Under the new economic normal, rural commercial banks are facing great challenges. As the core subjects of economic activities, they must clearly realize the many risk dilemmas faced by rural commercial banks at present.
Taking the challenges brought by the new economic normal to the development of rural commercial banks as the breakthrough point, this paper expounds how commercial banks to resolve the risks under the new economic normal and realize the healthy development of rural commercial banks under the new economic normal.
Second, what risk news does the rural commercial bank have?
If we know the current deterioration of the asset quality of rural commercial banks, it is not difficult to understand why the central bank wants to monopolize rural commercial banks. Since last year, the central bank began to implement targeted refinancing for regional financial institutions, and then recently implemented targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio for rural commercial banks and rural cooperative banks. Now it is necessary to conduct targeted examination and approval of rural commercial banks and rural cooperative banks, including city commercial banks. It turns out that some rural commercial banks have been heavily in bad debts and it is almost impossible to start a pot.
According to the data of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the balance of non-performing loans of rural commercial banks nationwide in the first quarter of this year was 79.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%; The NPL ratio 1.68% is much higher than 0.94% of city commercial banks and 0.92% of joint-stock banks.
According to "China Business News", it is not new that the non-performing loan ratio of many rural commercial banks is as high as 10% or even close to 30%, but 3% to 4% is also a very common phenomenon. Jiangsu Lianyungang Oriental Rural Commercial Bank, which recently published its 20 13 annual report, had a NPL ratio of 26.76% last year and its capital adequacy ratio turned negative.
As a rural commercial bank located in an economically developed area, Lianyungang's operating profit at the end of last year was-493,654.38+0 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was-65,438+0.625 million yuan, capital adequacy ratio was -4.56%, and non-performing loan ratio was from 2065,438+0.65,438+0. By the end of 20 13, there were as many as 273 pending litigation cases in Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank, involving more than100000 yuan and the litigation principal10/800000 yuan. Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank is the plaintiff, and its interest recovery rate in 20 13 years is only 44%.
The deposit growth rate of Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank slowed down. The total deposit of Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank in 20 13 years was 7.06 billion yuan, down 15. 17% year-on-year. Compared with the data of 20 1 1, the deposit scale has declined for two consecutive years, resulting in its loan-to-deposit ratio of 20 108.86%, which is much higher than that of 71201.
The asset quality of the whole rural commercial banks is declining. The non-performing balance of rural commercial banks in the first quarter of this year was 2. 13 times that of 37.4 billion yuan in the first quarter of 20 12 and 2.65 times that of 29.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2010. This ratio is higher than city commercial banks and large commercial banks, but lower than joint-stock commercial banks. The bad balance of joint-stock commercial banks in the first quarter of this year was121500 million yuan, which was 2.4 1 times of 60.8 billion yuan in the same period of 20 12.
In addition to Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank, many rural commercial banks have relatively high non-performing rates. For example, in 20 13 years, the loan balance of Anhui Wangjiang Rural Commercial Bank was 2.29 billion yuan, of which the balance of non-performing loans was 2130,000 yuan, and the non-performing rate was close to10%; The non-performing loan ratio of Jiangsu Suining Rural Commercial Bank in 20 13 years was 4.28%, up 0.48 percentage points from the beginning of the year. In 20 13 years, the non-performing loans of rural commercial banks in Jingxian county, Anhui province accounted for 4. 10%, up 0.25 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
According to analysis, the high loan concentration of rural commercial banks is an important reason. First, the industry concentration is high. Second, the regional concentration is high. Eggs are put in one basket, and the risks cannot be dispersed, which easily leads to large-scale bad debts.
The loans of rural commercial banks are generally in the local area, and the regional scope is small. For example, Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank is a relatively developed area. The industry is currently concentrated in wholesale and retail, manufacturing and real estate. 20 13 zhangjiagang rural commercial bank invested 42.07% in manufacturing industry. Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank 20 13 invested 44.64% in wholesale and retail.
Although the large-scale rural commercial banks are slightly dispersed, they are still concentrated in real estate, manufacturing and other fields. In 20 13, Beijing Rural Commercial Bank lent 32.9 billion yuan to the real estate industry, accounting for 13.94%, second only to bill discount, accounting for 20. 1 1%. In 20 13, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank involved in real estate loans of 39.5 billion yuan, accounting for 17.96%, second only to manufacturing, accounting for 18.49%.
To be sure, with the decline of asset quality, the development of rural commercial banks will enter a vicious circle, and the growth rate of their loans will also decline. According to the principle that loans create deposits, their deposits will inevitably drop sharply. The vice president of a rural commercial bank in Jiangsu said: "Last year and the first quarter of this year, loan defaults increased significantly, and bank loans gradually became cautious."
Take Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank as an example. At the end of 20 13, the total loan of Lianyungang Rural Commercial Bank was 7.685 billion yuan, up only 2.48% year-on-year, far below the industry average 14%.
