Recently, many research institutions and experts have judged the macroeconomic situation and policies of 20 1 1, and the author has put forward some views accordingly after collecting and sorting them out.
Judgment on inflation 20 1 1
For the inflation situation of 20 1 1, major research institutions and experts generally believe that the inflationary pressure of 20 1 1 will further increase.
The first is the predicted value of 20 1 1 year consumer index (CPI). The forecast values of major research institutions before 20 10 and1June were all below 4%, but the original forecast values have been greatly raised since the beginning of February. At present, the CPI forecast value is above 4%, and the highest forecast value reaches 5.5%. Mainly: Green Hao (Research Director of Standard Chartered Bank Greater China) expects CPI to be 5.5%; Lu Ting (chief economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in China) is expected to be 4.5%; The forecasts of CICC and Goldman Sachs are both 4.3%; The inflation monitoring and analysis team of the People's Bank of China, Cao Yuanzheng (chief economist of BOC International) and Liu Shijin (director of the State Council Development Research Center) all predicted 4.2%.
The second is about the CPI trend of 20 1 1. The mainstream view is that CPI is high before and low after, and the high point of monthly increase appears in the first half of the year. The main reason is that this round of inflation rate acceleration started in the second half of 20 10, which determines that the hikes in the first half of 20 1 1 are relatively large.
The third is the analysis of the causes of inflation. Many experts believe that besides the rising prices of agricultural products and other factors will push up the CPI in 20 10, we need to pay more attention to the rising prices of international commodities and the rising labor costs in China in 2010. The analysis of international imported inflationary pressure mainly includes: Wang Jian (Secretary-General of China Macroeconomics Society) estimated that the loss of bad debts caused by the bursting of Japanese asset bubble was about 10% of the value at the peak of asset bubble, while that caused by the bursting of American asset bubble was about $30 trillion. If the Fed has to buy these bad assets, the first two rounds of money circulation are still far from enough, and it is expected that a new round of loose monetary policy will still be implemented; Liu (Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission) believes that financial markets including the United States, the European Union and Japan have about $50 trillion in capital market investment funds, and the proportion of their assets allocated to emerging markets is about 3% ~ 7%. In the future, the proportion will increase by 1 percentage point, which means that 485 billion dollars of new funds will flow into emerging markets, and emerging market countries will face serious asset bubbles and inflationary pressures; Ha Ji Ming (Managing Director, Hong Kong Investment Banking Department, Goldman Sachs) predicts that international commodity prices will continue to rise at 20 1 1, in which oil price will rise to 105 USD/barrel, copper price will rise to1/000 USD/ton and gold will rise to/. Analysis of the reasons for the rising domestic labor costs: Wang Jian (Secretary-General of China Macroeconomic Society) believes that China's economy has reached the so-called "lewis turning point", and the labor force has become relatively scarce, and rising food prices will push up the wage level; Political commissar Lu (senior economist of Industrial Bank) believes that the spiral upward trend of "wage-price" is taking shape.
The author basically agrees with the above experts that the CPI of 20 1 1 is still mainly determined by food prices, and the driving force of food price increase has spread from "market speculation" to "production cost" and other medium and long-term factors, which indicates that inflationary pressure will continue to exist in the future. According to the historical law of price increase in China, the average increase of CPI of 20 1 1 is about 4% ~ 4.2%. However, considering the strong inflation expectation and inflationary pressure, uncertain factors such as weather, epidemic disease and reduced production will lead to an increase in food prices, and it can be judged that the CPI peak will appear in the first quarter. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, from the perspective of the hikes of CPI, 20 1 1 is the highest in the first quarter, which will reach 3.8% and 3.0% in the whole year (the CPI in 2007 and 2009 was 1% in February, and it was -0.2% in 2008 due to the crisis, so. ); Second, judging from the new price increase factors, considering that a large number of fresh agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits have been listed since the second quarter, the prices of agricultural and sideline products will fall seasonally.
