The "report card" for the first quarter was released, and the key data released the following signals:
Data 1 GDP: a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, an average growth of 5.0% in two years, stable?
Preliminary calculations show that my country's GDP in the first quarter was 24.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, an increase of 10.3% compared with the first quarter of 2019, and an average growth of 5.0% in the two years. ?
The double-digit economic growth needs to be viewed comprehensively, objectively and calmly: ?
——In the first quarter of last year, my country’s GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, objectively setting a low for this year. Cardinality. ?
——It is common to celebrate the Chinese New Year in situ this year, which will increase working days and bring incomparable impetus to economic growth. ?
Overall, compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the first quarter still grew by 0.6%, and the two-year average growth was 5.0%. This shows that our country’s achievements in coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have been consolidated and expanded, and the economy is showing a trend of stabilization, strengthening, and stability, which can be said to be off to a good start. ?
Data 2 Employment: 2.97 million new jobs were created in cities and towns. Total pressure and structural pressure exist simultaneously?
In the first quarter, 2.97 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. Urban survey The unemployment rate averaged 5.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year. In March, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from February and a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year. ?
It can be seen that the current employment situation in our country is generally stable. However, in the process of economic recovery, structural contradictions in employment have also emerged, with total employment pressure and structural pressure existing at the same time. ?
Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that as the economy continues to recover, we must continue to strengthen the policy of giving priority to employment, increase assistance to groups with employment difficulties, and expand marketization by ensuring employment services. , socialized employment channels, and gradually solve the problems faced in the employment field. ?
Data 3 Finance, Taxation and Finance: The "money bag" is picking up, supporting the real economy policy to "not make a sharp turn"?
In the first two months, the national general public budget revenue was 41,805 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, fiscal revenue showed restorative growth, and operations became more stable. ?
Since the beginning of this year, the implementation period of a number of phased tax and fee policies has been appropriately extended to continue to help enterprises rescue and develop, and the policy "will not make a sharp turn." At the same time, financial support for the real economy continues unabated. In the first quarter, new loans were 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 574.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, loans to enterprises (and institutions), mainly loans to the real economy, increased by 5.35 trillion yuan. ?
Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that in the first quarter, my country's total loan volume was stable and reasonable, maintaining continuity, stability, and sustainability in supporting the real economy. What is even more rare is that our country has always implemented a normal monetary policy and has not engaged in "flood irrigation" style excessive stimulation. ?
Data 4 Investment: Steady recovery, with investment in high-tech industries and social fields growing rapidly?
In the first quarter, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 9,599.4 billion yuan, year-on-year The growth rate was 25.6%, and the two-year average growth rate was 2.9%. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 37.3%, with an average growth rate of 9.9% in the two years. Investment in the social sector increased by 31.7% in the first quarter, and the average growth rate in the two years was 9.6%. ?
In the first quarter, manufacturing investment increased by 29.8%, with an average decline of 2% in two years. According to Liu Aihua, this means that the current manufacturing investment level is equivalent to about 96% of the pre-epidemic level, and manufacturing investment has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels. As the overall economic recovery continues to advance and corporate performance continues to improve, corporate confidence will gradually increase, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the manufacturing industry. ?
Data 5 Foreign trade: Compared with the previous three years, the growth rate has exceeded 20%, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors?
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first quarter, my country’s trade in goods The total import and export value was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year. Compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019, it increased by 25.3% and 20.5% respectively. From a month-on-month perspective, my country's import and export growth reached 25% in March.
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Zhuang Rui, a professor at the National Institute for Opening-up at the University of International Business and Economics, said that my country’s steady and sustained recovery in foreign trade not only benefits from the stabilization of global trade, but also contributes to the recovery of global trade. It should be noted that the current development of foreign trade still faces many unstable and uncertain factors. It still faces high sea freight prices, insufficient transportation capacity, rising raw material prices and other problems. There is still a long way to go to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade. ?
Data 6 Foreign investment: a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%, maintaining the "gravitational field" of global investment?
Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that in the first quarter, 10,263 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in my country, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%. An increase of 47.8%; the actual amount of foreign capital used was 302.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the two growth rates were 6.7% and 24.8% respectively. ?
It can be said that foreign investment data is as eye-catching as ever. In 2020, global cross-border direct investment (FDI) almost "cut in half", but China's foreign investment absorption increased by 4% against the trend, becoming the world's largest foreign investment inflow country. The performance in the first quarter is enough to prove that China's attraction to foreign investment has not weakened, but continues to increase. As the negative list for foreign investment access is repeatedly "downsized" and bilateral and multilateral investment agreements continue to advance, my country's attraction of foreign investment is expected to continue to improve this year. ?
Data 7 Income: a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and the income of rural residents grew faster?
In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 9,730 yuan, a nominal increase of 13.7% year-on-year. The two-year average nominal growth was 7.0%; after excluding price factors, the year-on-year growth was 13.7%, and the two-year average growth was 4.5%. ?
From the perspective of income sources, the national per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income, and net transfer income increased in nominal terms by 12.4%, 19.5%, 17.0%, and 10.7% respectively year-on-year, achieving two levels. digit growth. ?
It is worth mentioning that in the first quarter, the per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents in my country was 2.43, 0.09 smaller than the same period last year, and the gap continued to narrow. In terms of growth rate, the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 16.3% in nominal terms, which was higher than that of urban residents by 12.2%. Overall, my country's residents' income has continued the trend of rising quarter by quarter since the same period last year, maintaining stable and restorative growth. ?
Data 8 Consumption: The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.9% year-on-year, and the consumer market recovered further?
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide was 10,522.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The two-year average growth rate was 4.2%. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 3,548.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, 0.4 percentage points faster than that from January to February. National online retail sales were 2,809.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. ?
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that factors such as the continued improvement of the consumption environment, the increase in residents' income, and the release of the effects of policies to expand domestic demand promoted the rapid recovery of the consumer market in the first quarter. Offline consumption such as catering is gradually improving.
In the next step, as policies to protect employment, people's livelihood and market entities, support small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households continue to be effective, the vitality of market entities will be further restored, residents' consumption potential will be further released, and the consumer market is expected to continue to recover. . ?
Data 9 Price: CPI is flat year-on-year, and is expected to remain in a moderate range throughout the year?
In the first quarter, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year-on-year. Among them, in March, the year-on-year decrease of 0.2% in the previous month turned to an increase of 0.4%, and the increase was relatively moderate. ?
Yang Zhiyong, a researcher at the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the CPI is flat year-on-year, which is a relatively healthy performance of the economy. The CPI rose moderately in March, mainly driven by the increase in gasoline and diesel prices. However, my country's industrial system is complete, production capacity is sufficient, and macroeconomic control is strong. There is no basis for a sharp increase in industrial consumer goods. In the area of ??food prices, pig production continues to recover and pork prices continue to decline. Throughout the year, there is little upward pressure on CPI and is expected to remain stable and remain within a moderate range. ?
Data 10 Real Estate: Commercial housing sales increased by 88.5% year-on-year, adhering to the principle of "houses for living, not speculation"?
In the first quarter, real estate development investment increased by 25.6% year-on-year, with an average growth of two years 7.6%.
The sales area of ??commercial housing nationwide was 360.07 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 63.8%, and the two-year average growth was 9.9%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 3,837.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.5%, and the two-year average growth was 19.1%. ?
In response to the heating up of the real estate market in some cities, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently interviewed the leaders of five city governments including Guangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, Dongguan, and Nantong, asking them to firmly grasp the purpose of the house. It is positioned as a place to live, not for speculation, and real estate is not used as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term. ?
Mo Tianquan, president of the China Index Research Institute, said that by adhering to the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", real estate regulation in various regions will become more precise with precise targets and effective measures to achieve stable land prices, stable house prices, and Stable expected goals.