At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total debt of China residents exceeded 200 trillion yuan, the per capita debt was 1.47 million, and the national savings rate dropped from 5 1.8% to 45%.
The total market value of real estate in China is in the order of 400-500 trillion, so let's calculate it as 450 trillion. The total mortgage loan of 53 trillion yuan is only 12%.
So, can young people with debts bear the future of real estate?
The mortgage problem is not today's problem, but the biggest problem that has plagued many people for a long time. In the context of the epidemic, it will soon become a systematic problem.
Under the influence of the epidemic, many people's income has been greatly affected, but the mortgage debt has not decreased, and many people's repayment is unpredictable, which has affected their reputation. Not to mention those who are unemployed.
In the past five years, the growth rate was lower than double digits for the first time. People really can't afford it and have no money! At present, the leverage ratio of residents has been at a high level of 60% in the last three years, and it can't go up! Since last year, the central bank has continuously lowered RRR and cut interest rates. Since last year, almost all cities except first-tier cities have liberalized their regulation. Not only that, they have even started, such as 20% down payment, children buying a house, using their parents' provident fund loans, deed tax reduction and so on. However, there is still no mortgage data.
Since 2000, China has been the largest saver in the world. In eight years, the savings rate rose from 32% to 52%, while the world savings rate was 27% in the same period, almost twice the world average. After the financial crisis in 2008, it fell all the way, and it was 44% in 2020. Although it is still higher than the world level, the household debt ratio has soared from 18% to 56%. At present, the total debt of China people is 20 billion, and the per capita debt is 1.47 million.
Look at the mortgage situation in recent years.
In the first quarter of 20 18, the mortgage balance was 34 trillion, up 20.3% year-on-year.
20 19 The balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 40 trillion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2020, the mortgage balance was 46 trillion, up 13.9% year-on-year.
202 1 the balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 50 trillion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2022, the balance of mortgage loans was 53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6%.
According to the survey data of 30,000 urban residents by the central bank, the average household debt ratio is 57%, of which 77% have mortgages, accounting for 75% of the total liabilities.
Look at reality through data. 70% of China residents' debts are concentrated on mortgage. The pressure of mortgage repayment is too great, especially the impact of the epidemic in the past two years. Everyone is tight with their wallets and dare not spend a penny. Children's education expenses and medical expenses are both big expenditure items. A broken income means a broken cash flow, which means that your house has become an auction house. Became an employee of the bank.
It is even more difficult for young people who have not bought a house. I'm afraid the idea of buying a house is difficult to realize. Nowadays, young people dare not even think about it without the help of their families. If young people don't take over, how can house prices rise? How much is this house? Even if it rises, it is also the core area of first-tier cities. This is beyond the reach of ordinary people and they dare not even think about it.
What is the significance of per capita debt? Actually, it doesn't mean much. At present, the supply of houses still exceeds demand, mainly because the price is too high. Whether to buy a house or not, young people are not so persistent now. It is most important to have a stable job and a salary. National real estate regulation is mainly structural regulation.
How to calculate the mortgage
Loan interest is a kind of principal interest that buyers borrow from banks and pay at the interest rate stipulated by banks. The calculation formula of interest is:
Interest = principal × interest rate× deposit period (i.e. time).
The calculation of mortgage interest will be different because of the different loan methods and mortgage repayment methods.
According to the different repayment methods of mortgage, the calculation of mortgage interest can be divided into two calculation methods: equal principal and interest and average principal.
How to calculate the mortgage interest? First of all, we should understand the basic knowledge of interest.
I. The interest rate conversion formula for RMB business is (note: common for deposits and loans):
Daily interest rate (0/000)= annual interest rate (%)÷360= monthly interest rate (‰)÷30.
2. Monthly interest rate (‰) = annual interest rate (%)÷ 12
Two, banks can use product interest method and transaction interest method to calculate interest.
1. Accumulate the account balance daily according to the actual number of days, and multiply the accumulated product by the daily interest rate to calculate the interest. The interest-bearing formula is:
Interest = cumulative interest-bearing product × daily interest rate, where cumulative interest-bearing product = total daily balance.