20 1 1 annual world economic trend
Major research institutions and experts basically agree that the overall growth rate of the world economy will further slow down in 20 1 1 year. The World Economic Situation and Prospect of 20 10 released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in February 20 10 holds that the main uncertain factors of world economic growth come from the high unemployment rate in developed countries, the fragile financial system, the pressure of sovereign debt and the large fluctuation of exchange rates of major international currencies. It is predicted that the economic growth will be slower in 20 1 1 year, and the world GDP growth will drop from 3.6% in 201year to 3. 1% in 201year. The World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in June 20 10 also believes that the developed economies have cut their budgets one after another due to the sovereign debt crisis, and the pace of global economic growth will be greatly slowed down. The World Economic Yellow Book published by China Academy of Social Sciences in February 20 10 holds that the global economic growth in 2010 will not be optimistic, with an annual growth rate of about 3%, which is higher than that in 2065438.
Some institutions have made specific judgments on outstanding problems such as unemployment rate, public debt and real estate sector in developed economies, mainly including: "World Economic Situation and Prospects in 20 12" issued by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs believes that although the total GDP of the United States is expected to be 20 165438, In the World Economic Outlook published in June 20 10, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the average unemployment rate in the United States would still be as high as 9.6% in 2010/year, and the global real estate market was bleak, and the downturn might last for eight years. The World Economic Yellow Book published by China Academy of Social Sciences in February 20 10 predicts that by 20 15, the proportion of deficit in GDP will reach 1 10%, Italy will reach 125%, and Japan will reach 249%.
Major research institutions also believe that the characteristics of uneven development among countries are still outstanding, and the growth rate of emerging market economies is relatively high. The main reasons are: emerging economies are less affected by the crisis, the balance sheets of households, enterprises, banks, governments and other departments are relatively healthy, economic stimulus policies promote the growth of domestic demand, effectively slow down external shocks, and the recovery is far stronger than that of developed countries. The imbalance of economic growth between the two is still very prominent at 20 1 1.
The author basically agrees with the above view that there are three factors restricting the world economic growth in 20 1 1 year: First, the stimulus policies in developed economies have limited effects. As all sectors in developed economies are repairing their balance sheets, for example, households and enterprises need to increase their savings and banks need to reduce their non-performing assets ratio. Although loose monetary policy has injected a lot of liquidity into the banking system, the credit supply and demand in the real economy are still relatively low. Second, the uncoordinated monetary policies of various countries have aggravated the asset bubbles in emerging market countries. At present, there are differences in monetary policies among countries in the world. Developed economies such as the United States and Europe will continue to implement low interest rate policies for a long time, while emerging market economies such as China and India will continue to raise interest rates, which will lead speculators to borrow low-cost currencies such as US dollars, euros and Japanese yen to reinvest in commodity markets and emerging market countries, aggravate asset bubbles in emerging market countries, and have a negative impact on global exchange rates, commodity prices and macro policies of emerging economies. Third, emerging markets are not completely decoupled from developed economies. World Bank experts analyzed the data of world economic growth in the past 30 years, and divided the growth of different economies into two parts: "long-term growth trend" and "short-term cyclical growth". It is found that in the past decade, the "long-term growth trend" of emerging markets is basically decoupled from that of developed countries, the former is 3-4 percentage points higher than the latter, but the correlation between "periodic growth" is even stronger. Therefore, if the economic growth of major developed countries slows down obviously in 20 1 1 year, the economic growth of emerging markets will also decline.
On the economic growth of China in 20 1 1 year
There are great differences on the economic growth of China in 20 1 1 year. Some research institutions believe that China's economy will continue to grow at a high speed, while others believe that China's economy will obviously slow down.
Those who hold the former attitude mainly include: The Blue Book of Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences holds that the basic factors affecting China's economic operation have not changed significantly in 20 1 1 year, and will maintain a steady and rapid growth trend under the condition of maintaining relatively stable macro-control policies, and the GDP growth rate is expected to reach about 10%. Ba Shusong (Weibo) (Deputy Director of the Institute of Finance, the State Council Development Research Center) believes that the upward pressure on the economy is still greater than the downward pressure, and the annual economic growth rate of 201/kloc-0 is at least 9%. The main reasons are: the international competitiveness of low-end products exports still exists, and its share in world trade will continue to increase; China has a large space for domestic demand and a low household leverage ratio. Government investment in affordable housing and manufacturing will be faster than 20 10.
