Risk refers to the possibility of a certain loss in a certain environment and within a certain period of time. Risk consists of risk factors, risk accidents and risk losses. In other words, in a certain period of time, the distance between what people expect to achieve and what actually happens is called risk.
For example, on a snowy day, during the rush hour, someone is riding a bicycle without brakes and bells from home and is going to the shopping center to buy leather shoes. Unfortunately, a traffic accident happened halfway. Let's analyze it below:
Heavy snow, rush hour and bicycles without brakes and bells are risk factors;
Traffic accidents are risk accidents;
The death or disability of the party concerned is the loss caused by the risk accident.
There is a huge distance between the original purpose of shopping and the result of lying dead on the street.
In daily life, this sudden risk accident often brings a heavy blow to an originally happy family.
In a word, the increase of risk factors will lead to the increase of the possibility of risk accidents; The occurrence of risk accidents may lead to losses. This is the dialectical relationship between risk factors.
What is a risk accident?
Risk accident refers to an accidental event that causes damage to life and property, and is the direct cause of the damage. Only through the occurrence of risk accidents can losses be caused. Risk accident means that the possibility of risk has been transformed into reality.
For an event, under certain conditions, if it is the direct cause of loss, it is a risk accident; Under other conditions, if it is an indirect cause of loss, it is a risk factor. The hail below made the road slippery and caused a car accident, causing casualties. At this time, hail is a risk factor, and car accidents are risk accidents. If the hail directly hits pedestrians seriously, the hail itself is a risk accident.
Definition of transportation risk Some people think that international trade risk is the risk existing in the process of international trade, while others think that international trade risk refers to the possibility that some factors related to international trade change unexpectedly in a certain period of time, resulting in the inconsistency between the actual income and the expected income or the actual cost and the expected cost of international trade subjects, thus suffering losses.
Information asymmetry is the main cause of international trade risks. Take the risk of international maritime cargo trade as an example. In the import business with CIF price as the transaction, we usually encounter natural disasters, accidents, transportation fraud and other risks.
Natural disasters refer to bad weather, lightning, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, etc. Accidents refer to the phenomenon that ships run aground, collide, sink and disappear; Transportation fraud refers to the behavior that one party to the contract or the carrier or its agent intentionally conceals the facts, but the other party causes losses or loses its income during the transportation of goods.
It can be seen that it is basically impossible for an importing enterprise to accurately grasp the natural disaster information of a certain sea surface on the earth. It is also difficult to know when and where the carrying ship will run aground, collide, sink or disappear; Whether the ship has issued a fake bill of lading, whether the goods will be delivered without bill of lading, whether the seller on the other side of the contract has shipped inferior goods, and whether it colluded with the carrier, all of these situations can not obtain sufficient and necessary information for a kind contract party.
But for the seller and the carrier, this information is more sufficient. Experienced captains will know a lot about nature, climate, geographical conditions, route conditions and ship efficiency. The carrier or its agent will know about the goods, shipment and ship operation through yards, transportation companies, warehouses and other channels, and the seller is very familiar with the quality, packaging, customs clearance and foreign exchange settlement of products.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the buyer has little information, while the seller and the carrier have more information, which leads to the asymmetry of information, thus leading to risks in international trade.
The risks of international trade are classified from different angles. According to the nature of risks, there are static risks and dynamic risks. From the cause of formation, it can be divided into natural risk, social risk and business risk; From the form of expression, it can be divided into tangible risk and intangible risk; From the perspective of action intensity, it can be divided into high risk, medium risk and low risk. Wait a minute.
Others divide international trade risks into three categories: country risk, market risk and fraud risk; There are also in-depth classification from the perspective of market risk: the risk of regional selection and entry opportunities in the international market, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, and the risk of political situation. In view of the operational risks of export business, it is generally believed that it should be divided into six categories: delivery risk, foreign exchange collection risk, payment risk, market risk, domestic customer credit risk and foreign customer credit risk.
