On September 24th, Feng Lun brought his new book "Feng Lun: Buying a House" to the second phase of the "Reading a Room" sharing session held by Phoenix Net Finance and CITIC Publishing House 24-hour Studio, with the theme of "A Chinese Old Age", which brought a vivid new book sharing session to readers. 0 1 From "Germany" to "Singapore", house prices will not sing all the way. Since the housing commercialization reform in 1998, the China property market has gone through 2 1 year. Since 2 1 year, the regulation of the property market has been going hand in hand, from the earliest "National Eight Articles" to "New Eight Articles", from "National Ten Articles" to "New Ten Articles", from restricting purchases and loans to sales, from "the strictest in history" to "not the strictest, only stricter" ... The regulation of the property market can be said to be everywhere. Are there any traces of property market regulation? Feng Lun said that with the normalization of property market regulation, the government has three optional policy directions. The first option is the American model. In this mode, most of the housing demand is solved by the market, and what the market can't solve is solved by some financial means (such as subprime mortgage). From 1999 to 10 in 2009, China abolished the welfare housing distribution system, and houses were bought and sold at will, just like the American model. The second alternative is the German model, which mainly solves the problem of "housing" by renting a house. A person can only buy a house once in his life, and he can't make huge profits by buying and selling a house, nor can he speculate. "The German model is very similar to our current' housing and not speculation'. Turn the property of real estate' residence', the property of public welfare and the basic property of living and working in peace and contentment into the first property, while the property of investment appreciation becomes the second property. " The third option is the new plus model. 80% of the housing demand is solved by apartments with stable price range provided by the government, and 20% of the demand is completely regulated by the market. This is the so-called "private housing". Singapore has a population of less than 6 million, but the government has built 6,543,800+houses, and the government provides housing security in the form of low-cost small-sized houses. "Some housing security measures adopted by our country, such as affordable housing, small apartment, public rental housing, etc. All refer to this method. " Feng Lun said that from the perspective of economic laws, the residential market will "slow down" and enter the non-residential stage, that is, the "post-development era". In the post-development era, the real estate development mode will shift from residential development to commercial real estate development, including office buildings, shopping centers, medical care, logistics warehousing and leisure and holiday real estate. The "post-development era" house is more like a new model. Everyone has a house at home, and it is very cheap, and the house price will not keep rising. Residential "consumption upgrade" second-hand houses are becoming more and more popular. At this sharing meeting, Feng Lun said that after 40 years of rapid economic growth, it can be said that the housing problem in China has been basically solved. Why do you say that? Feng Lun mentioned that in 1978, the per capita housing area of cities and towns in China was 1.8 square meters, and the population at that time was over 800 million. Now the population has increased to 65.438+0.3 billion, and the per capita housing area in cities and towns is 39 square meters, which has exceeded the per capita housing area in Japan. Feng Lun also mentioned that after 39 square meters per capita, we will have to realize "one household, one room per capita". "One room per capita is very important to ensure private living space. More importantly, there is a saying, stop and go. In other words, everyone sleeps separately and does not interfere with each other. This is the improvement of housing quality. " Feng Lun also shared a very interesting phenomenon-after the per capita GDP reached 8,000 US dollars, housing began to develop in the direction of coexistence of stock and increment, the asset price of second-hand houses became higher and higher, while the sales of new houses became slower and slower. "Now people are more and more acceptable to buy a second-hand house in Beijing, but before 10, no one could accept it. At that time, they had to buy a new house. In fact, the old house is not necessarily bad. The key is to be comfortable and meet your needs. Now, the second-hand housing market is getting hotter and hotter. There are about 1 new houses in Beijing. This indicator is also very important, which means that the rate of house price increase will be slower and slower. "
Is it too soon to buy a house at the age of 27? According to the survey of the average age of first-time buyers in the world, the young people in Beijing, China topped the list at the age of 27, which is the youngest group to buy a house for the first time in the world. The first-time buyers in Britain and America are 35 years old, while the oldest buyers in Germany and Japan are around 4 1. Are young people in China in a hurry to buy a house at the age of 27? In China, many young people are only children, relying on the financial support of their parents, which leads to the advance of the average age of buying a house for the first time in China. However, compared with buying a house immediately after graduation, Feng Lun advised young people to "wait". Feng Lun gave an image example, "Should a 10-year-old boy marry a wife? /kloc-Is it a social problem that 0/0-year-old children can't get married? First of all, you shouldn't marry a wife. 10 is too young. If you give it to his wife, he can only be a mother. "
