Published in China Newsweek No.963 on September 7, 2020.
"The proportion of private enterprise financing in total financing is considered to be within a reasonable range, or within a reasonable range. It can also be said that from the perspective of total financing, the problem of financing difficulties for private enterprises does not exist. " Liu Xiaochun, vice president of Shanghai Institute of New Finance, said.
On August 30th, the Jingshan Report 2020, sponsored by China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) and led by CF40 senior researcher Xiao Gang, was officially released with the theme of economic and financial development and policy research during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. This is the fourth consecutive year that CF40 has released the Jingshan Report.
The report systematically studies the major economic and financial issues during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period from the perspectives of giving full play to the advantages of ultra-large-scale market, changes in savings rate, wide currency and low interest rate, financial support for the development of private enterprises, real estate finance and financial risk prevention, and puts forward policy suggestions.
Among them, Liu Xiaochun is responsible for the topic of "building a long-term mechanism of financial support for the development of private enterprises". Generally speaking, the financing dilemma of private enterprises is often summarized as "difficult and expensive financing". Liu Xiaochun thinks that "difficult" and "expensive" need to be viewed separately. The former is the availability of financing, and the latter is the price of financing. It is somewhat contradictory to solve these two problems at the same time. Allowing financial institutions to "expensive" risk pricing to cover costs will better solve the "difficulties".
"Private enterprises' financing difficulties and expensive financing are mainly reflected in the difficulty of refinancing on the basis of high leverage, the financing process is complex and the financing cost is relatively high. We believe that this is a market phenomenon and the result of the interaction between market participants and market rules. "
The imbalance between supply and demand under the loan "index"
In order to solve the financing difficulties and high costs of small and micro enterprises, in recent years, the regulatory authorities have put forward the requirements of "three no less than" (the growth rate of loans for small and micro enterprises, the number of households and the rate of obtaining loans are not lower than last year) and "two increases and two controls" (the year-on-year growth rate of loans for small and micro enterprises is not lower than the year-on-year growth rate of various loans, the number of households is not lower than the same period last year, and the quality level of loan assets and the comprehensive cost of loans for small and micro enterprises are reasonably controlled).
In the past two years, the government work report has put forward quantitative indicators for the growth rate of small and micro enterprise loans. In 20 19, the loans of small and micro enterprises in large state-owned commercial banks are required to increase by more than 30%, and the growth rate of inclusive loans of small and micro enterprises in large commercial banks is higher than 40% in 2020.
In Liu Xiaochun's view, the positive side of these measures is to effectively alleviate the financing difficulties and expensive problems of small and micro enterprises, but it also leads to the distortion of the pricing system to a certain extent, and the risk pricing principle cannot be fully implemented. The data shows that in the first half of 2020, the average interest rate of new loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises issued by five large banks was 4.27%, which was 0.43 percentage points lower than the annual average interest rate of 20 19, which was lower than that of some large and medium-sized enterprises.
In practice, some banks also lend money to "related households" first and then lend it out. Small and medium-sized enterprises did not get low-interest loans. In this regard, Liu Xiaochun believes that, to some extent, banks are responsible to depositors. "We should never forget that banks lend by absorbing savings deposits, so they should be responsible for savings deposits first."
"The problem now is that banks are given specific loan targets for specific loan targets, but the banks themselves lack the right to choose in the market, and they can't find loan targets that meet the loan requirements, so they can only find those' safe' and' safe' enterprises." Liu Xiaochun told China Newsweek that the security of savings can only be guaranteed if these enterprises can recover the principal and interest. "So, the contradiction now is that banks can't find good assets and good enterprises, and the effective demand for loans is insufficient."
From the perspective of economics, effective demand refers to the demand with the ability to pay. "For example, if we say that we are hungry, there will be demand, but if we have no money to buy food, it will not be an effective demand. From the perspective of credit, the same is true. Effective demand refers to the demand with repayment ability, so banks can only lend to enterprises with repayment ability. " Liu Xiaochun believes that as long as the government does not interfere with the bank's lending behavior, the bank will determine its own strategic positioning and customer groups under this strategic positioning, and provide support for these customer groups, which will have a better market regulation effect. In this process, the government should not interfere too much as long as it does not violate the regulatory requirements and legal provisions.
In this year's Jingshan report, the Liu Xiaochun team pointed out that to solve the long-term financing mechanism of private enterprises, we should not simply look for reasons from the supply side, but analyze from the supply side and the demand side. The external environment such as public policy and sudden crisis will also have an impact on the operation and financing of private enterprises.
"Of course, the state hopes that financing will be more inclined to production-oriented enterprises. If the production capacity is improved, employment will be created and benefits will be created, but in fact there is not so much effective demand now." Liu Xiaochun said.
