The quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held recently. However, judging from the contents of the meeting, there are not many new statements on the next monetary policy orientation.

according to the latest news from official website, the monetary policy Committee of the central bank held its 88th regular meeting in the first quarter of 22 in Beijing on March 26th. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation and made arrangements for the next monetary policy.

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to improve the coordination and transmission mechanism of fiscal, monetary and employment policies to hedge the impact of the epidemic on economic growth. Deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, promote the conversion of pricing benchmark of floating interest rate loans in stock in an orderly manner, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Do a good job in preventing and resolving financial risks, balance the relationship between steady growth, risk prevention and inflation control, pay attention to resolving risks in reform and development, and keep the bottom line of systemic financial risks.

judging from the overall attitude of monetary policy orientation, combined with the latest deployment of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, the next step of monetary policy will continue the current tone and rhythm, and the attitude of the central bank to relax monetary policy is still cautious and restrained, and the strong stimulus of flooding is difficult to reproduce. It may not be clear until mid-April that the benchmark deposit interest rate will be lowered, which is hotly debated in the market.

The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable

The meeting analyzed the economic and financial situation at home and abroad, and concluded that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable, China's economic growth remains resilient, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continues to improve, and the production and living order has been accelerated. However, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the spread of overseas epidemics has adversely affected the world economy, which has also brought new challenges to China's epidemic prevention and control and economic development.

The meeting held that a prudent monetary policy reflects the requirements of forward-looking, targeted and countercyclical adjustment, and strongly supports epidemic prevention and control, resumption of work and production, and the development of the real economy. The macro leverage ratio is basically stable, financial risks are effectively prevented and controlled, and the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy are gradually improved. The reform effect of quoted interest rate in the loan market is obvious, the real interest rate of loans has dropped significantly, the RMB exchange rate is generally stable, the flexibility of two-way floating has improved, and the ability to cope with external shocks has increased.

affected by the global spread of the epidemic, which led to the "shutdown" of many countries' economies, there are many pessimistic expectations in the current market that the world is facing a situation similar to the global economic depression in the 193s. In this regard, Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong Mathematics Department, said that although the epidemic will definitely bring serious impact to the real economy in the short term, and even cause a period of economic recession, the crux of this impact is not the financial system, but the epidemic, which is more similar to the impact caused by natural disasters. Considering that the current global economy is very different from that during the Great Depression in terms of monetary system environment, macro-policy concept, global trade situation, health of banking system and social security system, the fear of returning to the Great Depression is actually misleading. It is only a matter of time before the global epidemic is controlled, and the recession in the United States will not last too long, with a high probability that it will not last more than one year, and it will not return to the Great Depression.

define the six major objectives of monetary policy in the next step, or reduce the RRR and interest rates again in April

As usual, this regular meeting will also make arrangements for the next monetary policy. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to follow the changes in the world economic and financial situation, strengthen the analysis of the international economic situation, strengthen the coordination of international macroeconomic policies, and concentrate on doing your own thing. Specifically put forward the following objectives:

1. Innovate and improve macro-control, and a prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and moderation, and put support for the recovery and development of the real economy in a more prominent position. 2, the use of a variety of monetary policy tools, to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, to maintain the overall stability of the price level.

3. Give full play to the precise drip irrigation function of structural monetary policy tools, make good use of 3 billion yuan special re-loan, 5 billion yuan special re-discount line and 35 billion yuan special credit line of policy banks, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for fighting epidemic prevention, resuming work and production, tackling poverty, preparing for spring ploughing, livestock and poultry breeding, and foreign trade industries.

4. deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, guide the service focus of big banks to sink, push small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main businesses, and improve the modern financial system with high adaptability, competitiveness and inclusiveness.

5. make great efforts to unblock the transmission of monetary policy, continue to release the potential of reform to reduce the real interest rate of loans, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, especially small and micro private enterprises, strive to make financial support for private enterprises compatible with the contribution of private enterprises to economic and social development, and promote the supply system, demand system and financial system to form a triangular framework of mutual support, thus promoting a virtuous cycle of the national economy as a whole.

6. further expand high-level two-way financial opening, and improve the ability of economic and financial management and risk prevention and control under open conditions.

judging from the overall attitude of monetary policy orientation, combined with the latest deployment of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, the next step of monetary policy will continue the current tone and rhythm, and the central bank is still cautious and restrained in relaxing monetary policy.

Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Office of the Institute of World Economics and Political Affairs of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the current China government should rely more on large-scale fiscal easing to cope with the economic downturn and unemployment pressure, and monetary policy should be moderately loose to maintain the stability of the money market and cooperate with the implementation of loose fiscal policy. In the next stage, China's monetary policy should be relaxed rhythmically and pertinently according to the needs of domestic economic development. At present, China's monetary policy should not be pushed too hard. We can't put all the burdens of hedging the impact of the epidemic, stabilizing the macro-economy and promoting the stable development of the financial market on the Bank of China. We should also pay attention to the negative effects of potential large-scale credit expansion.

Many analysts believe that the marginal relaxation of the monetary policy environment by the central bank will take the timing of policy implementation, and the next observation window of RRR cut and interest rate cut will be in April.

Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, also told reporters that lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate is the strongest signal of monetary policy easing, and the lowering of the benchmark deposit interest rate will definitely drive the corresponding adjustment of LPR, release strong expectations of monetary policy easing, and significantly reduce the overall interest rate level. However, the timing of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate in the coming week is not mature. After mid-April, the timing of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate will gradually mature, and mid-April is a more suitable window for lowering. If the benchmark deposit interest rate is lowered in April, it will be around 25 BP. At that time, LPR will be lowered by 2-25 BP, and MLF interest rate will remain unchanged.

"There will be no important macroeconomic data except PMI in the coming week. The central bank will not make a decision to adjust the benchmark deposit interest rate just because of PMI data. In addition, the recent monetary policy is not far away, and it is unlikely that the benchmark deposit interest rate will be adjusted in the coming week. In contrast, April is a crucial month for the overall economic recovery. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment to prepare for the economic turnaround in the second quarter. It is more appropriate to make adjustments near the operating dates of MLF and LPR. April 15-2 will be a more appropriate window for lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate. " Color scale.

Wen Bin, chief macro researcher of Minsheng Bank, also believes that the central bank will continue to maintain sufficient and reasonable market liquidity through RRR reduction, open market operation and MLF, and guide the market interest rate to decrease steadily, especially by lowering the yield curve of the whole national debt, so as to drive down the interest rate of corporate credit bonds. At the same time, with the decline of energy and food prices, the inflation level will fall quarter by quarter, and the first half of April may become a time window for lowering the policy interest rate and the benchmark deposit interest rate. By releasing the reform potential of LPR, the capital cost of enterprises and residential departments will be reduced as soon as possible, investment and consumption will be stimulated, and domestic demand will be stabilized and expanded.