The consequences of excessive expansion of the bubble are expected reversal, high vacancy rate and price collapse, that is, the bubble burst, which is unsustainable in nature.
I. Introduction CHARLESPKINDLEBERGER wrote in the entry "Bubble" written for the New palgrave Dictionary of Economics: "Bubble can be loosely defined as: the price of an asset or a series of assets rises sharply in a continuous process, and the initial price rise makes people expect the price to rise further, thus attracting new buyers-these people are generally speculators who profit from the assets.
As the price rises, there will often be a reversal and the price will plummet, which usually leads to a financial crisis.
"The so-called bubble refers to the sudden rise in the price of an asset in the process of continuous trading, and the price seriously deviates from the value. At this time, the economy is full of currency bubbles that cannot reflect material wealth.
When the asset price rises to an unbearable level, it will inevitably plummet, as if the bubble burst and the economy began to turn from prosperity to recession. This is the so-called "bubble economy".
Its two characteristics are: the supply and demand of commodities are seriously unbalanced, and the demand is far greater than the supply and demand; Speculative trading atmosphere is very strong.
The real estate bubble is a kind of bubble, which is based on real estate. It refers to the serious deviation between real estate price and value caused by real estate speculation, and the market price is divorced from the support of actual users.
The earliest real estate bubble that can be verified is the Florida real estate bubble that occurred in 1923- 1926. This frenzy of real estate speculation triggered the collapse of Wall Street stock market, and led to the global economic crisis led by the United States in the 1930s, which finally led to the outbreak of World War II.
The land price bubble, which began to accumulate in the 1970s and burst in the early 1990s, is the longest real estate bubble in history. From the bursting of the 199 1 land price bubble to now, the economy has never been out of the shadow of depression, and it has even been compared to another "defeat" after World War II.
Second, the characteristics of 1. Real estate bubble is a form of real estate price fluctuation; 2. The real estate bubble refers to the fluctuation of real estate prices, with a large range; 3. The fluctuation of real estate price is not continuous, and there is no stable cycle and frequency; 4. The real estate bubble is mainly speculation, which is caused by the sharp increase of money supply in the short and medium term of the real estate economic system.
Its two characteristics are: the supply and demand of commodities are seriously unbalanced, and the demand is far greater than the supply; Speculative trading atmosphere is very strong.
The real estate bubble is a kind of bubble, which is based on real estate. It means that real estate speculation leads to a serious deviation between real estate price and use value, and the market price is divorced from the support of actual users.
Third, the judgment is 1. House price performance: the selling price is abnormally high, the overall price rises, the actual rent falls (1), and the price is too high.
The ratio of house price to income is the basic index of real estate price.
The high ratio of house price to income means that the real estate price is divorced from the demand base.
The suitable ratio of house price to income in the world is generally between 1: 2-6. In 2004, the national average price of commercial housing reached 2770 yuan/square meter, and the national average price-income ratio was close to 1: 8. Many cities are above 1 instead of 10.
According to the survey of 50 cities in China in June 2003 and October 2004, more than 66% of the respondents thought it was very high, and more than 58% thought it was very high.
(2) The price rises rapidly.
The continuous sharp rise in real estate prices is an important manifestation of the real estate bubble.
Reasonable price growth should not be higher than the growth of disposable income, otherwise this growth will not be sustainable for a long time.
Officials of the Ministry of Construction believe that the basic axis of the annual growth rate of house prices should be 3%.
Since 2003, the real estate price in China has risen rapidly. From June to September, 2004, the housing sales price increased by 13.4% year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of per capita disposable income of 8.7% (adjusted by CPI index).
(3) the price has risen in an all-round way.
The overall rise in real estate prices is an important manifestation of the real estate bubble.
From June 5438 to September 2004, the sales price of real estate in all parts of the country was rising, and the growth rate of sales price in some areas reached about 20%.
In terms of regions, there are six regions in the country where prices have increased by more than 20%.
In terms of cities, the house price in Hangzhou has risen from 3,000 yuan per square meter in 2000 to more than 5,500 yuan now; In the past three years, the house price in Fuzhou has risen from 2,000 yuan/square meter to 6,500 yuan/square meter.
