A few days ago, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Issues Related to Adjusting the Differentiated Housing Credit Policy", and the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home commercial loan was adjusted to not less than the LPR benchmark interest rate of minus 20 basis points.
What do you mean?
In other words, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate has been lowered.
After the downward adjustment, the interest rate of the first home loan can be as low as 4.4%. This is the first time that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate has been lowered since the reform of the quoted interest rate in the loan market.
It can be seen that this big move is aimed at the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans, and only for the first suite.
Maybe many people, like me, have no idea about a 20 basis point reduction.
To put it more bluntly, if the loan amount is 500,000 yuan, the term is 30 years, and the principal and interest are repaid in equal amount, the interest rate will be lowered by 20 basis points, and the average monthly interest will be less than that of 60 yuan, which will save more than 20,000 yuan in 30 years.
When the news came out, it immediately caused a heated discussion among netizens.
Some netizens ridiculed: "You can save 20,000 in 30 years. Do I lack that 20 thousand yuan? What Laozi is worse now is the down payment. "
Some netizens also warned: "Don't be too happy. Whether it will fall or not depends on whether the city where you buy a house will follow up. "
What do you mean?
Although the country has adjusted, whether your city has followed the policy is another matter. Just like when you go shopping in a shopping mall, although the manufacturer has given the market a unified guiding reserve price, the specific price still depends on the operation of the shopping mall.
In other words, although the policy is a good policy, it seems a bit lame compared with the direct interest rate cut.
Although it is not directly announced to cut interest rates, it has given local governments huge room to cut interest rates. But the meaning behind it is self-evident. Then the question is coming,
Or what is the reason behind this?
The core reason is that the real estate market has bottomed out.
For China, stabilizing economic growth has become a top priority, and real estate, as a key means to stimulate economic development, has once again been put on the stage.
For example. Because of the epidemic, Changchun once "closed the city" for more than a month, which seriously dragged down economic development. The data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the total GDP of Changchun was only 654.38+0.33 billion yuan, which plummeted by more than 654.38+02.5%.
In the past two years, all localities have been loosening the property market, from loosening the price limit and restricting sales to liberalizing the price limit and restricting loans. Some areas have even introduced policies to tie the qualification of having children with buying a house and break the purchase restriction through childbirth.
As a result, everyone found that no matter what means are used to stimulate, everyone is unwilling to buy a house.
There are several sets of data that can explain this phenomenon very effectively:
The first set of data:
From June 5438 to April this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 397.68 million square meters, down 20.9% year-on-year; The sales volume of commercial housing was 3,778.9 billion yuan, down by 29.5%.
The second set of data:
According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, from June 5438 to April this year, there were only three real estate enterprises with sales exceeding/kloc-0.00 billion yuan, namely Country Garden, Vanke and Poly Development, compared with nine last year.
At the same time, the threshold value of housing enterprises has also declined. The threshold value of the top ten real estate enterprises in the first four months was 48.6 billion yuan, down 50.3% year-on-year.
In the first quarter, the GDP of the real estate industry was even negative, from stimulating the economy to dragging down the economy.
The third set of data:
According to the data released by the central bank, in April, M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year, but RMB loans decreased by 823 1 billion year-on-year.
Among them, household loans decreased by 21700 million, a year-on-year decrease of 745.3 billion.
Among household loans, housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion, and consumer loans decreased by 654.38+004.4 billion.
What do you mean?
M2 maintained a double-digit growth, indicating that there is no shortage of money in the market. However, RMB loans decreased significantly, and housing loans grew negatively year-on-year. You know, this is the second negative growth of mortgage this year, and it is also the second negative growth in history. Because the last negative mortgage growth also appeared this year.
Since 2022, many cities have successively introduced favorable policies such as housing subsidies. Since March, more than 80 cities have relaxed their property market policies.
However, surprisingly, the transaction volume of the property market is still very low, with the transaction volume of 30 major cities falling by 47% in the first quarter.
Today, not only the house price has dropped, but also the mortgage interest rate, and even the threshold for buying a house has been lowered a lot, but everyone just doesn't buy it.