2. Transaction-by-transaction interest calculation method calculates interest one by one according to the preset interest calculation formula: interest = principal × interest rate × loan term, with three details:
If the interest-bearing period is a whole year (month), the interest-bearing formula is:
① Interest = principal × year (month )× year (month) interest rate
If the interest-bearing period is a whole year (month) and days, the interest-bearing formula is:
② Interest = principal × year (month) × year (month) interest rate principal × odd days × daily interest rate.
At the same time, banks can choose to convert all interest-bearing periods into actual days to calculate interest, that is, 365 days per year (366 days in leap years), and each month is the actual number of days in the Gregorian calendar of the current month. The interest-bearing formula is as follows:
③ Interest = principal × actual days × daily interest rate
These three formulas are essentially the same, but because the interest rate conversion is only 360 days a year, when calculating the actual daily interest rate, it will be calculated as 365 days a year, and the result will be slightly biased.
Which formula is used specifically, the central bank gives financial institutions the right to choose independently. Therefore, the parties and financial institutions can agree on this in the contract.
Extended data:
Calculation method
Tool description
1, operation steps:
Step 1: First, choose whether your repayment method is average capital or equal principal and interest, and fill in the commercial loan term, loan amount and actual loan interest rate;
Step 2: Select whether to display repayment details, and click "Calculate" to get detailed information such as monthly repayment amount, total loan interest, total repayment amount, etc.
point out
1. Commercial loans are loans used to supplement the working capital of industrial and commercial enterprises. Generally, they are short-term loans, usually 9 months, and no more than one year at most, but there are also a few medium-and long-term loans. This kind of loan is the main part of commercial bank loans, generally accounting for more than one-third of the total loans.
2. Calculate the monthly payment, total interest and total repayment of commercial loans when choosing the repayment method of average capital and equal principal and interest.
According to the repayment formula of general mortgage loans, it can be divided into two types:
I. Calculation formula of equal principal and interest:
Calculation principle: from the beginning of monthly contribution, the bank collects the interest of the remaining principal first, and then the principal; The proportion of interest in monthly payment decreases with the decrease of residual principal, and the proportion of principal in monthly payment increases with the increase, but the total monthly payment remains unchanged.
It should be pointed out that:
1, the maximum amount of urban provident fund loans should be combined with local conditions;
2. For residents who have borrowed money to buy a house but whose per capita area is lower than the local average, and then apply for buying a second set of ordinary self-occupied housing, the preferential policies for buying ordinary self-occupied housing with the first set of loans shall be implemented mutatis mutandis.
Second, the average capital calculation formula:
Monthly repayment = monthly principal, monthly principal and interest
Monthly principal = principal/repayment months
Monthly principal and interest = (principal-total accumulated repayment) x monthly interest rate
Calculation principle: the amount of principal returned every month is always the same, and the interest will decrease with the decrease of the remaining principal.
Formula description
According to the above formula
Principal: total loan amount
Number of repayment months: loan term X 12. For example, for a loan of 10 years, the repayment period is 10X 12= 120 months.
Monthly interest rate: monthly interest rate = annual interest rate/12.
Annual interest rate: that is, in the hot topic of mortgage discussion, the figure obtained after the base interest rate is 30% off and 8.5% off.
Cumulative repayment amount: the cumulative repayment amount in the first month of average capital repayment law is 0.
For example: 2009 annual interest rate table
Basic annual interest rate: 5.94%
15% annual interest rate: 5.05%
30% annual interest rate: 4. 16%
Annual interest rate of provident fund: 3.87%
explain
Mr. Wang borrowed 400,000 yuan from the bank to buy a house and paid it off in 20 years. The bank gave Mr. Wang a 30% interest rate.
If the annual interest rate is changed to monthly interest rate, the monthly interest rate is 4.16%/12 = 0.00347.
Average capital repayment method:
Monthly principal = 400,000/240 =1.67
Monthly principal and interest = 400,000× 0.00347 =1388.
Repayment in the first month =1.671388 = 3054.67 (yuan)