Recently, 25 of the 3/kloc-0 A-share listed banks released 20 18 performance reports, 3354, indicating that the banking industry is hard to make a profit. For example, China Industrial and Commercial Bank, the largest bank in the universe, made a net profit of about 286 billion in 20 18, easily crushing the AT duopoly.
Not just ICBC. Fortune's list of China's Top 500 20 18 shows that 15' s profits also come from banks.
However, Ali's online merchant bank is at the bottom of the profit list.
Is it a bad customer of online merchant bank? It is true that the number of small and micro enterprises served by online merchant banks ranks first in the whole industry with -. 1.5 million households.
Why is the three-year-old online merchant bank so popular with customers, so fast, but not making money?
Good model, poor business?
In China, it is difficult for small and micro enterprises (private enterprises) to get loans. Small and micro enterprises have contributed 80% of employment, more than 60% of GDP and more than 50% of tax revenue in China.
However, small and micro enterprise loans have always been a big problem, and the loan refusal rate of small lending institutions has even reached 70%.
At this year's National People's Congress, Guo Shuqing, Party Secretary of the People's Bank of China, talked about "financial support for private enterprises". In addition to big banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, he also praised Internet banks such as online merchant bank and Weizhong bank by name, encouraging them to support the development of small and micro enterprises.
What looks like praise is actually a request and a task.
In recent years, small and micro enterprises have been promoted by high-level regulatory authorities. Under the policy-driven and regulatory requirements, state-owned banks that are not short of money have taken out the net profit of their main business and are determined not to make money or even lose money. Transfusion of 3354 to small and micro enterprises is a good model called by policy and urgently needed by the market.
However, the largest number of small and micro enterprises is the three-year-old e-commerce bank (-20 18). In 20 18, e-commerce banks provided financial support of more than 1 trillion yuan for small and micro operators, of which 96% loans were granted to small and micro operators below 1 10,000, and the number of small and micro enterprises served was as high as 1500.
Let's make a horizontal analogy. Minsheng Bank has a maximum of 6.09 million, second only to online merchant banks; Among the big banks, ICBC serves more than one million small and micro enterprises, CCB10.3 million and ABC 3.88 million; There are 200,000 Weizhong banks that are Internet banks;
What is embarrassing is that the number of small and micro enterprises that serve is the largest, but the ability to make money is the bottom. In 20 18, the net profit of online merchant banks was only 404 million, which was not as good as ICBC and medium-sized banks, and even had a big gap with Weizhong Bank (14.48 million).
Online merchant banks are not an isolated case. Looking back at the financial reports of the banking industry over the years, we will find the performance of various fields and industries where the credit business of small and micro enterprises is concentrated, such as small manufacturing, wholesale and retail, residents and catering. It is often bleak.
Good model, bad business 3354 This is a worldwide problem of serving small and micro enterprises. Even Grameen Bank, which won the Nobel Peace Prize, does not make money and cannot be copied.
According to the statistics of media 20 16, only two of the 23 Grameen banks in China survived, which made Yunus, the founder of Gengler Min, very disappointed. He said that the country bank is a bank for the poor. "Obviously, in China, the model of rich people making money through microfinance is wrong."
Re-evaluate the gains and losses of online merchant banks
The model is optimistic, but the business return is low and the ability to make money is worrying. How should we evaluate the gains and losses of online merchant banks?
Gain and loss-what is the goal of online merchant bank positioning based on? Which is more important, the lowest profit or the most customers?
Back to three years ago, when the online merchant bank was established, Ma Yun put forward a clear KPI. In the next five years (by 2020), the online merchant bank will serve100000 small and medium-sized enterprises.
This small goal was achieved on 20 18, two years ahead of schedule.
Compared with state-owned banks, online merchant banks do not have an advantage in the amount of funds. In order to achieve the small goal of 6.5438 million yuan, they are more willing to serve.