Choosing to buy a house or rent a house is actually choosing a different life. "Happy buying a house or renting a house?" At the reading sharing meeting, a reporter asked questions. "Of course, rent a house." Feng Lun looked at the young reporter. "As young as you are, you must be very happy to rent a house. Buying a house and paying the mortgage will make your work very hard. " At the same time, Feng Lun also mentioned that he rented a house before the age of 35, but renting a house should also lead a good life. Feng Lun shared the story of "Three Sisters". The first sister is Venus. Maybe many people don't know that Venus has been renting a house. In the eyes of many people, Venus should not be short of money, and she has three children, so why has she been renting a house instead of buying a house? Venus thinks that the quality of life is more important than happiness, so buying a house is not so meaningful to her. Pursuing quality of life and freedom is the first choice. Whether to buy a house, how long to rent a house, everything goes with the flow. Second sister is from Beijing. She used to own a house worth100000 yuan in Beijing. After selling the house, she bought a house with a square meter of 100 by the Erhai Lake for investment, and the total price was less than 100 million yuan. Later, she changed the house into a 200-square-meter house. Based on 8 million deposits and 6% annualized rate of return, her annual wealth management income is 500,000, and she can live in the best location in the first-tier cities by spending 200,000 yuan on renting a house every year. The third one is also the eldest sister in Beijing, who is not married or buying a house. The house she rented was very large, and she rented it for several years at a time, and the interior decoration was also very artistic. Different from others renting a house, she moved from one community to another. Once she couldn't stay in the rented house, she withdrew her rent and went to another city to experience a different rental life. Third sister's choice subverts traditional ideas, much like foreigners' thinking. Feng Lun said that in China, many people feel insecure about renting houses, and they don't feel at home. This is the psychology formed by the interaction between environmental pressure and traditional ideas. Most young people wander in big cities, and the uncertainty of the outside world gives them pressure, so they hope to get a sense of material stability in their place of residence. Renting a house and buying a house are two completely different lifestyles. Can we compare? Feng Lun believes that choosing to buy a house or rent a house is actually choosing a different life. If you like a stable life, you can consider buying a house of your own; If you are not in such a hurry, it is not bad to rent a house first and then have a look. Although buyers may become house slaves because of buying a house, they eventually hold fixed assets; Tenants have to move regularly, but it is also more comfortable. There are gains and losses in buying a house and renting a house. More importantly, how can you enjoy a better quality of life with limited money and make yourself happier, more comfortable and happier? How to judge the future house price? Feng Lun gave five pieces of advice to young people. At the sharing meeting of Reading Room, Feng Lun also gave five suggestions to young people-if you want to buy a house, you can refer to the changes of five sets of data: First, the per capita GDP of China is close to US$ 6,543.8+0,000. Why are some of us investing in real estate in Southeast Asia now? Because the per capita GDP of Cambodia and Thailand is now around 2000 dollars, as long as there are no accidents, their house prices will continue to rise in the next 20 years. The history of China and Europe shows that in the stage of per capita GDP of 2,000-8,000 dollars, house prices rose rapidly. This is the reason why people have bought houses to make money in recent 20 years. After the per capita GDP is 8,000 US dollars, the overall supply of new houses is decreasing, and the price will gradually stabilize. Second, the population has increased. Before the per capita GDP exceeded $8,000, the population of all cities was increasing, with Beijing and Shanghai increasing by 400,000 to 500,000 people every year. A city adds 400,000-500,000 people every year. How many people will be added in 20 years? So there is a market for new houses. But now the population growth rate of all cities is declining. Beijing lost hundreds of thousands of people last year. When the population growth rate of a city slows down and the increment becomes zero or negative, the demand for new houses will be very small. Third, the spatial structure of urban development. If the urbanization rate reaches 50%-60%, it means that the spatial structure and infrastructure of the city are basically completed. Why did house prices rise so fast in some places before? Because the subway passed, and because of the demolition of nearby communities, shopping malls had to be built. Now that the infrastructure and spatial structure are fixed, the subway to be repaired and the house to be demolished are all ready, and there is less chance of rapid rise. For example, there was no subway in Xinzhuang before, and the house price was 1 10,000. It was 30 thousand when the subway was connected. It is impossible to go up now. After the large-scale spatial structure, infrastructure and old city reconstruction are completed, the value-added of new houses will slow down. Fourth, economic growth. If a city's economy is growing, the employment rate is increasing, and personal income and wages are increasing, then there is a great demand for housing improvement. Everyone wants to improve, which will provide some vitality for the new housing market. If the employment rate is slowly declining, the unemployment rate is rising, and the growth rate of personal income is declining, then the new house cannot have great support. When the economic cycle goes up, house prices will rise. When the economic cycle is relatively down and personal pockets are getting shallower and shallower, the new housing market lacks support. Fifth, psychological expectations. Psychological expectations brought by financial policy, such as inheritance tax, if you buy a house for your child and pay much more tax than the house may add value, will you buy a house for your child? And property tax. The current direction is clear, but the laws, norms and details of the collection are still not perfect. What if it starts to be levied? Feng Lun said that young people in China now face many choices. Whether buying a house or renting a house, as long as you are down-to-earth, do scientific research, temporarily put aside anxiety, face up to the market, and keep up with the pace of China real estate, you can take the first step of the wealth appreciation train.
"Learning from Books" Phoenix Network Financial Sharing Meeting;
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