The so-called stepping on lightning is a company that has encountered problems. How to identify such a company is the most important part of lightning protection. Since it is a mine, it is necessary to do a good job and hide it underground so that ordinary people can't see it. Only experienced investors have this ability, but some key clues can still be used for reference. This is one of them; The second is to plan ahead through the investment system, because mines are hard to prevent, so multiple filters are needed, such as learning Buffett's ability circle+moat+safety margin. Take a closer look at these concepts he said. Specifically, you can write a list of manuals to strengthen and eliminate them one by one:
Ability circle
1. The tracking time of this company: one year/five years/ten years;
2. Understanding of business model: easy/average/difficult;
3. Industry prospect: growth/maturity/cycle;
4. Why are you in your ability circle: work/study/life;
5. Company performance forecast: accurate/interval/inaccurate.
Urban moat
1. Industry status;
2. Technical level;
3. Brand effect;
4. User stickiness;
5. Internal evaluation;
6. Ability to raise prices.
safety margin
1. Possibility of bankruptcy;
2. Valuation level;
3. solvency;
4. Market prejudice;
5. System risk;
6. Technology trends.
Lightning protection skills
1. Past misconduct;
2. Executive cashing;
3. Accounts receivable;
4. Customer concentration;
5. Inventory backlog;
6. Impairment of goodwill;
7. Related party transactions;
8. Interest-bearing liabilities;
9. The amount pledged is too high.
The above only lists the analysis points and framework. If we can be aware of the above problems, then 90% of the mines in the market will be excluded. The specific steps are to be near first and then far, that is, to start from the ability circle and delete the stocks that are not easy to grasp and unfamiliar with one click; Then from easy to difficult, step by step to strengthen the study of the company's fundamentals, only to be a deep and wide moat enterprise; The existing one is to keep one hand, one is to control the position, and the other is to leave a safety margin on the price to prevent the risk of a sharp drop; Finally, it is a targeted analysis, mainly through the analysis of common financial indicators, to observe whether the company has the possibility of burying mines and whether it has used the above financial adjustment means.
In short, the best lightning protection method is familiarity, that is, the longer the tracking time and the more daily contact, the more accurate the understanding of the business and the more accurate the prediction of the company's future. You know, a good company is obvious, and you are too lazy to fake it. The so-called sentence is magnanimous, a petty man is anxious and worried.. !