Some people say that if you lower the house price, I will lose if I can afford it.
Some people also say that if you lower the mortgage interest rate, I just want to repay the mortgage in advance, and I don't want to be a house slave to work for the bank.
On the surface, the warm wind in the property market continues;
Behind the scenes, people's enthusiasm for buying houses no longer exists.
Why are people still reluctant to buy a house under such conditions?
Some people say that because the national fertility rate is hitting a new low, the population is decreasing, and the inventory of the property market is increasing, the demand for buying houses will naturally plummet.
Some people say that people's awareness of cash reserves has become higher under the impact of the epidemic. A suite hollows out six wallets, and it is possible to empty the family's money just by down payment, and it also needs to bear loans for twenty or thirty years. Coupled with the recurrence of the epidemic, it is impossible to say that you still work overtime today and you will be unemployed tomorrow.
In such a big environment, even if you have money, you dare not buy a house easily.
He also said that people's ideas have changed now. In the past, people wanted to preserve and increase the value of their houses, but now more young people will treat every sum of money they spend as an investment, and the rate of maintaining and increasing the value of their houses will decrease. Therefore, it is better to invest in themselves than to buy a house, and renting a house can also solve the housing problem.
These statements are correct, but not comprehensive.
Generally speaking, the real estate market has become saturated, the income of domestic residents has decreased, and the willingness to buy houses has declined. This is a reality in front of the public. Previously, the real estate transaction volume and the monetization of urbanization shed reform have come to an end, and the overall demand for house purchase in China has dropped significantly.
Therefore, it is difficult to stimulate people's desire to buy houses by loosening the property market as in the past.
These problems all point to the same reason, that is, the confidence of the people.
In other words, people's expectations for real estate are not so strong. How much house prices can rise depends on national savings and the maximum debt that can be borne.
Now the landlord has no surplus grain, the national income has not increased, and the leverage is full. Ordinary people naturally dare not borrow it easily and are unable to borrow it again.
On the one hand, from the macro environment, the impact of the epidemic has greatly affected the domestic economic development. Moreover, the international situation is unstable, and geopolitical conflicts have intensified, which has put great pressure on the global economic recovery.
The epidemic is hard to end, the overall economic growth rate slows down and the economic pressure remains high.
As a result, the state had to relax the restrictions on real estate, and even the imminent real estate tax pilot was forced to postpone. The relaxation of the whole real estate policy has set a new record since 20 16.
People's worries about all kinds of black swan events have been deeply rooted in people's hearts, which has dampened people's enthusiasm for buying houses.
For example, negative news about housing enterprises emerges one after another, and faster housing becomes the mainstream. After paying the money, they can't get the house immediately, which makes many people worry about whether they will buy an unfinished building, and the money and the house are gone.
On the other hand, when the urbanization rate begins to approach the upper limit of 70% high-speed growth, when the national population market tends to peak, and when the economic growth of many cities begins to slow down, what will the future real estate rely on?
All kinds of uncertainties have lowered people's expectations of the real estate market, and even the enthusiasm of real estate developers to surround Gai Lou has begun to weaken.
In this situation, even if the mortgage interest rate is lowered and the purchase restriction policy is liberalized, it is difficult to impress the people.
Or wait until the interest rate comes down before buying?
If you just need to live by yourself and have a stable cash flow, then you don't have to wait and see, and you can start directly when you meet the right house. Especially in some cities like Suzhou, Guangzhou and Nantong, the interest rate of the first suite has dropped to 4.6%, so there is no need to wait.
Once the market picks up, prices are likely to rise rapidly. In case of paying hundreds of thousands of down payment, even if the interest rate drops by 20 basis points, it is not cost-effective.
In short, don't take interest rate as the only indicator of buying a house. If there are good projects, as long as the interest rate is lower than 5%, it can be considered. In particular, the price limit plate, such as strong second-tier cities such as Chengdu and Hangzhou, is no problem.
Ok, this sharing is over.
I am a business knowledge blogger who studies how ordinary people get rich.