At the beginning of 2020, a sudden new coronavirus swept the country. While posing a great threat to people's health, it also has an unprecedented impact on China's economic development. Take the automobile industry as an example. After a difficult 2019, the automobile market thought there would be changes in 2020, but the epidemic seemed to have dashed all hopes.

According to the statistics of key enterprise groups of the China Automobile Association, automobile production and sales are expected to complete 1.783 million units and 1.941 million units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 33.5 and 27.0 respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6 and 18.0.

The opening of the new year's auto market suffered a setback

As can be seen from the 2020 automobile production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, the impact of the epidemic on the auto market can be described as comprehensive: First, passenger cars Production and sales are expected to be 1.444 million vehicles and 1.614 million vehicles respectively, down 33.9 and 27.1% month-on-month, and 27.6% and 20.2% year-on-year respectively.

Secondly, commercial vehicle production and sales are expected to complete 341,000 units and 326,000 units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 31.4 and 26.7 respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 and 5.7 respectively.

In addition, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in January 2020 are expected to be 40,000 and 44,000 units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 55.4 and 54.4 respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars are expected to be 35,000 and 39,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 56.3 and 54.5 respectively; the production and sales of commercial vehicles are expected to be 5,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.4 and 51.7 respectively.

The production, supply and marketing chain faces a big test

In fact, in addition to disrupting the traditional expectation of booming consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic has also had an obvious impact on automobile production capacity and end markets in the first half of the year. of.

According to the analysis of the China Automobile Association, in addition to causing a significant short-term decline in car purchase demand and consumption capacity, the epidemic also poses a great threat to corporate production progress, corporate exports, and the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises.

First of all, the current anti-epidemic actions have reduced consumers’ car purchasing behavior in the short term and seriously affected car sales. However, this impact is short-lived and will improve as the epidemic eases.

Secondly, due to the epidemic, various parts of the country have issued notices delaying the resumption of work, which has a great impact on automobile production capacity and supporting factories. According to the China Automobile Association's survey of more than 300 vehicle and parts companies, delayed resumption of work has resulted in companies operating an average of 7-11 days less than in previous years (longer in Hubei). Calculated based on the 10 days less business operation, and the short-term inability of personnel and industrial chain supply to meet production needs after the resumption of work, it is expected that the industry output will be affected by more than one million vehicles.

Furthermore, it also has a great impact on foreign exports. Due to the impact of the epidemic, some countries and companies have refused to accept ordered goods and have also made decisions to cancel original orders on the grounds of preventing the spread of the epidemic. According to incomplete statistics, more than 60 countries have issued entry control measures against my country, which has hindered Chinese automobile companies from exploring overseas markets and made it more difficult to export automobiles and parts.

In addition, due to the delay in resumption of work, the production and operations of automobile companies have been suspended, and their income and cash flow have been interrupted; however, rent, wages, interest and other expenses still need to be paid, which greatly tests the financial strength of the company.

According to the China Automobile Association’s survey of industry companies, parts and components companies are more affected. At the same time, business interruptions may lead to defaults on order contracts, exacerbating difficulties in capital turnover, and some small and medium-sized enterprises (mainly parts companies) that are smaller in size and have weak anti-risk capabilities will face bankruptcy.

Preparing for war, preparing for farming, and preparing to resume production

Faced with the outbreak of the epidemic, car companies did not give up and carried out various self-rescue efforts. In addition to switching to production of masks to prepare for the resumption of work for internal employees, some car companies also support supporting suppliers and terminal 4S stores as a quasi-preparation reserve for epidemic prevention before starting work.

In addition, the recent economic security policies that have been rapidly introduced by various local governments will also effectively reduce the burden on enterprises, help enterprises to get out of difficulties as soon as possible to a certain extent, and promote the gradual improvement of various industries.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have also recently required all localities and departments to promptly coordinate and solve the difficulties and problems of enterprises, promote the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner, and resume normal production as soon as possible.

Judging from the information disclosed by the China Automobile Association, companies are currently doing their best to promote the resumption of work and production. Among the 183 vehicle production bases that have reported their resumption plans to the association, as of February 12, there have been 59 bases have resumed work and production, accounting for 32.2%.

In addition, judging from the current development of the epidemic, the number of newly confirmed cases in other provinces and cities across the country except Hubei Province has shown a downward trend for many days. As the fight against the epidemic further intensifies, winning the battle against the new coronavirus is within reach.

Red Dot Observation:

Interpreting the 2020 automobile production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, the editor’s biggest feeling is: “The future is bright, but the road is tortuous”—— We must not only face up to the current difficulties, but also be confident in the future.

First of all, the domestic auto market was not optimistic in the first half of the year due to the impact of the epidemic. Whether it is OEM production capacity, parts supply chain system supply, or consumer confidence, it will be difficult to return to normal in a short period of time. It can also be said: Although the data in January is not good-looking, the industry data in February may be even more disastrous.

Secondly, the epidemic spreading across the country has not affected consumers’ rigid demand for private cars. On the contrary, during this epidemic, the advantages of fast and convenient family cars, which can provide users and their families with safe travel at critical moments, have been further amplified. From this, it can be predicted that the private car market will also usher in a small sales climax after the epidemic is over.

To sum up: Automobile production and sales in the first half of the year are not a problem with market supply and demand, but an inevitable choice to cooperate in winning the epidemic prevention war. The epidemic will not stop spring from arriving as scheduled and people's yearning for a happy life.

The compression of production and sales caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year will be fully released in the second half of the year, and the market rebound will surely become the biggest bright spot after the epidemic.

Of course, this epidemic is tantamount to "the straw that breaks the camel's back" for some brand car companies with weak ability to resist risks. In the knockout competition, only the companies that can persist to the end will usher in the dawn.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.