International trade risks should be divided from macro and micro perspectives. From a macro perspective, international trade risks should include political risks, social risks, policy risks, economic risks, technological risks and cultural risks of countries and target market countries, that is, structural risks of PEST in the marketing environment. From a microscopic point of view, international trade risks should include business strategy and business strategy risks, the latter being the most common, such as contract risk, transportation risk, settlement risk and price risk.
International trade risk management
1. Identify international trade risks. First of all, through the risk analysis and factor decomposition in international trade, the complex phenomenon in international trade is decomposed into a series of factors that constitute the risk impact, and the risks brought by these factors to international trade are found out. In the process of identifying international trade risks, common methods include fault tree and decision tree. Delphi method, expert meeting method and scenario analysis method can also be used.
2. Measure the risks of international trade. Firstly, probability is used to measure the possibility of risk occurrence, and secondly, the severity of risk consequences is measured. Of course, the probability of risk occurrence is mainly determined by subjective estimation.
3. formulate countermeasures. The purpose of identifying and measuring international trade risks is to serve the formulation of countermeasures. Therefore, after identifying and measuring the risks of international trade, countermeasures should be formulated in combination with the actual situation and objective conditions of enterprises. In the process of formulating countermeasures, utility theory, two-factor comprehensive control method and multi-objective decision-making are usually used, and economic analysis methods such as cost-benefit analysis are also used.
4. Control the risks of international trade. The risk control of international trade should constantly re-identify and measure risks according to the development and changes of the market and business, and constantly seek, discover and update risk response measures to ensure the smooth progress and continuous development of the business.
I copied other people's things, but after reading them anyway, I increased my understanding of trade risks.
Definition of security risk Traditionally, there are two methods of security risk management: forward-looking method and reactive method, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. There are two different methods to determine the priority of risks: qualitative security risk management and quantitative security risk management.
Definition of News Risk "The Risk of News Reporting"
■ Hu Huatao
0 15 2006 10 month 16: 13 word message forum printing closed.
After reading the article "The Risk of Watching News Reports through the Vaccine Incident" published by Mr. Xia in the ninth issue of your magazine in 2005, the author thinks that this article exaggerates the reporting risk of the Vaccine Incident. The so-called "reporting risk" belongs to the category of reporting authenticity. As far as the case of "vaccine" is concerned, the reporting risk is the possible adverse transmission effect caused by reporting the vaccine as "fake vaccine", "problem vaccine" and "fatal vaccine" during the whole incident reporting process. Investigating the whole reporting process of "vaccine incident", the risk of news reporting comes down to the objectivity of news timeliness; The media lacks a fair position; (news media practitioners) eager for quick success and instant benefit, making wild guesses and reporting irresponsibly; It is unfair and simple to "draw a conclusion" on news facts prematurely, which leads to the lack of scientificity in solving problems and depth in news reports, and is worth further discussion. Judging from the writing rules and cognitive rules of news interview, the reporting of major news events involves not only the relationship between news facts and news truth, but also how to grasp the process of news reporting and the social communication effect of news.
● The "primary essence" of news facts is not equal to the truth of news.
Judging from the reporting rules of major news events, news reporting is a process, a series and a process. In this process, there are both the requirements of transmitting information and the requirements of explaining, explaining and analyzing the meaning and connotation of facts. However, due to the exposure of objective things and the limitation of the practical level and cognitive ability of the reporting subject (reporter or correspondent), the speed and depth of understanding the essence of things are different. Lenin once pointed out: "People's thoughts go from phenomenon to essence, from the so-called primary essence to the secondary essence, thus deepening and even becoming infinite ..." (Lenin: Philosophical Notes, p. 256). Here refers to the understanding from "primary essence" to "secondary essence" and then to deepening. Because things themselves are often a complex system, the characteristics of things are superficial and deep: such as time, place, people, plot, process, scale and so on. , clear, intuitive, concrete and easy to understand; In-depth information is the internal connection of facts, such as reasons, meanings, backgrounds and trends, which is hidden, non-intuitive, abstract and difficult to understand.