"In fact, tens of thousands or even thousands of dollars of loans are difficult to solve the big development problems of these shops. We mainly solve their survival problems. " Jin Xiaolong, president of online merchants, said.
President Jin's implication is that once they are put up by the roadside stalls, they will no longer be customers of Ant Financial and hand them over to the bank.
As can be seen from the above statement, compared with the ability to make money, the first goal of online merchant banks is to improve the coverage and depth of services.
In terms of breadth, the most obvious change of 20 18 is to go out of Ali 3354, out of the e-commerce platform, and from online to offline.
It took Ali almost ten years to get off the line. -The predecessor of online merchant bank is Ali Small Loan. From 2007 to 20 14, Ali Small Loan has probably experienced three iterations, but it has basically not left the Ali system.
The reason is also very simple. The unsecured and unsecured loan data mainly provided by Ali Small Loan has become essential. In the past, the seller data of Ali e-commerce platform was the basic premise of lending.
In 20 18, AliPay launched the "code merchant growth plan", with the goal of providing a series of digital business tools for1000000 Wechat business, and realizing "one account, one stock, one group of customers", among which the "over-charged loan" business is mainly provided by online merchant banks.
As a result of this action, the services of online merchant banks began to cover offline extensively. Now, its offline loan service for small and micro operators has covered all provinces and cities in the country.
From the industry point of view, the "coders" of online banking services are mainly service operators, among which retail businesses such as clothing stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, tobacco and alcohol groceries account for 19%, and pure service businesses such as catering, education, beauty, maintenance and housekeeping account for 8 13354. In the past, pure service business was rejected by traditional banks because of the lack of collateral and detailed operating data.
In other words, when Ma Yun put forward the small goal of 6.5438+million three years ago, his confidence was estimated to be-. He may not have anticipated the rise of coders at that time. In the whole 20 18 year, Alipay provided more than 80 million loans for small and micro enterprises in China, an increase of 60% compared with 20 17 year. Among them, code merchant customers have made great contributions, and more than 6 million offline small and micro operators have obtained online merchant bank loans.
After & gt goes offline, the threshold for small and micro enterprises served by Alipay is lower, and the average loan per household is an excellent reference indicator-the average loan amount of small and micro operators offline is only 76 15 yuan, and the average capital use time is 50 days, but the number of operators who have borrowed more than three times in six months has reached 35%.
In addition to the number of customers, there is also an indicator of risk control capability-that is, the non-performing rate.
Disappointed with Yunus, what I hate most about China's financial peers is that the interest rate is too high-the interest rate is too high because of the poor risk control ability and the soaring non-performing rate, so we have to cover bad debts with high interest rates.
The NPL ratio of online merchant banks is only1%-this NPL ratio is the same as that of China Construction Bank, one of the four major banks, and the risk index and difficulty coefficient of mortgage loans and secured loans provided by the latter for large and medium-sized enterprises are inherently lower than those of credit loans for small and micro enterprises.
The low NPL ratio means that its business is sustainable and the loan interest rate can be continuously lowered.
Jing Xiandong, chairman of Ant Financial, promised to continue to lower the average lending rate of online merchant banks on the basis of an overall reduction of one percentage point in 20 17 in the future.
Therefore, from the perspective of making money, the results of online merchant banks are not good, but from the small goal of "100000", it is to "complete credits" two years ahead of schedule.
Bottom gas and weight
After completing Ma Yun's small goal two years ahead of schedule, the online merchant bank put forward the next small goal of three years-serving 30 million small and micro enterprises and individual operators within three years, so that all roadside stalls can get loans and interest rates continue to be lowered.
Doubling the number of customers means that the threshold will continue to decrease-and lowering the threshold often means that the risk index and the non-performing rate will rise simultaneously. Why should interest rates continue to fall?
Its advantage lies in the risk control system. The online merchant bank inherited the 3 10 index of Ali Small Loan. The so-called 3 10 means "3 minutes to apply for a loan, 1 second to lend, and 0 manual intervention in the whole process".
