring all kinds of damages, which is characterized by strong suddenness and destructive power, and is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. Typhoons are very strong rainfall systems.
When a typhoon makes landfall, the center of the rainfall can drop heavy rainfall of 100-300 millimeters in a day, or even up to 500-800 millimeters. Flooding caused by typhoon rainstorms is the most dangerous disaster. The intensity of typhoon rainstorms is high, the frequency of flooding is high, the coverage is wide, the momentum is fierce, and the destructiveness is great. Especially in coastal places, typhoons are more powerful when they make landfall, and all some people talk about typhoons.
Where did Typhoon 11 make landfall?
Typhoon 11 made landfall off the coast of Dongshan.
Typhoon No. 11 this year, "Bailu" landed on the coast of Dongshan at 7:25 p.m. on the 25th, with a maximum wind of 10 at the center and a minimum pressure of 988 hPa at the center at the time of landfall. After the typhoon landed, it will move at a speed of about 25 kilometers per hour to the west-northwest direction, and in the morning, it will pass through the southern part of Zhangzhou and enter Guangdong Province.
Under its influence, the coastal areas of Fujian Province experienced gusty winds and torrential rains. According to the statistics from 6:00 on the 24th to 6:00 on the 25th, 98 stations in 26 counties had winds exceeding 10, of which 48 stations in 15 counties had winds exceeding 11, 10 stations in 6 counties had winds exceeding 12, and 2 stations in 2 counties had winds reaching 13, with the maximum of 39 meters per second at Dabang Island in Zhangban Town of Quanzhou Taiwan Business Investment Zone.
Thirty-nine townships in eight counties received more than 50 millimeters of rainfall, of which three townships in Zhangpu exceeded 100 millimeters, with 123.2 millimeters in Nanpu Township in Zhangpu the largest, and the largest one-hour rainfall was 61.9 millimeters in Guanxun Township in Zhangpu.
Extended information:
"Second-hand typhoon" favorite landing in Fujian
The typhoon "White Stag" first landed from Taiwan, and then made a second landfall in Fujian. And looking at the past 70 years of typhoon data, nearly 90% of the typhoons that landed on Taiwan in August will land on the coast of South China for the second time.
According to the China Meteorological Network, the big data from 1949 to 2018 show that during August, 39 typhoons first landed on Taiwan, of which 34 made secondary landfall on the coast of South China, accounting for 87.2%. From the second landing place, most of the "second-hand typhoons" favor Fujian, 31 second-registered typhoons chose to "ashore" in Fujian, accounting for 91.2%; the other three typhoons in the Guangdong coast and Hong Kong second landing.
From the point of view of the landing intensity, there is often a big difference between the intensity of the first and second landings of typhoons. China Weather Network big data show that the 34 typhoons landed in Taiwan when the average wind speed of 39 m / s, for the typhoon level, while the second landing in South China when the average wind speed of about 25 m / s, only for the lower limit of the strong tropical storms, the intensity of the attenuation of the magnitude of more than 1 / 3.
China News Network - this year's No. 11 typhoon "Bailu" landed off the coast of Dongshan, Fujian
China News Network - this year's No. 11 typhoon "Bailu" landed in the Fujian Dongshan coast landed
Current status of Typhoon No. 11
The center of Typhoon No. 11 of 2019, "Bailu", has landed on the coast of Manjhou Township, Pingtung County, Taiwan Province of China, around 13:00 on August 24, with the maximum wind force near the center of the landfall at 11 levels. The "White Deer" will move toward the west-northwest direction at a speed of 25-30 kilometers per hour, with little change in intensity, and will make another landfall on the coast from Zhangpu, Fujian, to Shantou, Guangdong, in the night of 24th to the morning of 25th, and after the landfall, it will continue to move toward the west-northwest direction, with a gradual weakening of its intensity. South, eastern Guangdong, southeastern Zhejiang, southern Jiangxi, southeastern Hunan, Taiwan Island and other places in some areas have heavy to heavy rain, southeastern Fujian, eastern Guangdong, southern Jiangxi, southeastern Taiwan Island and other places in the localities have heavy rain or very heavy rain.
Why is there so much uncertainty about the path of Typhoon Bailu?
According to China's weather enthusiasts, from last weekend, subtropical high pressure "blood" to lift the north of the Pacific Ocean with enough energy to make three typhoon embryos at once! They are China's Taiwan east of the unnumbered tropical depression, the Philippines east of the "warm pool" on the 97W, as well as Japan south of the 98W.
August 20, the northwest Pacific three typhoon embryo diagram, in the gas love in the Fengyun 4 meteorological satellite cloud charts on the label. Among them, the "warm pool" on the 97W form the fattest, the fastest development of the major supercomputer model response. 2 p.m. on August 20, the Japan Meteorological Agency even issued a gale warning, that it will develop into a No. 11 typhoon "White Stag" within 24 hours.
So, what is the future path of the 11th typhoon? China Weather meteorological analyst Shi Yan said the next ten days in the northwest Pacific Ocean will have two typhoons generated, around August 24th there will be a typhoon affecting the southeast coast. At present, there is a tropical low pressure east of the Philippines in the development of the next 24 hours may develop into the 11th typhoon Bailu this year, there are two possibilities in the late stage, one is the landfall of China's southeastern coastal area; the second is to turn, northward to Japan. Please stay tuned for timely updates as there is still uncertainty about the path of the late stage.
Also according to the China Weather Channel meteorological analyst weatherman_Xinxin analysis: this morning the Japan Meteorological Agency to maintain the Philippines east of the tropical low pressure intensity assessment, the current development is still relatively slow, may not be able to number in the afternoon, to see if tonight or tomorrow morning can be upgraded to No. 11 Typhoon Bailu. The future path of this system is still highly divergent. Figure 2 U.S. numerical ensemble forecast continues to give a northward turn, but with some westward adjustment of the turning point. Figure 3 Canadian ensemble forecast and Figure 4 European numerical forecast, giving landfall in China.
The key to the later path will be in the 23-24 day period, depending on the strength of the typhoon and the shape of the subheight. Due to the great difference between the high and low altitude subheights, the upper troposphere in the upper subheight is strong, like a high wall or dam blocking the north side of the typhoon, not conducive to the typhoon's northward movement, but the low altitude subheight is weak in the east and the north side of the passable. Therefore, if the typhoon is strong and tall, it will be a northwestbound landfall in China. But if the typhoon is weak, short, low-level guidance to the north, not landing in China.