From June 5438 to September 2004, the sales prices of all kinds of real estate in China rose rapidly, among which the transaction price of private houses rose the most, with the index reaching 1 15.2.
(4) The actual rent has decreased.
The real estate market as a whole can be divided into real estate sales market and rental market. Generally speaking, the rental market can accurately reflect the real consumer demand. When there is speculative demand in the real estate sales market, when the speculative demand in the sales market is strong, the demand in the rental market turns to the sales market while the supply increases greatly, which will lead to the decline of the rental price of real estate.
The rise of real estate rental price is lower than the price increase, which means that there is a bubble in the sales market, and the absolute decline of real estate rental price means that the sales market bubble is serious.
From June 5438 to September 2004, the growth rate of housing rental price was 2. 1%, which was much lower than the 5% increase of urban residents' consumer price, indicating that the actual rental price of housing was rapidly declining.
(5) Investors are very optimistic about the situation.
Investor optimism is the psychological basis for the growth of real estate price and demand bubbles, and the change of optimism is also a necessary and sufficient condition for the bubble to burst.
So far, developers in China are almost completely optimistic about the real estate market situation and oppose the real estate bubble.
At least before raising interest rates, many enthusiastic investors were very optimistic about the real estate situation, and investors in individual cities were almost crazy.
But rational outsiders hold a completely opposite or pessimistic attitude.
At the beginning of 2004 1 1, a survey conducted by AIA consultants showed that 74.9% of the respondents thought there was a bubble and 7.2% thought there was no bubble.
2. Demand performance: housing sales have increased substantially, mortgage loans have increased substantially, and domestic and foreign funds have entered in large quantities. (6) Abnormal growth in housing sales.
The growth rate of housing sales should be slightly higher than the growth rate of total social consumer goods. Excessive growth means that there is investment demand beyond real demand.
From June to September in 2003 and 2004, the growth rate of housing sales was much higher than the growth rate of total social consumer goods, reaching 27.2%-39.7%, which was 18. 1-28.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total social consumer goods.
1992- 1993 during the overheating period, the growth rate of housing sales reached 42%-56%, which was 25-27.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total social consumer goods.
This shows that there is a lot of speculative demand in the real estate sales market.
(7) Mortgage loan growth.
The real demand for real estate depends on the growth of family income, and the expansion of speculative demand for real estate mainly depends on the growth of housing mortgage loans.
Therefore, the ratio of housing mortgage loan growth to household disposable income growth reflects the development degree of real estate bubble from the perspective of demand. The greater the index value, the higher the degree of speculation.
In recent years, individual housing loans have grown rapidly. The balance of individual housing loans increased by 265,438+08.6%, 65,438+048.72%, 65.77%, 47.765, 438+0% and 42.46% respectively compared with 2003. The balance of housing mortgage loan in China has reached 654.38+0.2 trillion yuan, more than 50 times of 654.38+0.997, which is higher than the growth of household disposable income in the same period.
Because of the low base of housing mortgage loan, we can't simply draw the conclusion of market bubble based on the continuous growth of this index, but this growth is really extraordinary.
(8) Residents' savings declined rapidly.
The continuous decline in the growth rate of deposits may mean that residents begin to take money out of banks for consumption or investment in value-added products.
In February 2003, the proportion of residents' savings in total deposits was 53%, and it dropped to 49% in September 2004.
Since 2004, savings deposits have decreased for seven consecutive months. From June 5438 to August, savings deposits increased by1086.3 billion yuan, but decreased by140.6 billion yuan year-on-year.
(9) International hot money inflow.
A large amount of international hot money flowing into and investing in real estate will drive speculative demand.
At present, a large amount of international hot money enters China in various covert ways.
According to relevant calculations, among China's foreign exchange reserves of about $5 100 billion, the trade surplus is about $654,380+00 billion, the foreign direct investment is about $300 billion, and the remaining $654,380+00 billion is hot money, some of which flows into the real estate market.
According to some investigation reports of Beijing Daguan Real Estate Agency, in 2003, the number of European and American buyers in Beijing increased by 4.9 times, and the number of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan buyers increased by 2.5 to 3.5 times.
Overseas buyers accounted for nearly 15% of the total transaction.
