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With the strengthening of globalization, the imbalance of international economy will lead to the redistribution of international capital on a global scale. In a sense, the international economic imbalance and the defects of the international monetary system are the preconditions for the outbreak of the financial crisis, while the attack of international hot money is the realization condition for the outbreak of the financial crisis.

[Edit this paragraph] Subprime real estate mortgage loan

According to international practice, the mortgage loan for house purchase is a down payment of 20%-30% and then a monthly repayment of principal and interest. However, in order to stimulate real estate consumption, the United States implemented "zero down payment" in the past 10, and did not have to repay principal and interest for half a year. Within five years, only the interest will be paid, not the principal, and even the buyers will be allowed to mortgage the value-added part of the house price to the bank again. The most romantic mortgage system in the world made Americans spend more money, and the poor lived in big houses, which created a brilliant decade of American economy. But behind this glory lurks a huge real estate bubble and related bad debts.

[Edit this paragraph] Mortgage securitization

For the sake of liquidity and risk diversification, American bank financial institutions package mortgage loans, including subprime mortgages, and sell them to social investors through investment banks. The huge real estate bubble is transmitted to the capital market and further to the investors in the whole society-shareholders, enterprises and various banks and institutional investors around the world.

[Edit this paragraph] Alienation of investment banks

Investment banks are financial intermediaries, but American investment banks are confused by the huge profits of mortgage securitization transactions and their roles are alienated. While earning intermediary fees by underwriting bonds, large-scale trading of subordinated bonds gains income. Figuratively speaking, it is from a casino banker to a gambler or even a banker. The alienation of roles not only makes the mediator lose justice, but also drags himself into the quagmire.

[Edit this paragraph] The financial leverage ratio is too high

The financial market must be stable and the financial leverage ratio must be reasonable. American financial institutions unilaterally pursue excessive profit expansion, using a very small proportion of their own funds to achieve scale expansion through a large number of liabilities, and the leverage ratio is as high as 1: 20-30 or even 1: 40-50. In the past five years, American financial institutions have concocted a huge market and false prosperity with this excessive leverage ratio. For example, Lehman Brothers used its own funds of 4 billion US dollars to form a bond investment of about 200 billion US dollars.

[Edit this paragraph] Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

The leverage ratio of financial investment in the United States can reach 1: 40-50 because of the existence of CDS system, and credit insurance institutions provide guarantees for these high-risk financing activities. If the financing party has financial problems, it will be paid by the institution providing insurance. However, in the absence of default, insurance institutions can not only obtain risk compensation, but also publicly sell CDS in the market. As a result, a huge CDS market with a scale of more than 33 trillion US dollars has been formed. The emergence of CDS not only avoids local risks, but also increases the overall financial risks, making the scattered and controllable default risks concentrated in credit insurance institutions and becoming highly concentrated and uncontrollable risks.

[Edit this paragraph] Hedge funds lack supervision.

The interaction of the above five links formed the source of the financial crisis in the United States, and the hedge fund of "chasing up and killing down" accelerated the fermentation of the crisis. There are a large number of hedge funds in the United States that lack government supervision. When the American economy developed rapidly, hedge funds made many commodity markets, such as pushing oil to the sky-high price of 147 dollars; After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, hedge funds frantically shorted the US stock market, which accelerated the collapse of the whole system.

[Edit this paragraph] Conclusion

These six links are linked one by one, forming the spiral body of American financial bubble and growing chain. The collapse of one link will produce a domino effect, which will eventually evolve into a financial crisis in the United States and even the world today.

What is the scope of the sweep?

cosmopolitan

Which countries are most affected and which types of countries are most affected?

I have read the report, and everyone has different opinions. Some people think that it is a developed country, while others think that developing countries are bigger. Some are dominant influences, some are hidden influences, and I can only be seen in the spring.

I found some for you ~ ~

Some analysts pointed out that some developing countries will suffer multiple blows in the financial crisis: on the one hand, it is more difficult for developing countries to raise funds in the international financial market because developed countries withdraw funds to save the market; On the other hand, because the financial crisis has curbed the consumption demand of developed countries, the exports of developing countries will decrease. There are also some developing countries, such as the Philippines and Mexico, whose remittances will be greatly reduced. The World Bank estimates that in view of the pressure of the financial crisis on aid projects in recipient countries, rising food and energy prices may push as many as 654.38 billion people into poverty.

Sina Technology News: On September 25th, Beijing time, according to foreign media reports, Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, said on Wednesday that the US financial crisis may cause economically developed countries to reduce their support for projects to solve hunger, poverty and diseases.

After delivering a speech at the 63rd UN General Assembly yesterday, Gates said, "Although the degree of economic interaction between developed and developing countries is not clear, when one economy is in crisis, other economies are not immune. Economically developed countries may no longer contribute generously to these rescue projects. "

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation founded by the Gates couple has donated 654.38+07 billion dollars to solve hunger, poverty and disease. Yesterday, Gates announced that the Foundation would donate $66 million to the United Nations to help 350,000 poor farmers in 2 1 Asian and African countries improve their productivity. The project will provide these farmers with equipment and irrigation technology, and train them how to improve the processing and storage of crops.

* * * More than 65,438+000 national leaders attended the UN General Assembly held yesterday, and the main topic was the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression. At the meeting, the United States was criticized by many participants because it triggered the financial crisis and affected the implementation of the United Nations project to reduce poverty, hunger and disease.

Does this financial crisis have a great impact on China?