According to central bank data, in the first quarter of this year, loans from rural small financial institutions, including rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks and rural credit cooperatives, increased by 654.38+0597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 476.543+000 billion yuan; In the first quarter of last year, loans from rural financial institutions increased by 206.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a decrease of 654.38+038.4 billion yuan.
Obviously, for the current non-performing assets of rural commercial banks, with the support of stabilizing regional financial order, refinancing and targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, we must find out the reasons. What caused the systematic decline of regional economy? Or is it caused by illegal loans? Is the loan risk control invalid? Or weak internal control? Is it caused by corporate governance and the dominance of local governments? It is also caused by technical reasons such as loan pricing.
If these problems are not solved, rural commercial banks, including rural cooperative banks and many city commercial banks, will once again become a bottomless pit filled by taxpayers.
We have noticed that the regulatory support for rural commercial banks is aimed at supporting agriculture, rural areas and farmers, but how strong is the support of rural financial institutions for loans to agriculture, rural areas and farmers at present?
According to national data, in 20 10, 2010 and 20 12 years, the agricultural loans of financial institutions nationwide reached 1 1.77 trillion yuan and 14.6 trillion yuan respectively. In the same period, the agricultural loans of rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives were 3.9 trillion yuan, 4.6 trillion yuan and 5.3 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 33.34%, 365,438+0.565,438+0% and 30.65,438+065,438+0% of all agricultural loans, respectively, but the proportion decreased year by year. There are obvious defects in rural commercial banks' credit support for agriculture, countryside and farmers.
We also noticed that while the central bank lowered the accuracy of villages and towns to rural commercial banks by two points, the CBRC issued the document 1 1 (rectifying the non-standard assets investment of small and medium-sized financial institutions in rural areas), and CBRC officials even said that they would relax the loan-to-deposit ratio requirements of the Agricultural Bank. According to the research report of CICC, the document 1 1 means that small and medium-sized financial institutions in rural areas are not up to the standard at present, which is about 300 billion yuan. Financial innovations such as inter-bank model make a large number of county credit resources flow to overcapacity areas (including real estate).
The demand for formal credit in rural areas of China is very strong, with the proportion of households needing loans reaching 19.6%, but the availability of formal credit is only 27.6%, which is lower than the national average of 40.5%.
However, we also noticed that in the last two orientations of the central bank, the first orientation will allow the deposit interest rate of rural commercial banks to be 2 points, while the rural cooperative bank only has 0.5 points. However, there were no rural credit cooperatives in the two RRR cuts. Of course, this is related to the low statutory reserve ratio of rural credit cooperatives, but its over-reserve ratio is also an objective reality. Is the rural commercial bank too radical or the rural credit cooperatives too conservative?
It is reported that the risk control mechanism of some rural commercial banks is not perfect enough, and it is easy to be exploited by defective non-standard businesses. For example, the project can't pass the risk control of the joint-stock company, but in order to find the investment of the rural commercial bank, the project sponsor or financier will give the relevant person in charge of the rural commercial bank a rebate. For a 200 million project, the rebate of 5‰ is 654.38+0 million, but the actual risk of the project is borne by the rural commercial bank itself. In the view of this veteran, similar interest transfer phenomenon is not uncommon in the non-standard business of rural commercial banks, and its operation mode is relatively hidden, and supervision is difficult to identify.
Last year, when the bond market rectified Class C accounts in the inter-bank market, it was revealed that rural small and medium-sized financial institutions were the main participants in the bond "holding" behavior-that is, they provided financial (or balance sheet) support for those long-term speculators who were engaged in high leverage and high risk.
In non-standard business, rural financial institutions such as rural commercial banks often play the role of investors. For example, in the repurchase business of some trust beneficiary rights, rural commercial banks often contribute as "Party B", while non-standard assets mostly come from other institutions, which package and arrange letters of guarantee and sell them to rural commercial banks.
Then the above cases can reveal whether the targeted support for rural commercial banks is due to insufficient funds or weak internal control and illegal operation, and the answer will obviously be re-verified.
Therefore, when providing financial support, the regulatory authorities must distinguish between responsibilities and problems. Those managers who deliberately violate laws and regulations should be held accountable, while those managers who are compliant and perform well should be rewarded, both mentally and materially. At the same time, guide or force them to operate in compliance with laws and regulations, and improve the problems of local government leading, rural commercial banks relying too much on local governments and lacking independence. For example, some analysts believe that rural commercial banks' support for local financing platforms is one of the main reasons for their bad debts.
Is 32 million rural commercial banks safe?
Under normal circumstances, it is safe for individuals to deposit in rural commercial banks. But from the perspective of personal safety, don't disclose personal information to others, especially bank cards and passwords, and don't tell others that U shield can't be given to others. Of course, banks also have spies, who may transfer customers' deposits through illegal operations. In this case, the public security organs will intervene to help customers recover their property.