(10) A large amount of private hot money flows in.
Private capital invested heavily in real estate, which created huge speculative demand and led to a sharp rise in house prices.
2001-In 2003, the folk real estate speculators in Zhejiang and other places, mainly Wenzhou, caused an uproar in the real estate market in China.
These collective property buyers were first in the local area, then entered Zhejiang and Shanghai, and then rushed to the whole country to concentrate on buying houses.
It is estimated that the number of people buying houses in Wenzhou is nearly 654.38+10,000, and the seed money for buying houses is about/kloc-0.00 billion yuan.
Real estate speculators instigated several times or even dozens of times of local funds to enter the property market, which stimulated local consumption in advance and speculative demand, which in turn led to the mutual promotion of demand and price, and the housing prices in many "real estate speculators" cities soared.
(1 1) Investment houses account for a high proportion.
The proportion of investment purchase funds to the total purchase funds is an important indicator to judge the real estate bubble.
The international early warning standard of this indicator is 10%.
According to the investigation of relevant departments, the proportion of investment houses in various places is increasing too fast at present.
For example, in Shanghai, overseas and foreign residential demand accounts for as much as 25% by area, investment residential accounts for 16.6%, and office buildings account for as much as 40%. The registered volume, area and balance of foreigners' house purchase contracts in Fuzhou accounted for 42.3%, 44.9% and 45.4% of the total in the same period respectively. Less than 50% of commercial housing owners in Hangzhou are locals.
3. Supply performance: abnormal growth of supply, too high housing vacancy rate (12) and abnormal growth of development investment.
Investment in real estate development is the most direct reflection of real estate supply to demand.
The extraordinary growth of development investment may mean the formation of speculative demand and price inflation.
The index to measure the growth rate of real estate development investment is the growth rate of real estate investment /GDP, which should generally not exceed 2 times.
In 2003, the total investment in real estate development in China exceeded 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, the largest increase since 1.995. From June to September, 2004, the investment in real estate development increased by 28.3% year-on-year, which was three times the GDP growth in the same period.
(13) The development loan has increased abnormally.
The growth of real estate development loans exceeds the growth rate of all loans, which may be a reflection of the profitability of bank funds to speculative demand.
From 2000 to 2002, the growth rates of real estate development loans were 1 1.8 1%, 32.96% and 27.78% respectively. On the basis of rapid growth for five consecutive years, the national real estate development loans reached 665.735 billion yuan in 2003, an increase of 4.91year-on-year.
From 2000 to 2003, the total loans increased by 6%, 65,438+03%, 65,438+07% and 265,438+0% respectively.
(14) The construction area has increased abnormally.
Building area is the future housing supply, and the growth of building area requires that there must be matching demand growth in the future.
In 2002, 2003 and 2004, the construction area increased by 20. 1%, 26% and 23.3% respectively. In 2002, 2003 and 2004, the sales area increased by 20.2%, 29. 1% and 19.3% respectively.
Even considering speculative demand, the growth of construction area exceeds the growth of sales area.
(15) The housing vacancy rate is too high.
Housing vacancy rate is the concentrated expression that the real estate supply exceeds the real demand, and the internationally recognized warning line is 10%.
In 2003, the national vacant housing area reached 654.38+0.25 billion square meters, and the vacancy rate reached 26%. At the end of September, 2004, although it decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, it still greatly exceeded the international warning line.
This decline may be caused by the growth of speculative demand.
Although housing vacancy rate is somewhat different from the international concept, the high vacancy rate in China reflects a deeper structural problem.
Four. Reasons (1) Scarcity of land First of all, the finiteness and scarcity of land are the basis of the real estate bubble.
Real estate is closely related to the vital interests of people, enterprises and institutions.
Home ownership is the most basic welfare requirement of a society, and people's requirements for living conditions are endless; The improvement of production conditions and office conditions related to the development of enterprises and institutions is also directly related to real estate.
Due to the limited land, people have been optimistic about the rise of real estate prices.
When the economic development is on the rise, the state's investment focuses on infrastructure and housing construction, which makes the supply of land resources very limited, leading many non-real estate enterprises and private investors to invest in real estate in order to obtain the benefits of rising prices, and real estate transactions are very hot.