It is impossible to answer from all sides, but I think the overall situation and long-term development trend have not changed ~ ~ I just read a report, which was pointed out by American analysts, fully estimating its seriousness ~ ~ hehe.

The direct impact of the financial crisis on China is relatively small, because financial institutions in China did not buy many American subprime products. However, the indirect impact should not be ignored, because the economic slowdown in the United States will inevitably reduce the demand in the United States, thus impacting China's exports to the United States. But relatively speaking, because China's exports to the United States are mainly necessities of life, and some high-income countries' exports to the United States are mainly high-end consumer goods, the slowdown in the United States has a greater impact on the latter.

Shi Huihong: The financial crisis has both an impact and an opportunity on China. Font size display: large, medium and small 2008-10-1610: 20: 00 Source: many websites. Dr Shi Huihong, a researcher at the First Economic, Trade and Financial Policy Research Center, made an in-depth analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy. The financial crisis has both impacts and opportunities on China.

The negative impact of the financial crisis on China

The impact of the financial crisis on China, as early as 2005 and 2006, RMB appreciated and raw materials rose. Many small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta have no scientific and technological strength, such as clothing, shoes and hats, hardware and toys. I'm afraid that tens of thousands of enterprises such as Dongguan have withdrawn their capital and moved to Guangxi Province, which is a new economic zone. It is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to develop greatly at present, because Rome was not built in a day. These conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises are caused by the rising cost of raw materials, the weakening of export price advantage caused by the appreciation of RMB, and the tightening of credit policy adopted by the state. Many small and medium-sized enterprises have little funds of their own and rely on credit. In many places in the Pearl River Delta, enterprises can tide over the difficulties after defaulting on wages. Now with the implementation of some livelihood security policies and the new labor contract law promulgated by the central government in 2007, the punishment for wage arrears is very serious, and there are a series of safeguard measures for employees to sign contracts and dismiss. These measures have both good and bad aspects for enterprises. There are many reasons why small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulties in survival and do not make money.

Like many small and medium-sized enterprises in Shanghai, many of them are Korean and Japanese, and they quit immediately before they could make a profit. I'm afraid it's difficult to change this. The main measure may be their current business. By loosening monetary policy and reducing taxes, these enterprises will survive first. If this is done, it will not get worse, and the situation will get better after one year or six months.

China Opportunity of Financial Crisis

From my understanding of all aspects, this American economic problem has a great influence on our domestic economic situation. On the one hand, in the export field, we know that China's trade surplus is close to half, mainly from the United States. If the US export market shrinks greatly, it will naturally have an impact on the wheels of China's export-driven economy. On the other hand, in some financial fields, buying American financial institutions and corporate bonds has a great influence. In recent days, as we all know, CIC has suffered a great loss in the United States, which is our domestic loss.

But from another angle, I have been doing research on this issue recently, and I feel that it should be a great opportunity for China's economic development, whether it is the overall macro-economy or the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Why do you say that? There may be several backgrounds to discuss together. The first background, including the measures taken by the United States to force the RMB to appreciate rapidly and restrict China's export products, is realistic, but I think China is still quite abundant as long as the external environment allows us to develop according to normal rules of conduct. In the short term, the export of primary processed products may be affected, but at this time, China's export structure can be forced to upgrade. As long as there is this trend in this external market, I believe that domestic small and medium-sized enterprises, including large enterprises, will be able to upgrade their products. Of course, a time buffer may be needed, which leads to the second question. From the central government and all aspects, the macro-decision-makers will seize this opportunity well and try to provide a buffer opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises and large exporters in China.

Careful observation shows that the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar stopped in mid-July this year, and there was a moderate depreciation. This is a far-sighted strategic decision, which can have two functions. The first function is to prevent the impact of the sharp appreciation of the US dollar on China's exchange rate reform on August 8. We can turn over the history and find that many countries, including Japan, including South Korea and Germany, which have carried out exchange rate reform, can find that in the first stage of exchange rate reform, when countries change from appreciation to depreciation against the US dollar, most of them will have a fatal impact, which Japan, South Korea and Germany have experienced. In China, from all aspects of horizontal comparison, it should be the first case, that is, the reverse appreciation of the US dollar has a great buffer release effect on the risk of staggered reverse depreciation of the RMB. In recent August, the US dollar appreciated sharply, including the sharp drop in international oil and agricultural products prices, but China's exchange rate has been relatively stable, which is a milestone in China's exchange rate reform. Secondly, we also know that the slowdown of RMB appreciation during this period has given China's small and medium-sized enterprises, especially export-oriented enterprises, a great buffer and breathing space. I am also here to give a suggestion to small and medium-sized enterprises, that is, to control the RMB within the current appreciation range before the end of the year. As long as there is no major financial turmoil in China, the RMB may depreciate slightly. Small and medium-sized enterprises can make full use of this opportunity to arrange export production in the fourth quarter. A large exchange rate policy should be of great reference value to small and medium-sized enterprises.

[I like this and posted it]

There should be a topic in my blog ~ ~ that is the topic of our final exam of western classics ~ ~ I have compiled a piece of information ~ ~

Respondent: Gold-Money General Grade 4 1- 14 17:24.

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Analyze the financial crisis

Interviewee: recruiter-doorman level 2 1- 10 19:44.

The previous financial crisis was caused by the bubble in the US real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? Ronald Reagan called it "the magic of the market"-I called it "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the securities market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The most vulnerable countries are the Baltic countries and India. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.