However, "3 10" in the online banking era and "3 10" in Ali Small Loan are not in the same level. During the Ali small loan period, customers were concentrated in the Ali e-commerce platform, while in the online banking era, customers were distributed inside and outside the Ali system, covering online and offline. In other words, the difficulty of risk control has multiplied.
The starting point of the great change of risk control system is 2065438+June 2007, when online merchant bank and Alipay launched "multi-charge and multi-loan".
First of all, the data richness has been greatly improved. At present, there are more than 654.38+10,000 index systems, more than 100 forecasting models and more than 3,000 risk control strategies in the background, supporting 3 10 rapid response mode.
One month after the online merchant bank's "multi-tax loan" was launched, more than 1500 small and micro operators obtained a higher credit line, and the average credit line increased by 8- 10 times. It is estimated that in the coming year, the online merchant bank will provide 200 billion yuan of financial support for more than 2 million small and micro enterprises that pay taxes in good faith.
With data, we need to build a richer and more accurate data model.
For example, it is necessary to quickly identify whether business data is a real transaction or a personal fraudulent loan. If it is a person, the person who has financial dealings with him is like a ball of wool. If he is a self-employed, there will be more people who have financial relations with him, and there is no connection between them. Relationships are like dandelions.
In addition to business data, more and more external variables should be introduced to build a more accurate model. Including municipal information, landmark buildings, people flow, buyer structure, similar businesses and so on. Through business circle clustering and industry identification, combined with the optimization of search algorithm, we can quickly match billions of LBS nodes, and calculate the business potential and business risk of the store in the next six months in a few seconds. For example, road construction will also affect the prediction of business potential and risk.
Reverse the concept of risk control, improve the ability of anti-fraud prevention, and "kill" the cash-out signs in the bud. The traditional concept of credit risk control often presupposes people as bad people, while online merchant banks do not presuppose bad people. First, they treat everyone as good people, and then use big data risk control technology to pick out several "bad people".
For example, a feature of cashing is the concentration in a short time-tens of thousands of cashing virtual communities and millions of cashing buyers can be effectively identified by the algorithm.
The algorithm that kept the industry in the laboratory stage was quickly used in the front line, and risk control first promoted product evolution. For example, the traditional risk control model ignores the continuity of behavior in the occurrence time. In the identification of long-term lending, online merchant banks have increased the time dimension, and raised the original three-dimensional algorithm to four-dimensional space, thus improving the identification of potential risks.
Based on the above-mentioned risk control mode, the average labor cost of a small and micro loan issued by a financial institution in the past was 2,000 yuan, while the average operating cost of each loan of an online merchant bank was only 2.3 yuan, of which 2 yuan was used for electricity and storage hardware.
Therefore, online merchant banks will not make money now, but will make money for a long time in the future.
This article comes from titanium media.
Related Questions and Answers: Related Questions and Answers: Is Ali Online Bank Dead? Ali online merchant bank is dead, which can be said to be complete nonsense.
First of all, we must admit that the interest of online merchant banks is not as good as before, but this is not a sign that online merchant banks are dead. Jade is just a wealth management product, and even the current rate of return is higher than other wealth management products on the market.
Furthermore, the positioning of online merchant bank is the first choice of financial service providers for online merchants, the explorer of internet banks and the practitioner of inclusive finance. Mainly serving small and micro enterprises, individual merchants, mass consumers, rural operators and farmers, small and medium-sized financial institutions. Online merchant banks belong to the capillary of financial services, mainly serving long-tail customers that are difficult to be covered by traditional banks, and focusing on small and high-frequency business scenarios.
Finally, although the scale of online merchant banks is not comparable to that of banks, they are also very powerful. At the end of 20 18, the assets of online merchant banks were almost10 billion, with thousands of employees, and many listed companies and Ant Financial joined in to help out, so the development was getting better and better.
Commercial banks can be said to be a subversive innovation in the banking industry and a future trend with a bright future!