Recently, the Implementation Plan of Shenzhen Socialism with Chinese characteristics Comprehensive Reform Experimental Demonstration Zone (2020-2025) was issued, which explicitly entrusted the Shenzhen Municipal Government to approve the conversion of agricultural land other than permanent basic farmland that the State Council can authorize to build into construction land. This move has created extremely favorable conditions for Shenzhen to expand its urban development space.
However, land expansion, housing prices will rise again?
Avoid creating a "new sandwich layer" that does not meet the standards for applying for public housing and does not have the economic strength to buy commercial housing in the market.
Shenzhen World Bank Group Limited (World Bank, 002285. SZ, a real estate comprehensive service provider controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, released a report on June 65438+1October 65438+June 6, arguing that the implementation plan will provide a new guarantee for Shenzhen to solve the tight supply of residential land and curb the excessive growth of housing prices.
Since 20 18 Shenzhen's "second housing reform" kicked off, the World Bank believes that there are three major contradictions in the housing field in Shenzhen:
The contradiction between supply and demand caused by the continuous inflow of population and the low proportion of residential land lead to limited housing supply;
There are relatively many housing units in villages in the city, and the housing retention rate is low, which leads to structural imbalance of housing supply;
The low amount of housing provident fund loans and insufficient support for the purchase of houses with rising house prices may form a "new sandwich layer" that neither meets the criteria for applying for public housing nor has the economic strength to buy commercial houses in the market.
The World Bank said that the contradiction between supply and demand can be improved by steadily promoting the reform of land management system; On the premise of clarifying the ownership of relevant property rights and paying relevant fines, we will steadily promote housing transactions in urban villages and divert the demand for "improved housing" in urban villages; Steadily promote the reform of housing provident fund, strengthen the support for buying houses, and form a stepped housing supply structure of "high income with market satisfaction, middle income with housing provident fund support, and low income with public housing security"; Steadily promote the reform of real estate tax, curb speculative demand by increasing the tax on holding links, stabilize the operation of the real estate market by influencing people's expectations of real estate, and reduce land transfer fees by increasing stable tax sources, all of which will play a role in stabilizing housing prices to a certain extent.
The "second housing reform" is based on the establishment of the housing supply system, raising funds for the construction of public houses.
2065438+August 2008, Shenzhen Municipal Government issued "Opinions of Shenzhen Municipal People's Government on Deepening the Reform of Housing System and Accelerating the Establishment of a Housing Supply and Security System with Multi-subject Supply and Multi-channel Guarantee for Rent and Purchase", which opened the prelude to the second housing reform. It is estimated that from 2065438+2008 to 2020, housing construction in Shenzhen will raise 452700 sets, which will transform the status of the pillar industry of real estate into the attribute of social development and the importance of people's livelihood happiness.
The "Opinions" focus on solving three problems: First, the supply subject is multi-level, and eight supply subjects such as real estate development enterprises and housing rental management institutions are defined; Second, the supply channels are diversified, and the "six categories and fifteen types" construction financing channels such as new construction land and revitalizing existing land are clearly defined; Third, the housing security is structured. It is clear that by 2035, all kinds of housing will be newly built 1.7 million sets, including no less than 1 10,000 sets of public housing, and a "4+2+2+2" housing supply and security system for commercial housing, talent housing, housing and public rental housing will be systematically constructed. On the construction of multi-agent supply mode, on June 4th, 2020, China Ping An Group and Shenzhen Municipal Government signed a strategic cooperation agreement on public housing, and will continue to invest in the construction and operation of public housing in Shenzhen until 2035.
On the whole, from 20 18 to 2020, it is estimated that land will be newly supplied 144.7 hectares, urban renewal land will be 83.6 hectares, and industrial land supporting dormitory will be 64 hectares. Among them, in 20 18 and 20 19 years, a total of 124. 1 hectare of land was used to raise funds for public housing construction, which was greatly reduced compared with 20 17 years. It is estimated that the land for public housing will be 168.2 hectares in 2020.
From 20 17 to 2020, the proportion of public rental housing construction in Shenzhen has also changed significantly. Among them, the amount raised by public housing construction in 20 17 years accounts for 5 1. 15% of the total housing, 65.58% in 20 18 years and 56.63% in 20 19 years respectively, and it is estimated that the amount raised by public housing construction will account for 56.63% of the total housing. The resident population density in Shenzhen is 6728 people/square kilometer.