Throughout the reporting process of the whole vaccine incident, its understanding of the incident is a gradual and in-depth process. On June 17 and June 18, more than 2,500 primary and secondary school students in Dazhuang Town 19, Sixian County, Anhui Province were vaccinated with hepatitis A vaccine, and some students showed abnormal reactions after vaccination. This is the basic factual information of news.
On June 2 1, Anhui Xin 'an Evening News published a report that dozens of primary school students in Sixian County, Anhui Province were suspected of being hospitalized with fake vaccines. This is the initial report and explanation of the basic news facts. The word "suspect" was used before the fake vaccine, indicating that the problem is complicated and the reason is unknown.
June 25th, Xinhua News Agency. Com reported that Wei Li, a 4-and-a-half-year-old girl, died on June 23rd.
This is a major change in the event, and it is urgent to find out the reasons behind it and the possible development trend. In just a few days, CCTV, Youth Times and Morning News all reported with different titles that vaccine dealers had criminal records of selling fake vaccines in the "vaccine incident", and deep-seated situations such as frequent loopholes in vaccine transportation and management and kickbacks by parties were also exposed. This is the main essence of the event.
Or Xinhua Hefei reported on June 25: Sixian Health Bureau identified Wei Li's death as "respiratory failure caused by severe bacillary dysentery"; According to the report of Yangzi Evening News on June 29th, the cause of infant death in Anhui vaccine incident was preliminarily identified by Anhui Provincial Health Department on June 28th: it may be that some children had allergic reaction and group psychogenic reaction after vaccination with hepatitis A vaccine, and the cause of child death may be related to severe infection combined with immune reaction after vaccination.
On June 30, People's Daily reported the Anhui vaccine incident: the Ministry of Health initially identified it as a group psychogenic reaction. On the 29th, the Ministry of Health initially identified it as a group psychogenic reaction. Minister Gao Qiang said that whether the incident was related to the quality of the vaccine could not be finally determined, and it would have to wait for the results of China Institute for the Control of Pharmaceutical and Biological Products. This is the primary nature of the incident gradually deepened to the second, third and fourth levels.
According to Sina. Com reported on July 16 that the China Institute for the Control of Pharmaceutical and Biological Products declared that the hepatitis A vaccine used in the vaccine incident in Sixian County, Anhui Province was qualified, and the Ministry of Health identified this incident as "a group psychogenic reaction caused by illegal collective vaccination of hepatitis A vaccine". At this point, the reflection on the event has reached the essential stage.
From June 2 1 to July 16, it is a complete reporting process. Among them, the media said that "problem vaccine" and "fatal vaccine incident" meet the "primary essence" requirements of news facts. Because vaccines that are not regulated by law can be said to be "problematic" (not specifically referring to quality); Because someone died in the incident, it can be said to be "fatal" (whatever the reason). These are all in line with the "temporary truth" of the facts in a specific time and space (referring to the period when the cause of death of children and the quality of vaccines are uncertain). It can be seen that news reports composed of news facts are not necessarily accurate because of the complexity and diversity of world things and people's observation and judgment of facts, and sometimes they can't touch the essence of things at once. Although news facts and news truth are unified, they cannot be equated.
In the process of major news reports, journalists constantly reflect different news facts from previous reports, which conforms to people's cognitive laws. As long as you don't make mistakes intentionally, as long as you don't break the law and cause serious and irreparable losses, as long as you can correct some initial deviations in subsequent reports, it is recognized by the law of news reporting. Like other scientific work such as medicine, our reporters often face some uncertainties and knowledge blind spots, so it is inevitable that news reports occasionally appear "deviation".
● Noisy effect: not equal to the lack of a fair position.
