According to the financial and credit data of the first five months released by the central bank, the monetary policy in May continued the loose tone in April, and the new social financing and new loans in that month were significantly higher than the same period last year. Considering the current downward inflation, insufficient effective demand and loose monetary policy as a whole, resources will be more inclined to "protect market players", especially to alleviate the plight of small and medium-sized enterprises, that is, the structural regulation characteristics of monetary policy will become more and more obvious. At the same time, the bond market has fluctuated obviously recently. Against the background of increasing bond supply and signs of economic recovery this year, the trend of bull and bear in the bond market has begun to appear. DR007 rose from the average of 1.46% in April to the average of 1.8% in early June, and the bond yield fluctuated greatly, which led to the sharp reduction of pledged repurchase by institutions and accelerated the deleveraging of the bond market. Related risks should also be further concerned.

New loans in the first five months have exceeded 10 trillion. How to forecast the annual liquidity? Has the bond market turned from bull to bear? How to adjust the bond market investment next? Will China's bond market become less attractive to foreign investors? What is the relationship between wide credit and wide money? Why not worry too much about the "sequelae" of this round of stimulus policies? Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD.COM Mathematics Department, is the chief countermeasure of CBN.

Shen Jianguang's main points:

In the first five months, new loans exceeded 10 trillion, indicating that the central bank is continuing to help the economy with extensive liquidity. Residents' medium and long-term loans have increased substantially, and now the real estate market is picking up. The bond market has fluctuated greatly recently and still has a high yield. China's bond market will not be less attractive to foreign investors, and there is still room for RMB exchange rate. The combination of wide currency and wide credit will continue for some time. On the basis of following the principle of marketization, this round of stimulus policies need not worry too much about the "sequela" problem.

CBN: Hello, Mr. Shen, thank you very much for accepting an exclusive interview with our chief countermeasure. Let's first look at the financial data released by the central bank for the first five months. New loans in the first five months have exceeded 10 trillion. What does this mean? What is our current liquidity situation?

In the first five months, new loans exceeded 65.438 billion yuan, which is the extensive liquidity of the central bank to help economic development.

Shen Jianguang: This means that the liquidity is very loose. We can see that the broad money still maintains 1 1. 1% this time, which is also the high point in four years and relatively high in recent years. Therefore, judging from the new loans of 10 trillion, five months 10 trillion is very high, and last year it was 16 trillion, 16 trillion. So what does this mean? It shows that in the process of fighting the epidemic, many enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, including enterprises, have actually invested huge liquidity, which is normal because the whole world is using monetary policy to rescue this enterprise on a large scale. In fact, in China, although we think it is still better than in the past, it is still relatively small compared with the world. In the case of global water release, the Bank of China has actually complied with the need to save the economy.

CBN: But we see some breakdown data. How do you understand corporate loans?

Real estate continues to pick up, and the increase in corporate bills shows signs of economic recovery.

Shen Jianguang: The number of residents (loans) is about 700 billion, an increase of more than 700 billion. Yes, the increase is more than 700 billion, and the enterprise is 800 billion. This time it's May, something like that. This is not normal either. General corporate loans will be a little more? Then it is very important that the ratio of residents' loans is 2: 1, which means that medium and long-term loans are much higher than short-term loans, and medium and long-term loans cost more than 400 billion yuan, so many of them go to real estate. So this must be mainly a mortgage. Residents' medium and long-term loans are generally mortgages, right? Therefore, it means that the real estate market is definitely picking up. Corporate loans are mainly in the medium and long term, and the bills mainly increased this time have also increased a lot. The bill means that the production of the enterprise is recovering, so it is very obvious from the macro data that our production recovery is still relatively good, but the demand recovery is relatively slow, and the demand is consumption, investment and export. In fact, at least from the data in April, exports have data in May, all of which are negative growth. So from this perspective, what we are facing now may be that China's economic supply exceeds demand.

First Finance: The economy is good or bad. It has a target data, which is the data of the current bond market. Recently, everyone is paying attention to the problem of relatively large fluctuations in the bond market. There are many opinions that it is a bull to bear now. Do you think so?

Supply-enhancing bond market shows great volatility.

Shen Jianguang: In the short term, the interest rate in the bond market will definitely rise, because on the one hand, we can see that China's economy is recovering, right? Production has begun to resume. The second one will issue a large amount of bonds. This time, the issuance of bonds will increase by 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of10.6 trillion over last year. Then there are special treasury bonds, and the supply of all bonds will increase substantially, which is also a factor. So after a sharp rise, its overall rate of return will have a corresponding impact, because it means an increase in supply, right? When the supply rises, the whole bond price will go down, the yield of the downward price will reverse, and the index opposite to the price will rise.

CBN: So we saw that not long ago, on June 8, the central bank withdrew 380 billion yuan in open market operations. Then, if the bond market fluctuated slightly before, it would indeed rebound, and it was rare for the central bank to announce the operation of MLF in advance, then what do you think the central bank's actions at that time meant?

The central bank supports the real economy in many ways.