On the one hand, Shenzhen is facing the continuous influx of population, which has stimulated the increase of housing demand to some extent. ? On the other hand, the proportion of housing land is small and the housing supply is limited. The World Bank believes that according to the above implementation plan, Shenzhen can revitalize the existing land by adjusting the land function.
According to the statistics of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from 20 13 to 20 19, the net inflow of permanent residents in Shenzhen was 2,809,900, with an average annual inflow of 40 1400. Among them, the net inflow of population reached its peak in 20 17, which was 6 19900. In 20 19, the resident population density in Shenzhen was 6728 persons /km2, which was much higher than that in Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai. According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Urban Construction Land and Land Use in Shenzhen", by 2020, the area of basic ecological control line in Shenzhen will be no less than 974 square kilometers, and the total scale of construction land will be controlled within 1004 square kilometers. On the whole, it is estimated that the total residential land supply in Shenzhen during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will be 1065.6 hectares, accounting for 16.46% of the total land use, far below the national lower limit standard of 25%-40%. The total supply of public housing land in Shenzhen is 449.5 hectares, accounting for 6.94% of the total land. The proportion of residential land in big cities and their surrounding cities should not be less than 50%. Generally speaking, the supply of residential land in Shenzhen is insufficient, the supply of new houses is limited, and the housing supply gap is large.
In Shenzhen's stock housing market, the number of houses in urban villages accounts for nearly half, and the proportion of urban population living in urban villages is as high as 60%. Because there is no property right guarantee for the housing in the village in the city, some people living in the village in the city will give priority to commercial housing to improve their living conditions when their economic strength improves.
According to statistics, as of 20 18, the housing stock in Shenzhen is about10.65 million sets. Among them, the number of housing units in urban villages accounts for about 48%, the number of commercial housing units accounts for about 17%, the number of supporting facilities housing units accounts for about 17. 18%, the number of self-built housing units accounts for about 5. 16%, the number of affordable housing units accounts for about 4.04%, and other housing units account for about 4.04%.
By the first half of 2020, the total supply of various types of affordable housing and policy housing in Shenzhen will be about 506,300 sets. According to the calculation of permanent population 13438800 in 20 19, the housing retention rate in Shenzhen is about 1 1%, which is lower than the national standard of 23% permanent population in the new urbanization plan and far lower than 82% in Singapore.
According to the World Bank, on the whole, due to the lack of unified safety design planning in the early stage, the number of housing in urban villages with poor living conditions and inadequate facilities accounts for nearly half, the number of commercial housing with good living quality accounts for less than 20%, and the government-provided affordable housing is less than 10%, resulting in an unbalanced housing supply structure. The low rate of housing ownership makes the coverage of housing security smaller and the housing security is insufficient.
From 20 14 to 20 19, the price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen increased by 120.438+0%.
According to the World Union's monitoring data, in 20 19 and 12 years, the average transaction volume of single-family housing in Shenzhen was 4.58 million yuan, while the maximum amount of personal provident fund housing loans in Shenzhen was 900,000 yuan. If calculated according to the average transaction amount, the largest proportion of provident fund loans to the purchase amount is only 19.65%. After deducting the down payment of 30%, buyers also need to borrow nearly half of the purchase price from financial institutions such as commercial banks.
According to the data of Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Management Center, at the end of 2012165438+600 million yuan, the market share of individual housing loans was 8.43%.
Generally speaking, from 20 14 to 20 19, the housing price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen increased by 120.6 1%, while the market share of provident fund personal housing loans decreased from 27.35% to 8.43%, 29.2% in Beijing and 23.97% in Shanghai. Finally, the market share of provident fund personal housing loans has dropped significantly, and the support for buying houses has dropped significantly. According to the World Union's evaluation and monitoring data, as of June 2020, the average reference transaction price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen increased by 42,044 yuan/square meter compared with June 2065,438+2003, with an increase rate of 208.94%. Since June 20 19, the stock housing market in Shenzhen has achieved a continuous increase of 13 months.
In terms of the ratio of house price to income, in June 2020, the ratio of house price to income in Shenzhen was 28.3, which was higher than that in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other cities, and it was in the top three in China for a long time. In terms of rent-to-sale ratio, in June 2020, the rent-to-sale ratio of housing in Shenzhen was 1:668, slightly lower than that in Shanghai and Hangzhou, and higher than that in Beijing and Guangzhou.