On the basis of analyzing the actual operating conditions, loan quality and distribution of non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises, the actual non-performing control rate should be improved, but the specific management should be instructive, different and dynamic.

Calculate the baseline according to the actual risk level.

The tolerance of non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises should match the actual risk level of enterprises, and the following three factors should be considered: First, the current small and micro enterprises have low profitability, large operational uncertainty and narrow living space. After increasing their investment, the credit risk will increase accordingly; Second, the quality of credit assets of small and micro enterprises in the banking industry has gradually improved, including increasing write-off efforts and selectively restraining the release of small and micro enterprises. The existing non-performing rate does not fully reflect the credit risk of small and micro enterprises in the past; Third, among the existing non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises, the proportion of subprime loans, doubtful loans and loss loans is about 4∶4∶2, which is lower than other loan forms. In addition, the proportion of interest-related loans is 2.56%, and there is also the possibility of downward migration, so the level of non-performing loans on the books is already very high. A questionnaire survey of 235 loan officers and risk managers of small and micro enterprises in four cities shows that according to experience, 109 people think that the non-performing loan ratio should be controlled at 3% ~ 5%, and 78 people think that it should be controlled at 5% ~ 10%, accounting for 46.38% and 33. 19% of the total number respectively. Few people think it should be below 3%, while only 4 people think it should be above 10%. Based on this calculation, the overall non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises can be controlled at around 5%, which is higher than the existing level of the four cities 1.3 percentage points.

Distinguish industry types and determine different gears.

Due to the differences in business environment, characteristics, profitability and competition, the credit risk status of small and micro enterprises in different industries is different. For example, from the situation of the four cities, the ratio of non-performing loans from high to low is: other industries, agriculture-related enterprises, production enterprises, circulation enterprises, high-tech enterprises and service enterprises. Therefore, the tolerance of non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises can not be generalized, but should be appropriately determined according to the risk characteristics of their industries. The questionnaire survey shows that the respondents generally believe that the loan risk of agriculture-related industries is higher, the loan risk of service industry, high-tech and circulation enterprises is lower, and the loan risk of productive industries is in the middle. At the same time, most of the interviewees think that the actual NPL ratio of various industries is higher than the current level (see table 1).

According to the characteristics of regions and institutions, differentiated management is implemented.

There are obvious regional differences in the level of non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises. From the situation of the four cities, the non-performing loan ratios of Langfang and Tangshan, which are relatively developed, are 1.3% and 1.68% respectively, while those of Xingtai and Hengshui, which are relatively low in economic development, are as high as 6.36% and 9.4 1%, indicating that the economic development level and loan investment structure of each region are different. Therefore, for different cities and counties, the tolerance standard should be determined according to the actual situation. Generally speaking, economically developed areas have large economic aggregates, high consumption levels and wide business space, which are easy for small and micro enterprises to survive and develop, and the non-performing loan ratio should be low; On the contrary, small and micro enterprises in economically underdeveloped areas face greater difficulties, and the tolerance standards should be relaxed accordingly. At the same time, the non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises in different types of institutions is also quite different. Among the banking financial institutions in the four cities, the non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises in Agricultural Development Bank and rural small and medium-sized financial banks is obviously high, of which the non-performing loan ratio of Agricultural Development Bank is 25.49%, and that of other types of institutions is below 1% (see Figure 2). Analysis of the reasons for the difference is mainly caused by the different emphasis on loan investment and credit management level. For example, in the small and micro enterprise loans of Agricultural Development Bank and rural credit cooperatives, if there are more agricultural loans, it is easier to form risks. Combined with industry analysis, it is considered that institutions with a large proportion of loans for small and micro enterprises related to agriculture and production should set a higher tolerance, and other institutions can set a lower tolerance accordingly; In addition, rural credit cooperatives, city commercial banks, postal savings banks and other institutions with extensive credit management and low risk management and control capabilities should set a higher tolerance at present.

Implement dynamic control according to the development trend of small and micro enterprises

Judging from the banking situation in the four cities in recent years, the balance and proportion of non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises have been declining year by year, with the non-performing loan ratio of 3.74% at the end of September, down 2.53 percentage points from the end of 20 10 and down 6.54 percentage points from the end of 2009. According to the current data, the balance and proportion of non-performing loans will increase within 2-3 years after the tolerance of non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises is improved. With the continuous improvement of the operating conditions of small and micro enterprises, the continuous enhancement of the professional operating ability of the banking industry and the effective improvement of the social credit environment, the non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises will gradually decline, and finally return to the level equal to or slightly higher than other non-performing loan ratios. If the banking industry strengthens the write-off of loss-making loans, this process will be faster. Therefore, the tolerance of non-performing loan ratio of small and micro enterprises should be dynamically controlled, that is, a higher tolerance should be set in the next 1 ~ 3 years, and then the tolerance standard should be gradually lowered according to the situation ~