The report also mentioned that even if the growth rate of total loans is not considered, if the growth rate of bank real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans in 20 19 is not exceeded, the total amount of development loans and mortgage loans in 20021year will only shrink by about 0.4%-0.9% compared with that in mid-2020, with limited impact.
In the interview, another brokerage analyst's judgment was consistent with Huatai Securities. According to the analyst's estimate of 36 listed banks, the total amount of real estate loans that all banks that fail to meet the standards need to be reduced is about 700 billion yuan, and according to the upper limit of the proportion, all banks that meet the standards still have a surplus line of 2,000 billion to 3,000 billion yuan to use. According to the analyst's estimation, in the overall real estate development funds, the loan amount of pressure drop accounts for less than 10%, and the impact is limited.
The financing pressure of housing enterprises mainly comes from the "three red lines" policy. In the past six months, the impact of this policy has already appeared.
According to RealData 2020 annual report on housing financing, the total scale of domestic and foreign bond financing of housing enterprises reached a record high this year, but the growth rate decreased by 10 percentage point compared with the same period of 20 19. The monthly data in 2020 more clearly reflects the power of the "three red lines". The rumor of "three red lines" appeared in August. Every month before August, the total amount of newly issued bonds exceeded the total amount of debts due in that month, and after August, the total amount of newly issued bonds was always small.
RealData predicts that the financing scale of housing enterprises in 20021year will be at a low level due to the uncertain prospect of overseas epidemic prevention and control, strong economic uncertainty and new domestic financing regulations.
202 1 The financing situation in the bond market in the first month is really not optimistic as judged. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, 202 1 1 is one trading day more than the same period last year, but the scale of bond issuance by real estate enterprises is not as good as that of the same period last year. The first month of the new year is the peak of traditional bond issuance, and its data has certain significance.
It never rains but it pours. June 5438+ 10, Huaxia Happiness (600340, shares it) (600340. SH) A debt crisis broke out. According to its announcement, the debt of 5.255 billion yuan is overdue and is seeking the support of the governments of Hebei Province and Langfang City. The aforementioned brokers believe that the credit crisis in China will impact the whole industry, especially the prospect of private enterprises issuing bonds.
Corresponding to low financing is high maturity debt. According to the calculation of RealData, in 20021year, the total debt due in the whole real estate industry will break through the trillion mark for the first time, reaching the scale of 1.2 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 36%. However, the issuance cycle of housing enterprise bonds is mostly 3-5 years, which means that the maturity of bonds will slow down significantly after 3-5 years, and housing enterprises will face heavy cash flow pressure.
The differentiation of the bond market in the first month of the new year is also worthy of attention. This month, Country Garden (2007.HK) issued two bills totaling US$ 654.38+02 billion, of which only 2.7% and 3.3% were in coupon rate, and the long-term maturities of the two debts were 5 years and 654.38+00 years respectively. Zhongliang (2772.HK) also issued two US dollar bonds, 9.5% and 7.5% respectively in coupon rate, both of which will expire next year.
Many interviewed housing enterprises and market analysis institutions believe that in the new year, the financing cost and difficulty of housing enterprises will be polarized according to their financial and credit conditions. A manager of the top 20 housing enterprises believes that the "three red lines" standard will become a general reference for lending and credit. This is one of the reasons why even if the "three red lines" are not expanded, it will still affect the whole industry.
Domestic financing costs will also have certain structural differences due to the nature of enterprises. According to the data of RealData in 2020, compared with central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the domestic average coupon rate of non-central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is nearly 1.5% higher.