Mr. Xia believes that the hasty characterization and exaggeration of the "deadly vaccine" has become the "eye of the storm" of the whole incident, and it has also contributed to the social risks of news reports. He also said that "the noise effect is an important way for the market logic to dominate the media", but "the media forgot its due third-party position and joined the angry public team to take the lead in judging the vaccine".
In fact, from suspected "fake vaccine" to "problem vaccine" and then to "lethal vaccine" is the logical result of the development of the vaccine incident itself. It is true that some irrational words and emotions in the report have appeared in newspapers, but that is only because of the suspicious mentality in uncertain times. In this regard, it is inevitable to think that "hasty characterization and exaggeration have contributed to the social risks of news reports". If the "noise effect" is the result of the astonishing degree of news events themselves, it is really beyond reproach. The "vaccine incident" occurred less than 20 days after the implementation of the Regulations on the Administration of Vaccine Circulation and Vaccination, which is a major public health and safety issue after SARS. Its news value and significance are undoubtedly remarkable, and the "noise effect" does not necessarily mean the lack of a fair position. The so-called "just position" of news reports has at least four meanings: first, it requires journalists to be impartial when choosing facts; Second, journalists should be detached from the facts reported; Third, journalists should not comment on facts; Fourth, strive for fairness and balance, and give both sides a chance to reply in a way that can provide sufficient information to the audience. Judging from the coverage of the whole vaccine incident, the basic position of the media is objective and balanced. This can be seen from the related report of Sina News Center on June 29th:
□ Gao Qiang: The quality of vaccines in Sixian County of Anhui Province cannot be finalized (2005062920:0 1)
□ Vaccine incident in Sixian County, Anhui Province:1/people developed medical association disease (20050629 19:56)
□ Zhejiang Pukang Company suspended the sale and use of some hepatitis A vaccines (20050629 19: 16).
□ Preliminary identification of the cause of infant death in Anhui vaccine incident (20050629 18:26)
□ The vaccination accident exposed deep-seated problems (20050629 15:25)
□ Preliminary investigation report on vaccines in Sixian county, Anhui Province issued by Zhejiang Drug Administration (20050629 13:20)
□ Three suspects who killed the vaccine revealed the reason why the inventor who bought the insider vaccine questioned (2005062908:29)
□ The chairman of the vaccine production company said that the girl died of dysentery (2005062902:37).
□ Experts said that the child's symptoms were inconsistent with the pathological features after the vaccine had problems (2005062900:53).
These reports reflect the understanding of the incident by all parties in the middle of the incident. Especially after the intervention of the Ministry of Health, the situation reports and expert opinions at many news conferences led the mainstream of public opinion, and the social response was calm. Although in the early days of the incident report, some media reported one side of the story. For example, according to Mr. Xia, Xinhua Net Hefei, June 25th: Pan Longgen, the pediatric attending doctor of Sixian People's Hospital, said, "The hearts and livers of these children have been damaged to varying degrees, and some symptoms are serious, with myocardial enzymes as high as more than 2,000, exceeding the standard 10 times, even higher than the liver damage caused by drinking pesticides." However, this is also the opinion of the medical staff quoted by the reporter. They are only early reports, not to mention the reports in the middle and late stages have been "revised" to varying degrees. Therefore, the impartial position of news media needs to examine and analyze its final report, and it is all kinds of different voices that constitute the basic impartiality of media attitude.
● The so-called "negative effect" is hype.
Another important part of reporting risks is the social communication effect. Before talking about this issue, let me say a few things: First, as Mr. Xia said, "As we all know, the starting point of public opinion supervision is to speak with facts. However, when the loopholes in vaccine transportation and management and corruption problems such as' eating students' were exposed one by one, the media connected all the facts and concluded that people and things related to vaccines have problems, and vaccines naturally have problems. " Please note that the media only reported the preliminary conclusions of some relevant departments. Second, in the whole "vaccine incident", it is not as Mr. Xia said that "everyone and everything are not necessarily related to the vaccine. There are loopholes in transportation and management, and the reasons for the corruption of' eating students' cannot be exported. " Although the vaccine incident was finally determined to have nothing to do with the quality of the vaccine itself, it was caused by illegal vaccination and cannot be ignored. There are media reports, but more are aimed at related corruption and loopholes. In addition, the media is more waiting for the scientific conclusion of this incident.