Regulating the market or intervening in the market?
Recently, the Supreme Law issued the newly revised Provisions on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Laws in the Trial of Private Lending Cases, which canceled the concept of "two lines and three zones" in the 20 15 version, that is, the two interest rate dividing lines of 24% and 36% were used to divide the invalid zone, the judicial protection zone and the natural debt zone into three zones, and the quoted interest rate (LPR) of 1 year loan market was used.
According to He Xiaorong, a full-time member of the Judicial Committee of the Supreme People's Court, this move aims at promoting financial and private capital to serve the real economy, alleviating the problem of financing difficulties and high costs for enterprises, and preventing "routine loans" and "fake loans" from the source.
For this judicial interpretation, some people think that the supreme law controls interest rates through the legal level, while the central bank previously controlled interest rates.
In this regard, Liu Xiaochun believes that there may be some misunderstanding about the upper limit of judicial protection. "I don't think the judicial interpretation of the Supreme Law is interest rate control. Only the upper limit of judicial protection of private lending interest rates is stipulated, and there is no upper limit of interest rates. " For example, in Liu Xiaochun, two people have a loan relationship. As a private loan, it is agreed to charge 30% interest, which exceeds the current upper limit of judicial protection, but it is ok as long as both parties are willing.
Moreover, in Liu Xiaochun's view, this judicial interpretation only changed the calculation method of the upper limit of judicial protection, or linked method, rather than simply lowering the upper limit of judicial protection. "That is to say, if the LPR rises, the upper limit of judicial protection will inevitably rise, so this is a question of calculation method. As for whether the result of this calculation method is reasonable, that is another story. "
Liu Xiaochun emphasized that the judicial interpretation stipulates that the Bill does not apply to licensed financial institutions, but the understanding of licensed financial institutions may need to be explained by relevant departments. In addition, this judicial interpretation does not deny the problem of marketization, but only sets a maximum limit for the judicial protection of interest rates in the field of private lending, but does not limit the interest rates of private lending. In addition, for financial institutions themselves, it is still stipulated by the regulatory authorities, that is to say, the marketization of interest rates is still promoted by the regulatory authorities, and the law will not interfere.
"Recently, we have noticed some voices of opposition. I think some voices may not really support small and micro enterprises. Because we also said in the report just now, the financing of SMEs is more from bank loans and some private financing, including some microfinance companies. " Liu Xiaochun said.
In addition, private lending, even usury, is mainly used in two situations. One is that at the stage when bank loans need to be repaid and re-borrowed, private lending may be used for the transition, because the regulatory policy stipulates that it is impossible to borrow the new and return the old, and it cannot be extended indefinitely. Enterprises must repay the due loans before lending, which involves the turnover problem, and some enterprises can only go to private lending to solve it. Now many small loan companies are actually doing this business. The other is that the enterprise itself does have problems and has no choice but to borrow usury. Finally, the enterprise may go bankrupt.
In addition, some people think that the upper limit of judicial protection of private lending is too low, which may lead to some private lending going underground and becoming a gray area. Liu Xiaochun thinks this is a false proposition. Private lending was not allowed before, and there was an underground problem. Now private lending is allowed. As long as it is legal, there is no underground concept. Those so-called underground loans, in the judicial interpretation, are illegal loans, which are beyond our discussion.
From the lender's point of view, whether it is a small loan company, a loan between relatives and friends, or some usurers who specialize in lending, it is illegal to lend as long as they operate without a license. Therefore, in the past two years, the regulatory authorities have been emphasizing that financial business must be licensed. Illegal lending is not protected by the judiciary and should even be prohibited. Therefore, in Liu Xiaochun's view, this statement is actually to find reasons for people who operate loans without a license.
Is the interest rate set by the market or controlled by the government?
2065438+011June 2004, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans would be lowered. Official website, the central bank said that the purpose of this interest rate cut is to "play the guiding role of the benchmark interest rate, promote the real interest rate to return to a reasonable level, and focus on alleviating the outstanding problem of high financing costs for enterprises".
However, the result was unexpected. After the interest rate cut policy was announced, the direct coupon rate of bills rose instead of falling, and the inter-bank 7-day repo rate also rose slightly compared with that before the interest rate cut. The yields of government bonds and credit bonds in the bond market rose in an all-round way, and the interest rate cut ignited the enthusiasm of the market to invest in the stock market. A large amount of funds poured into the stock market from all directions, and the stock market soared, which ran counter to the original intention of the central bank to cut interest rates to stimulate the real economy.
