P2P came into being in the era of financial liberalization, interest rate marketization entering the deep water area and the vigorous development of the Internet, and it came into being under the influence of the oversight of financial innovation by the regulatory authorities and the onlineization of private lending. As a supplement to traditional finance and a form of private lending, P2P is theoretically beneficial to long-tail customers neglected by traditional financial institutions such as banks. However, from the very beginning, P2P deviated from the position of pure information intermediary, collective credit was mediated, and investors were generally paid rigidly. Once bad debts exceed expectations, the end result is bankruptcy or running away. Even more deadly, the funds absorbed by P2P mainly come from the public, resulting in hundreds of billions of money holes to be borne by investors, and even some investors have a vicious incident due to excessive losses.
Although P2P has been cleaned up, the lessons left are worth learning seriously. At present, the booming cash loan industry in recent years is similar to it, and both belong to financial innovation in the Internet era. 165438+ Ant Group, whose listing was suspended at the beginning of October, accounts for more than 60% of its business. It is a cash loan based on loans and flower beds, with a scale of 2 trillion yuan, which is also the imagination of ants, and its valuation once reached 2 trillion yuan.
Don't stop the comparison between the two. In terms of lending objects, P2P is mainly for small and micro enterprises and individuals, while cash loans are mainly for individuals, all of whom are long-tailed customers with poor credit status and ignored by banks. In the direction of funding sources, cash loans mainly come from traditional financial institutions represented by banks, while P2P is an individual. It seems that the former has strong anti-risk ability, but once a large area of bad debts occurs, it may lead to systemic financial risks.
Moreover, it should be pointed out that cash loans are mainly aimed at young people with lower incomes. They generally have low self-control and are easily influenced by consumerism. Once they successfully realize their desire for consumption through borrowing, they are likely to fall into a vicious circle of endless borrowing and repayment. According to an institutional survey, nearly half of the people who use consumer loans in China are post-90s, ranking first among their peers in Asia. Although the path and purpose of loans are different, the result is the same: either it is humiliating and time-consuming to repay high-interest loans, or borrowing money everywhere is robbing Peter to pay Paul, leading to personal credit bankruptcy and parents and relatives taking over.
This can be seen from the interest on cash loans. In a report released by CMB International Securities in August this year, the annual interest rates of Internet giants such as Ant Financial, JD.COM, Du Xiaoman and Weizhong Bank ranged from 18% to 24%, covering about 240 million borrowers. The annual interest rates of online lending platforms such as 360 Finance, Lexin and Fun Shop range from 24% to 36%, covering about 430 million borrowers; The annual interest rate of the cash lending platform for P2P transformation is greater than 36%.
It is conceivable that in the face of such high-interest loans, once they are not tempted by consumerism for the time being, young people with low self-control may roll in the abyss. The traditional society in China advocates frugality, and excessive consumption and overdraft credit are obviously unfavorable to society, which is absolutely not advocated and should be highly valued.
Therefore, in view of the vigorous development of the cash loan industry, the regulatory authorities must take action, although it should not be "killed with one stick". After all, as a financial innovation, cash loan has its merits, but it must be put on a "tight spell" to regulate development and prevent financial risks.
In August this year, the Supreme People's Court set a new upper limit for judicial protection of private lending interest rate, which is four times the latest one-year loan market quotation rate (LPR). According to1LPR 165438+3.85% published on October 20th, the highest interest rate of private lending is 15.4%, which is significantly lower than the previous 24% and 36%. 165438+1At the beginning of October, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China, together with the central bank, drafted a new regulation on small loans, which made clear requirements on several key issues, such as institutional access and leverage ratio, and stipulated that in a single joint loan, the proportion of small loan companies operating online small loan business should not be less than 30%. Take Ant Group as an example. Based on the loan scale of 2 trillion yuan, the capital to be supplemented will reach 1000 billion yuan.
I believe that the regulatory authorities have seen the risks of cash loans, and hope that a series of regulatory measures can be truly implemented, so that the cash loan industry can develop in a standardized way, realize financial innovation without affecting financial security, and do not follow the old path of P2P industry.
(The author is the first financial commentator)