Let's look at the negative effects of public opinion orientation (first, it expands the dissatisfaction of the whole society, thus adversely affecting social stability and harmony; Second, it constitutes undue public pressure, which affects judicial justice and the normal operation of professional institutions; Third, it has brought huge losses to vaccine manufacturers. Please read the report of Oriental Morning Post on July 4th. On the same day, the reporter interviewed Du, member of the Standing Committee of Sixian County Committee and Minister of Propaganda, medical psychologist of Shanghai Mental Health Research Center, and doctoral supervisor and professor of School of Journalism and Communication of Nanjing University. They talked about their views from three aspects: local party and government, medicine and news dissemination.
Morning Post reporter: Some people think that in this "mass psychological reaction incident", media intervention strengthened the "collective psychological suggestion", which played a role of "adding fuel to the flames" and increased the ruling cost of relevant departments. Therefore, the media should not be involved in similar mass incidents in the future. what do you think?
Wang Zhen: With the concentration of multimedia here, our reception, service and management tasks have increased. But the media is the channel for the masses to know the truth, which is consistent with our starting point and foothold. As for "collective psychological suggestion", in fact, even without media reinforcement, there will be other forms, such as oral communication and telephone calls. From the actual situation, I think the involvement of the media has played a positive and positive role in the proper handling of the incident.
Du Song Ya: Everything must be split in two. It is a good thing that the media who can speak and dare to speak get involved, which has aroused great concern in society. Of course, from a medical point of view, media reports can objectively strengthen the role of "collective psychological suggestion", but from a general point of view, this can not be entirely attributed to the media-our professionals also made mistakes in the preliminary appraisal (referring to the preliminary conclusion of "allergic reaction" drawn from the initial provincial consultation), and most media only reported this preliminary conclusion.
Pan Zhichang: We can't simply judge whether the media should intervene based on whether the reports in a region are favorable or unfavorable to an event. Sixian is transparent from beginning to end. As long as it does not affect medical work, processing procedures and developments, all our actions do not avoid the camera.
Morning Post reporter: Insisting on "transparency", don't you think it will increase the burden and expose some problems more easily?
Wang Zhen: The problem does not exist because it is exposed. Exposure will only make things better. For example, after the conclusion of "psychogenic events" came out, the media followed up in time, which played an important role in publicizing scientific health knowledge to the masses, relieving psychological pressure, discharging asymptomatic and clinical children in time and avoiding cross-infection.
Du: From a psychological point of view, some "collective psychological hints" and some "psychological compensation" in the incident appeared after some information was spread through the media. However, whether it is the participation of the media or the principle of "transparency" in the release of information in Sixian County, there is nothing wrong with it. There is nothing wrong with caring.
(The quotation is abridged)
As can be seen from the above, it is very important to look at the social effects of news reports when talking about the risks of news reports. Judging from this report, the reporting effect of vaccine events is basically positive. This tells us that the public opinion effect of media reports exposing social problems cannot be simply regarded as the cause of social dissatisfaction and the factor of social disharmony. If the media remain silent and indifferent to major social issues, it will inevitably lead to rumors spreading everywhere, which will really cause social instability. At that time, the risk brought to society was beyond the risk of reporting deviation. Therefore, the spread risk of media news reports does not lie in touching the public's public opinion nerves, causing them to think consciously and express different opinions, but in whether the media reported the development of the incident in a timely, positive and true manner, and whether the delay in reporting caused a passive situation to all aspects of work. The media's active intervention in life and supervision of society may bring some public pressure to some departments, but it is an efficient catalyst to solve complex social problems that the public cares about, and often can solve the problems as soon as possible. The "vaccine incident" quickly came to a conclusion and was properly handled in time, which is a practical example.