In addition, people are optimistic about the economic prospects, and then use real estate mortgage to borrow money from banks to speculate in real estate, which makes its price soar.
(2) Speculative demand expansion Secondly, speculative demand expansion is the direct cause of the real estate bubble.
The demand for real estate for the purpose of speculation is related to the scarcity of land, that is, people buy houses not for living, but only for resale.
Once this kind of behavior becomes a group action, it is difficult to restrain, and the real estate bubble will follow.
(3) Repeated excessive lending. Excessive lending by financial institutions is the direct catalyst for the real estate bubble.
From the perspective of economics, price is the monetary expression of commodity value, and the abnormal rise and fall of price is definitely closely related to funds.
Because of its high value, whether the real estate bubble can appear depends on whether there is a lot of money in the market.
Therefore, financial support is a necessary condition for the formation of real estate bubble. Without the cooperation of banks and other financial institutions, there would be no real estate bubble.
Because real estate is real estate, it is easy to seal up, keep and sell, so the banking department thinks that this kind of loan is not risky. Driven by profits, banks are also very willing to issue loans based on real estate to real estate investors.
In addition, the banking sector will overestimate the value of collateral, thus strengthening the borrower's financing ability to invest in real estate, further aggravating the rise of real estate prices and industrial expansion.
Verb (the abbreviation of verb) harms (1) the existence of an unbalanced economic and social structure and a real estate bubble means that investing in real estate has a higher return on investment.
During this period, a large amount of funds gathered in the real estate industry and speculation was rampant.
During this period, many of the high profits of large enterprises came from the non-operating income brought by land speculation and stock speculation, which led to the lax management of this enterprise and the general decline of its quality.
In the period of rapid growth, enterprises expand equipment investment through indirect financing centered on bank loans.
After 1987, they all turned to equity financing and speculative land financing under the temptation of rising stock prices and land prices.
A large amount of funds flows to the real estate industry, which means that productive enterprises lack sufficient funds, or it is difficult to obtain the funds necessary for production at normal cost.
On the one hand, the increase of land price leads to the increase of investment budget, and it is unprofitable to invest in urban areas with high land price.
For example, for road construction in Tokyo, the cost of land acquisition is as high as 43.3% of the total cost and 99% of a single lot.
This has further caused the relative reduction of public investment and formed the bottleneck of economic development; On the other hand, due to the continuous rise of urban land price, land is kept in large quantities as the safest asset with the highest yield in people's minds, which makes a large number of scarce land idle or underutilized, and the tendency of land speculation is increasingly prominent.
At the same time, due to the rising real estate prices, the asset gap between real estate holders and non-real estate holders, and between metropolitan area and local area is getting wider and wider, which leads to new injustice in social distribution, seriously dampens the enthusiasm of workers and brings profound social problems.
(2) The close relationship between the real estate industry and banks in the financial crisis is mainly determined by the characteristics of large investment and high value of the real estate industry.
Some data show that about 20% ~ 30% of the funds invested by real estate development enterprises are bank loans; Construction companies often have to pay about 30% ~ 40% of the total project investment, and most of these funds are bank loans.
In addition, at least half of the buyers have applied for personal housing mortgage loans.
These items add up, and the funds obtained from banks for real estate projects are as high as 6 1%.
So once the real estate bubble burst, banks became the biggest buyers.
It should be noted that banks are different from ordinary enterprises, and security is particularly important for them.
The collapse of general productive enterprises is only related to themselves and shareholders, and has little influence on other subjects.
Bankruptcy is not only a bank's own business, but often leads to a chain reaction, which makes other banks face the risk of a run.
(3) Production and consumption crisis The bursting of the real estate bubble is often accompanied by economic depression, stock price decline, and the financial operation of enterprises is gradually in trouble.
The falling stock price makes a large number of convertible corporate bonds issued by enterprises unable to be converted into equity for a long time, thus bringing huge debt repayment burden to enterprises; In addition, the decline in land prices and stock prices has also caused enterprises to suffer huge asset appraisal losses and sales losses of land and stocks.
The decrease of enterprise income makes the investment insufficient, which not only reduces the investment level of research and development, but also reduces the investment of enterprises in equipment.