Some insiders believe that under the premise that there is no substantial change in the relationship between supply and demand of funds, regardless of the nominal interest rate, the interest rate reduction policy will not reduce the actual financing cost of SMEs, but will increase the financing difficulty.
However, the market includes both the supply side and the demand side, as well as market rules. "Policies and regulations and government management cannot be ruled out, and the market should be discussed abstractly. Therefore, in practice, marketization does not mean that market management is not needed, but how to manage the market varies from country to country. The Fed will also adjust interest rates as a means of macro-control, rather than letting the market go.
"In theory, there is a self-regulating market, but in reality, the market will not always go in a good direction, and there will always be a pull. It may ultimately depend on disasters or crises, and the economic crisis is the most typical adjustment. " Liu Xiaochun said. However, only relying on crisis adjustment to achieve market equilibrium will make many people bankrupt and suffer losses, and the economy will be hurt even more, and even lead to social unrest. Therefore, it must be regulated by the government or the regulatory authorities, and the theory cannot be simply applied. "Of course, how to clarify policies and regulations and how to deal with government behavior is very worth studying."
In fact, all countries were looking for this point before, including Taiwan Province Province, the United States, Japan, South Korea and so on. At that time, interest rates were released when they rose, which led to high interest rates and disorderly competition. "High-interest loans will inevitably bring high-interest loans, but it will cause great risks to the economy. Under the competition of high-interest loans, the risk requirements are often reduced, the asset quality is not high, and thunderstorms are mixed, so this is what we need to avoid in the process of interest rate marketization. "
The interest rate marketization reform in China has been going on for several years. 2065438+On July 20, 2003, the central bank decided to completely liberalize the control of loan interest rates of financial institutions. On May 2065438+2005 1 1 day, the central bank decided to adjust the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rates of financial institutions from 1.3 times of the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.5 times. On August 26th of the same year, the central bank decided to let go of the floating upper limit of the interest rate of time deposits with a term of more than one year (excluding one year), and China's interest rate marketization reform took another important step forward. 10 year 10 On October 24th, the central bank decided not to set a floating ceiling on deposit interest rates for commercial banks and rural cooperative financial institutions.
After 20 15, the interest rate marketization reform has not made great progress. Until August 20 19 17, the central bank issued an announcement to reform and improve the formation mechanism of quotation interest rate (LPR) in the loan market, and reformed the LPR from six aspects: quotation principle, formation method, term variety, quotation amount, quotation frequency and application requirements. On the basis of the original 10 national banks, two city commercial banks, two rural commercial banks, two foreign-funded banks and two private banks were added to expand to 18.
For a long time, banks have issued loans to customers, and the interest rate is determined in the form of "floating ××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××× LPR is the basic loan reference interest rate calculated and published by the representative quotation bank on the basis of the bank's loan interest rate for the best quality customers and the open market operating interest rate, and authorized by the National Interbank Funding Center of China People's Bank. After the implementation of LPR reform in July, 2065438+2009, when banks issue loans, the interest rate is determined in the form of "LPR××%×× basis point" (1 basis point = 0.0 1%) or "LPR×××%".
According to the latest announcement authorized by the National Inter-bank Funding Center, on August 20th, 2020, the LPR of 1 year and over 5 years was 3.85% and 4.65% respectively.
In Liu Xiaochun's view, the starting point for the implementation of LPR is also the starting point for China's economy to enter a special period. That is, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the economic downturn, especially the Sino-US trade war, the decline in international demand, and the whole country and society hope to reduce financing costs.
"From the perspective of financing cost, the effect of interest rate marketization is good, but how to evaluate this system requires several fluctuations in interest rates." Liu Xiaochun believes that at present, the whole interest rate is mainly in the downward process, and has not yet reached the fluctuation stage of interest rate upward. Only after one or two ups and downs can interest rate marketization be said to be normal.
Liu Xiaochun expressed his appreciation for the professionalism of the People's Bank of China in the interest rate marketization reform. He believes that under the premise of keeping the market liquidity basically stable and reasonably abundant, let the market speak, including interest rates, which themselves are also regulating market supply and demand. "But the marketization of interest rates does not mean that the interest rate itself does not need to be adjusted, and LPR still needs to be adjusted. This is a means of macro-control. "
When it comes to the goal of marketization of the final interest rate, Liu Xiaochun thinks that it is not the marketization of the interest rate itself, but actually the reform of the whole market in China, that is, "let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources" put forward by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, and make further progress.
In Liu Xiaochun's view, in the process of market allocation of resources, market players, whether private or state-owned, will fall down. Banks should not lend loans, so as to eliminate backward and support competitive ones. In this case, Chinese enterprises can only form a strong international competitiveness if they build a dual-cycle pattern on the basis of domestic large cycles.