The view of the latter attitude is that the World Economic Situation and Prospects in 20 10 released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in February 20 10 holds that the effect of macro-control policies and the weak recovery of major developed countries may slow down the growth rate of China, and the economic growth forecast for 2010 is 8. The World Bank predicts that China's economy will grow by 8.7% in 20 1 10. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, China's economy will continue to grow in 20 1 1 year, but the growth rate will slow down. In view of the stricter restrictions on credit growth, the cooling of the real estate market and the restrictions on real estate loans by banks, as well as the exit strategy planned by the China government in 20 1 1 year, the annual growth rate is expected to be 9.6%.
The author's point of view is that China's economic growth will slow down, but it will remain at a high level. The main reason is that China's economic growth faces the double pressures of the sluggish world economic environment and the tightening domestic policy environment. However, 20 1 1 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and there are many new investment projects, which determines that the economic growth rate will not be too low. Specifically: First, the export growth rate will drop significantly. 20 10 China's export growth rate exceeded expectations. One of the main reasons is that the export growth rate in 2009 was negative and the base was too low. However, compared with the export scale before the crisis, the export growth rate in 20 10 is only about 8%. 20 1 1, although exports continue to recover, the growth rate will not be too high. It is estimated that the annual export growth will be about 15%. Second, the growth rate of consumption remained stable. Although the upgrading of consumption structure represented by real estate and automobiles has slowed down, the promotion of infrastructure improvement on low-end durable consumer goods will gradually emerge. It is estimated that the annual consumption will increase by about 15% and 438+0 1 in 2065 (from the historical data, infrastructure improvement is conducive to promoting the consumption of durable goods, such as roads, power facilities, TV signals and other facilities have obvious positive correlation with the consumption of automobiles and household appliances). Third, the growth rate of investment will drop slightly. The peak of the last round of infrastructure investment has passed, and the tightening of monetary and credit policies and the effect of real estate market regulation and control policies have constituted the downward pressure on investment growth. However, considering that 20 1 1 is the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, many new projects have been launched and the investment in affordable housing has been further increased. At the same time, according to the spirit analysis of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Shandong Economic Work Conference, the government is determined to maintain a certain economic growth rate at 20 1 1. It is estimated that the investment growth rate in 20 1 1 year will be slightly lower than that in 201year, and it will remain at around 20% for the whole year.
20 1 1 China's macro-policy suggestions
Most economists generally agree with the tight monetary policy of 20 1 1, but there are differences on the choice and degree of specific tools. Ma Jun (an economist at Deutsche Bank) thinks that the appropriate monetary growth of 20 1 1 should be 15%, and the loan growth should be 14%, that is, 6.5 trillion yuan; Wang Zhihao (Research Director, Standard Chartered Bank Greater China) predicts that there will be four interest rate hikes in 20 1 1 year, each with 25 basis points. The scale of bank credit will be around 6 trillion to 7 trillion, and the growth rate of credit will be reduced from 20 12% 18% to 65,438+. Gao Shanwen (chief economist of Essence Securities) thinks that there is still room for two or three interest rate hikes by the middle of 20 1 1 year, and it is not excluded that the reserve ratio, benchmark interest rate and exchange rate will act at the same time. Political commissar Lu (senior economist of Industrial Bank) believes that it is necessary to raise the reserve ratio at an average frequency of 1 month in the first quarter of 20 1 year; Ji Ming (Managing Director of Hong Kong Investment Banking Department of Goldman Sachs) suggested giving more play to the role of exchange rate instruments.
Some experts also oppose tight monetary policy. For example, Wang Jian (Secretary-General of China Macroeconomics Society) believes that inflation should always take a secondary position relative to economic growth, and the current inflation is cost-driven. Tight monetary policy is not conducive to solving the inflation problem, but will only suppress the motivation of enterprises to develop production. He suggested continuing to implement loose monetary policy to maintain growth, and using fiscal policy to increase subsidies to fight inflation.