Constantly improve the long-term management mechanism
Zhang, director of the real estate market supervision department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that in the next step, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will strictly manage the "three-line and four-file" financing of real estate enterprises and the centralized management of real estate loans of financial institutions, and resolutely investigate and deal with illegal business loans, consumer loans and house purchase credit loans. It is necessary to speed up the improvement of the working mechanism of "stabilizing land prices", optimize the rules of land auction, and establish an effective audit system for land purchase funds of enterprises.
Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that in order to enhance the marketization, standardization and transparency of financing for real estate enterprises, the central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "three lines and four files" detailed rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises in August last year. One year later, the three core operating financial indicators of the pilot enterprises, namely, asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio and short-term cash debt ratio, all improved significantly, the debt scale declined steadily, the financing behavior became more prudent and self-disciplined, and the overall operation tended to be stable.
At the same time, the central bank has also formulated a centralized management system for real estate loans of banking financial institutions. Since the implementation of the policy, the concentration of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banking financial institutions has steadily declined, accounting for 0.6% of the total real estate loans, of which the proportion of personal housing loans has decreased by 0.2%.
Zou Lan said that in the next step, the central bank will continue to improve the long-term mechanism of real estate financial management around the goal of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations; Adhere to the positioning of "housing without speculation" and promote the balanced development of finance, real estate and real economy.
Housing enterprises have adjusted and optimized their financial structure.
The real estate industry is highly dependent on capital. Once financing supervision is tightened, housing enterprises will be greatly affected.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the reporter of China Consumer News that the "three red lines" in the "three lines and four files" mean that the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times. According to the situation of stepping on the line, real estate enterprises are divided into four grades: red, orange, yellow and green.
Since the release of "three lines and four gears", housing enterprises have adjusted and optimized their financial structure. According to the statistics of RealData, 40% of the listed real estate enterprises in 2020 100 were successfully downgraded; There are 29 green-file housing enterprises, which is more than half of that of 12 in 20 19.
According to the data of the central bank, as of the end of June, the growth rate of RMB real estate loans dropped by 2.2 percentage points compared with the end of last year, among which the growth rate of individual housing loans dropped by 1.6 percentage points compared with the end of last year.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at RealData, told the reporter of China Consumer News that "three lines and four files" are of great significance to the whole real estate industry, and the debt reduction of housing enterprises exceeded expectations after a year of trial.
Li, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that since the second half of last year, the property market in some areas has been hot, not because the regulatory policies have been loosened, but because the financial sector is "not well managed and well managed". Recently, with banks cracking down on commercial loans and consumer loans and carrying out capital penetration supervision, the property market has cooled rapidly. "Shenzhen is an obvious example," Li said.
Promotion may increase in the second half of the year.
Regarding the trend of the real estate market in the second half of the year, Liu Shui, deputy director of enterprise research at China Finger Research Institute, believes that the financing environment will continue to tighten, the channel restrictions will increase, and the developer's capital chain will continue to be tight. Under this general trend, it is an important task to ensure adequate cash flow.
In Liu Shui's view, to ensure cash flow, first, increase sales promotion and speed up sales collection; The second is to take the land cautiously and slow down the pace of land acquisition; The third is to explore new financing channels, such as green bond financing.
"In the context of tight financing, all housing enterprises should actively broaden financing channels, grasp financing windows and strengthen financing cooperation." Chen Xiao, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, told the reporter of China Consumer News that in the second half of the year, it is expected that the pace of land acquisition by real estate enterprises will slow down, and at the same time, marketing efforts will be intensified to speed up sales repayment. "At present, the most common way for real estate enterprises to ensure cash flow is to strengthen the sales return rate. This' open source' approach is more active, and it will also adopt' throttling' methods such as reducing land acquisition, adjusting the pace of new construction, reducing project allocation, and reducing management and sales expenses. " He said.
Xu Xiaole believes that real estate enterprises should fully evaluate the cost and income of land acquisition before taking land, optimize the design of residential schemes, and make reasonable pricing to avoid crowding out the cost of product quality construction due to excessive land premium.