Shen Jianguang: This is really difficult for the central bank. It has multiple difficulties. On the one hand, it needs to support the economy, so it releases a lot of liquidity, but on the other hand, it doesn't want to be called flood irrigation, which creates a problem. Another point is that we have released a lot of liquidity. What key central banks want most is that these liquidity will go to small and medium-sized enterprises, and small and medium-sized enterprises are the places that need funds most. Judging from the previous financial statements, the solvency of these SMEs is still relatively weak. If I assume that there is no income for three months, many 30% or 40% enterprises may not be able to bear the cost, rent or even interest, so they really need money. But how to lend it to SMEs? Banks are naturally reluctant to lend money to small and medium-sized enterprises because of the high risks. For example, the recent refinancing of 400 billion yuan is also particularly distinctive. He gave 400 billion yuan to small and medium-sized banks because this time it was different from before. This time, it was given to five categories: small and medium-sized banks, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, allowing them to contact small and medium-sized enterprises and let them lend to them. Then the central bank bought it, and after buying it, it was equivalent to giving it money as collateral. These loans are provided to it at zero interest rate. Because what we need most is the real economy, not supporting real estate and creating a real estate bubble.

CBN: There may be a bear market trend in the bond market. How to adjust the investment in the bond market?

China bond market is unlikely to be bullish again, but it still has a relatively high yield.

Shen Jianguang: I think the bond market actually fluctuates greatly, that is to say, from a macro perspective, there is no need to be particularly worried. In other words, even if the economy starts to recover in the second half of the year, I think the impact on the China bond market may not be so great. What is the reason? First of all, the yield of China's interest rate bond market is still much higher than that of other countries. Now overseas, in fact, I believe, the attraction to international bond investors is rising, because we still have such a high rate of return, and the whole world is losing money, but on the other hand, we are opening wider to the outside world, and the global demand is definitely much better than other countries. The rate of return, then China's next step, I think, depends largely on its openness. Globally, China's economy is still in a very favorable position, including the bond market. You said the yield was so high. Globally, our economic growth and production have resumed, while many countries are still in epidemic situations. So in many ways, in fact, if we look at it this way, as long as we keep the pace of reform and opening up, the economy may actually recover better in the second half of the year, so the bond market may not return to the bull market, but the decline may not be particularly severe.

CBN: But I did tell you that foreign capital is very attractive to our bond market, and our bond market is still very attractive to foreign capital, which may be due to poor advantages. Then, if the bonds are not stopped, will the attractiveness of this part of foreign capital be reduced?

The attractiveness of the bond market will not reduce the RMB exchange rate, and there is still room for improvement.

Shen Jianguang: From the fact that its foreign capital needs to be allocated globally, you can see that other countries have negative interest rates and zero interest rates. Even though its price may fall in the short term, for him, part of its allocation needs will still be used for investment. So, of course, for now, on the one hand, bond investors generally consider your long-term economic situation, the yield is obviously high, and the exchange rate situation. The exchange rate fluctuated in the short term, and the RMB has now fallen by more than 7%, but it depends on the factors of exporting to the world in the second half of the year. Maybe the RMB is about the same? Is it basically the lowest in recent years? If the RMB has the possibility of further appreciation, it will be more attractive to global investors. Because if China's economy recovers in the second half of the year, it will definitely be good for the RMB.

CBN: So the 400 billion refinancing you mentioned is a broad credit problem. Now let's look at the relationship between wide credit and wide liquidity and wide currency.

The combination of wide currency and wide credit will continue to be maintained for some time.

Shen Jianguang: Looking at it now, it is obvious that it is wide, wide currency and wide credit. Then, of course, I think this is beyond doubt and understandable, because the current stage is actually the recovery stage that has just begun after the epidemic. Now I really don't know what is the driving force for restoring economic growth after the epidemic. It is supposed to be slower than expected. We saw that the export data in May was negative 3.3%, which was not good for our recovery. One more thing, our data haven't come out yet. Come back in April. Our retail sales still fell by 7.5%, consumption did not fully recover, and investment fell even more. The investment from June to April is negative 10%. Therefore, from the perspective of the national economy as a whole, it is definitely necessary to maintain a wide credit and a wide currency.

CBN: As you mentioned, we may have many stimulus policies, fiscal policies or monetary policies this time. This stimulus policy is very strong, but compared with 4 trillion yuan, we don't have to be too afraid of its sequelae this time. How can we understand it?

The stimulus policy should follow the principle of marketization.

Shen Jianguang: First of all, the first point is that at this stage, it is urgent. You need help, which means you are equal to the six guarantees we talked about, right? The Central Committee has made it very clear that in order to guarantee the six guarantees, it is very important to ensure employment, but it is also very important to protect market players. If all the enterprises go bankrupt, there will be no employment, right? We must also protect people's livelihood. These mean that you are now in the insurance stage, and at this time you must carry out fiscal and monetary stimulus. At this time, you can find that we want to stimulate the economy, but we have not invested in any specific industries. To a large extent, the state also made it very clear that investment in new industries and digital industries still depends on enterprises and the power of the market. But, of course, I think there is another very important point. I think at the time of 4 trillion yuan, everyone criticized a lot of infrastructure investment, especially high-speed rail. I remember that the high-speed rail was definitely ahead of schedule and the benefits were definitely not high. I will lose money in the future, but now it seems that the spillover effect of high-speed rail has played a great role in pulling the overall economy, especially in promoting e-commerce in the new logistics economy. So from this perspective, let's reflect again. Now we may also make some advanced investments, that is, you will build many data centers in the digital economy. In this way, it is true that many domestic enterprises are online now, and they are leading in the world. Indeed, from this perspective, I think the driving force of our economic recovery is a digital economy, which turns the economy into the next generation, that is, the fourth industrial revolution, which is driven by digital economic data. This is actually leading the future, not to say that many people are afraid to take the old road. What are they afraid of? We take the old road and invest in industries with overcapacity in Gong Ji, but I think we can learn a lesson as long as we can control them well and let enterprises lead the investment in these emerging industries according to market principles.

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