The decline of production leads to the deterioration of employment environment and the decline of residents' real income.
Business failure means a large number of unemployed employees, even if there is no business failure, due to the decline in income, will continue to lay off employees.
In addition, the decline in land prices also devalues the land assets held by individual residents.
Due to the economic recession and the decline of personal income level, residents are worried about the future to varying degrees, so they will reduce their current consumption and expand the savings part of their income to prevent accidents.
The shrinking of personal consumption has put the industrial sector that produces consumer goods in trouble.
(4) Triggering a political and social crisis With the bursting of the real estate bubble and the occurrence of the economic crisis, a large number of factories closed down and the number of unemployed people increased sharply.
Under the financial crisis, criminal cases have surged.
Take Malaysia as an example. 1997 After the real estate bubble burst, the crime rate in that year increased by 38% compared with 1996, and the crime rate in the first quarter of 1998 increased by 53%. Because people are dissatisfied with the worsening economic crisis, the social crisis is getting worse.
Social unrest is caused by the anti-government of workers and students.
The intransitive verb to prevent 1. Strengthen macro-control and management of the real estate market. Changes in the macroeconomic situation and policies will often cause a chain reaction of other factors, including national taxes, employment, residents' income, financial environment, corporate profits and so on.
The government's comprehensive monitoring of the macroeconomic situation and the formulation of appropriate policies are the primary measures to prevent the real estate bubble.
Real estate has the duality of assets and consumer goods. Because of this, the investment in the real estate market is very active. When the real estate bubble is easy to occur, it is necessary to strengthen the management of the real estate market.
First of all, we should strengthen the investment management of real estate construction, determine the investment scale according to the income level, so that the production and sales of real estate can basically adapt, and there will be no excessive backlog; Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen the management of the secondary real estate market to prevent excessive speculation in the property market and a sharp increase in the real estate bubble; Finally, adjust the structure of real estate development, vigorously develop residential real estate, and at the same time strengthen market statistics and forecasts, so that the real estate industry will become a real leading industry without bubbles.
2, the establishment of a unified national real estate market operation early warning and forecasting system, strengthen and improve the macro-monitoring system. Through the timely collection, collation and analysis of the national real estate market information, we should evaluate and predict the market operation, issue market analysis reports regularly, guide the market reasonably, and advise the government on macro-decision.
In recent years, China's real estate industry continues to grow at a relatively fast speed, attracting a large number of enterprises to invest in real estate.
Therefore, the state should speed up the establishment and improvement of the macro-control system of the real estate industry, and carry out necessary intervention and control through land supply, taxation, and improvement of pre-sale management, so as to effectively prevent the "bubble" of real estate.
3. Strengthening the management of land resources The government should control the unreasonable rise of commercial housing prices by regulating the supply of land resources.
In accordance with the requirements of the real estate market, we will maintain a reasonable land supply and the proportion of various types of land supply, earnestly implement the open tender system for land transfer, and control the excessive land prices in some cities.
We must resolutely stop the blind development and large-scale construction of high-grade residential buildings, and prevent the emergence of new backlogs and bubbles caused by runaway.
It is necessary to severely punish all kinds of violations, severely investigate and deal with illegal land occupation by real estate development enterprises, and avoid occupying and trading land without authorization in order to obtain temporary and short-term land benefits. The government should immediately recover any land that has not been developed within the prescribed time limit.
Comprehensively clean up the land market, resolutely crack down on developers' enclosure and land speculation, and prevent unhealthy practices and behaviors in the field of land leasing from the source.
4. Strengthen financial supervision and rationally guide the flow of funds. First of all, we should further improve the financial supervision system, increase supervision means, enhance supervision ability and improve supervision level; Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen the control of the total credit scale, so as not to make the total social credit excessively divorced from the requirements of the real economy and expand viciously, so as to prevent the occurrence of modernity from the source; Thirdly, it is necessary to strengthen the regulation of investment structure and guide the flow of funds to real economic sectors such as production and operation through interest rates and industrial policies; Finally, we should strengthen the management of foreign capital and foreign debt, introduce foreign direct investment and borrow long-term foreign debt as much as possible.
Most of the funds generated by the real estate bubble come from banks.
Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of banks and control speculative capital from the source.