When talking about the next stage of work, the report mentions "holding the main gate of money supply", "keeping the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically match the nominal GDP growth rate reflecting potential output" and "continuing to release the reform potential to promote the reduction of loan interest rates and comprehensively promote the obvious reduction of social financing costs".
Some people speculate that the loose monetary policy implemented during the epidemic at the beginning of the year may be withdrawn. The reason is that the macro leverage ratio (total social debt ratio) has risen to a high level, and the domestic economy has obviously recovered, with positive growth in the first three quarters. At the same time, Deutsche Bank even predicted in a report that China's economic growth rate will reach 9.5% next year. In the case of relatively stable economy, withdrawal is conducive to preventing risks.
Earlier, former Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei also thought:
In my opinion, the monetary policy implemented in the early stage of the epidemic has two characteristics: 1, and the quoted interest rate in the loan market goes down. 2. The growth rate of broad money M2 and social financing was significantly higher than last year. For example, in 20 19, the GDP increased by 6. 1%, and the broad money M2 increased by 8.7% at the end of 20 19. In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP growth rate was 0.70%, and at the end of September this year, the M2 growth rate was 10.90%, which was significantly higher than GDP and also significantly higher than last year's M2 growth rate.
If we withdraw from the previous monetary policy, we will show two things: 1, raise interest rates and raise the quoted interest rate in the loan market. 2. The growth rate of broad money M2 dropped to single digits, which basically matched the growth rate of GDP.
Then will you resign? The report puts forward "comprehensive measures to promote a significant decline in social financing costs". Social financing cost is mainly the financing cost of the real economy, which can be roughly understood as the financing cost of enterprises.
This year's interest rate cut has generally lowered the market interest rate, among which the corporate loan interest rate with the largest interest rate drop reflects the support for the real economy. The mortgage interest rate is also decreasing, which is 0.26% lower than last year's 65438+February, indicating that the cost of mortgage is decreasing.
The downward trend of corporate interest rates is mainly affected by two factors. One is the loan market quotation (LPR), which you can use as the benchmark interest rate of the loan level. LPR is mainly influenced by the central bank's monetary policy and the bank's capital cost. The second is the bank's own considerations. LPR interest rate is only the benchmark interest rate. Every bank will issue loans with reference to the LPR interest rate, but it is not necessarily the same as the LPR interest rate, and may be much lower to support the real economy.
The central bank said that "comprehensive measures will significantly reduce the cost of social financing", which may mean that the LPR interest rate will fall, or the LPR interest rate will not fall, but the central bank will guide major banks to reduce the loan interest rate through reform, and the second possibility is more likely. This means that 202 1 may not cut interest rates or raise interest rates.
In addition, in the report, the central bank mentioned that "the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically matches the nominal GDP growth rate reflecting potential output", which means that the growth rate of broad money M2 is likely to drop to single digits, because the probability of GDP growth is single digits.
It can be seen that looking forward to 20021,the central bank is likely not to raise interest rates, but it will not cut interest rates, and the money growth rate may be tightened. Therefore, as for someone asking whether the previous easing policy will be withdrawn, I think there will be some withdrawal (in terms of monetary growth).
The impact is that the mortgage interest rate may not rise sharply, but it is more difficult for the property market to obtain funds from banks. At least if you are a real estate speculator, the waiting period for mortgage loans may be prolonged. 202 1 the property market may be cold, because the role of the property market will be reduced after the economic recovery.