(The writer is a doctoral student at the School of Journalism and Communication of Wuhan University and a lecturer at Zhanjiang Normal University. )
The definition of speculative risk is that risk refers to the possibility of a certain loss in a certain environment and within a certain period of time. Risk consists of risk factors, risk accidents and risk losses. In other words, in a certain period of time, the distance between what people expect to achieve and what actually happens is called risk. For example, on a snowy day, during the rush hour, someone is riding a bicycle without brakes and bells from home and is going to the shopping center to buy leather shoes. Unfortunately, a traffic accident happened halfway. Here, let's analyze: heavy snow, rush hour, bicycle without brakes and bells and other risk factors; Traffic accidents are risk accidents; The death or disability of the party concerned is the loss caused by the risk accident. There is a huge distance between the original purpose of shopping and the result of lying dead on the street. In daily life, this sudden risk accident often brings a heavy blow to an originally happy family. In a word, the increase of risk factors will lead to the increase of the possibility of risk accidents; The occurrence of risk accidents may lead to losses. This is the dialectical relationship between risk factors. What is a risk accident? Risk accident refers to an accidental event that causes damage to life and property, and is the direct cause of the damage. Only through the occurrence of risk accidents can losses be caused. Risk accident means that the possibility of risk has been transformed into reality. For an event, under certain conditions, if it is the direct cause of loss, it is a risk accident; Under other conditions, if it is an indirect cause of loss, it is a risk factor. The hail below made the road slippery and caused a car accident, causing casualties. At this time, hail is a risk factor, and car accidents are risk accidents. If the hail directly hits pedestrians seriously, the hail itself is a risk accident.
Definition of business process risk Business process risk refers to the deviation of value creation activities from the pre-designed acceptable range due to errors caused by measurement and measurement in the input and output of business processes.
This is my personal summary, and the shortcomings can be discussed. )
What is the definition of credit risk and what is the difference from credit risk? Credit risk is a kind of credit risk.
credit risk
The formation of credit risk is a gradual process from germination, accumulation to occurrence. Before the repayment period expires, the borrower's financial and commercial conditions have undergone major adverse changes, which may affect its performance ability. In addition to the general default clause and guarantee, the lender can also stipulate "cross-default clause" in the contract. The basic meaning of cross-default is that if the debtor under this contract defaults under other loan contracts, it is also regarded as a breach of this contract. Generally speaking, creditors hold the debtor liable for breach of contract on the grounds that the parties fail to perform their obligations under this contract, but the cross-default clause breaks through this restriction and smacks of "fighting first and then suffering", that is, trying to take relief measures before the repayment crisis of the borrower's debts under other loan contracts, so as to avoid falling into a worse situation than other creditors. Although this form of breach of contract is not clearly stipulated in the current law of our country, it does not violate the relevant jurisprudence and legal spirit of the contract law, and the right of uneasy defense in the current contract law can be used as the legal basis for its application. Therefore, the cross-default clause can be written into the contract as an agreed clause, so that the lender can fully grasp the borrower's credit level in time.
credit risk
Credit risk, also known as default risk, refers to the risk of economic loss caused by the counterparty's failure to perform the obligations in the agreed contract, that is, the possibility that the trustee can't perform the obligation of repaying the principal and interest, which makes the expected income of the grantor deviate from the actual income. This is the main type of financial risk. In the past few years, credit derivatives using new financial instruments to manage credit risk have developed rapidly. Proper use of credit derivatives can reduce the credit risk of investors. According to industry estimates, the credit derivatives market has only developed for a few years, with a global transaction volume of $20 billion in 1995.
It is not difficult to discuss the definition of risk.
Both A and C are right, but please look at the topic clearly.
C is the definition of risk in insurance, and here is the definition of risk in a general sense. There is still a difference between the two.
As long as you pay attention to the exam, it is not difficult to do this at all.