According to industry insiders, since the second half of 2020, the real estate market in some key cities has continued to be hot. The reason is that some funds that should not have flowed into the property market have flowed into the property market, and speculation has pushed up the market. In the future, with the tightening of regulation, the signs of speculative real estate speculation and speculation will be significantly reduced, and the real estate market in key cities will be significantly cooled down.
The strong supervision of real estate finance in many places is heating up.
"Recently, the supervision of banks on' operating loans' has been significantly tightened." Li Xi (not her real name) told reporters that she wanted to buy a second apartment in Beijing with the help of a "commercial loan" before, but she just met with strict supervision after consulting the intermediary.
A few days ago, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places issued documents to investigate the risks of operating loans and personal consumption loans of banks within their jurisdiction and strengthen the management of the use of credit funds. At the same time, a number of banks have also started self-examination, and the review of related loans is more stringent.
The Beijing Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau and the Business Management Department of the People's Bank of China recently issued the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Personal Business Loans to Prevent Credit Funds from Illegally Flowing into the Real Estate Market. The notice shows that the regulatory authorities will further strengthen off-site monitoring and on-site inspection in combination with big data supervision, and will severely investigate and deal with the illegal flow of personal business loans into the real estate market due to careless credit management.
A person from a Beijing branch of a state-owned bank also told reporters that the investigation of personal business loans had been organized for the first time, and the branches within its jurisdiction had been deployed and mobilized through conference calls. In the investigation, the big data model is used to screen suspicious data and investigate suspicious clues.
The Shanghai Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau has also issued regulatory documents before, and it is necessary to effectively strengthen the management of the use of credit funds, attach great importance to the control of the use of credit funds, and strengthen the use of early warning; It is forbidden to issue loans with no use, false use or suspicious use; Prevent consumer loans, commercial loans and other credit funds from being illegally diverted to the real estate sector.
Guangdong Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau recently issued the Notice on Organizing Banking Institutions within its jurisdiction to Carry out Risk Investigation of Operating Loans and Personal Consumption Loans, requiring banking institutions within its jurisdiction to strictly implement the main responsibilities and conduct all-round risk investigation around credit investigation, credit approval, post-loan management and business cooperation of third-party institutions.
At present, Guangdong's mortgage compliance spot check has become stricter, and the internal approval of banks has become stricter. The mortgage situation with income and age mismatch is also under review. Mr. Huang, a real estate agent manager in Guangdong, said that the bank randomly selected customers who bought houses and asked them to explain the source of the down payment. It is reported that the buyer has just graduated and is only 23 years old. "The purchase price is given by parents. We have also issued relevant certificates and guarantees for this situation, proving that the property is used by buyers for self-occupation. " According to the introduction of real estate agents, if property buyers choose operating loans to purchase houses, there is a high probability that they need to repay in advance after the non-compliance problems are exposed.
However, the bank also said that under the background of stricter audit, normal personal business loans will not be affected. A person from Shanghai Branch of a joint-stock bank said that in the field of personal business loans, the bank supports the development of the real economy and the relevant personal business loans are accepted normally.
The chaos of "good fortune and bad thoughts" involving housing funds needs to be strictly investigated.
Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said in an interview that it is difficult for banks to effectively monitor the flow of loans because consumer loans and commercial loans do not specify the purpose of loans. In 2020, due to the relaxed financing environment and the downward interest rate, some people have the impulse to use consumer loans, commercial loans and other funds to buy real estate.
Taking "operating loans" as an example, it is understood that in 2020, the mortgage interest rates of many banks will fall below 4%, and some high-quality enterprises can even get interest rates as low as 3.65%. Compared with the mortgage interest rate in Beijing during the same period, the "spread" is intuitive, and the loan can be repaid first. The "operating loan" itself is to support the entrepreneurial development of small and micro enterprises, but it is a "good idea" that some funds illegally flow into the property market through the "operating loan".
Zheng Dayuan, general manager of Guangzhou Dayuan Mortgage Agency Service Co., Ltd. said that the operating loan for 3-5 years, because interest comes first, provides a "time lag" for real estate speculators-as long as the house is sold within 3-5 years, there is no pressure to repay the principal. At the same time, there is the possibility of applying for a second business loan. According to the intermediary agencies that handle mortgage loans in Guangzhou, there is still room for applying for commercial loans or other similar loans for the second time. With the help of bridge funds, you can complete the first loan repayment and apply to the bank again. If the strict supervision leads to strict loan approval conditions and further tightening of the quota, some buyers are likely to face the risk of debt default.
In addition to operating loans, consumer loans have also become an important source of funds for some buyers to increase leverage. Earlier, the reporter learned in the interview that some loan intermediaries knew that the purpose of customers' funds was to buy a house, but they still said that they could help them lend consumer loans from banks. A loan intermediary told reporters that if the amount of a single consumer loan is not enough, you can borrow from several banks at the same time.
Ceng Gang said that the supervision of related party transactions should be strengthened. Zheng Dayuan also believes that illegal funds flowing into real estate should be openly and seriously investigated to reduce rent-seeking space.
Whether regulation will cool the market remains to be seen.
In addition to strictly checking the illegal entry of operating loans, consumer loans and other funds into the property market, many places have also introduced other measures to control the entry of funds into the market. On February 8, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau released the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in 3,595 residential quarters in the city. It is reported that several banks, such as Shenzhen Construction Bank and China Everbright, have started to use the above-mentioned transaction reference price as the reference basis for their mortgages. "The reference prices issued by the housing and construction department a few days ago are basically about 70% of the real selling price, which means that the loan amount that banks can issue will be greatly reduced, effectively reducing the leverage of buyers to buy houses." An industry insider said.
Hangzhou also strictly investigated the act of "freezing funds on behalf of others". On February 18, Hangzhou issued a circular on the personnel who provided false registration materials for purchasing houses. The circular said that after comparing and screening the registration information of commercial housing projects, it was found that the application information or registration materials of 27 families in 9 projects, including Yuchao House, Fengdan Four Seasons Courtyard, Mingjun House and Zizhantai Apartment, were false and inaccurate.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the effect of the next step of regulation depends on the implementation of the policy of strictly checking the illegal entry of funds into the housing market.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, also believes that the strict investigation of operating loans flowing into the property market by the regulatory authorities reflects the strong regulatory signal of real estate finance. This will prompt some commercial banks and intermediaries to examine credit more strictly. Yan Yuejin believes that for some people who want to buy a house with commercial loans, the operating space will be reduced. Objectively, it will cool down the real estate market, especially some hot projects. He said that the implementation of "housing without speculation", capital control must be in place, so that the real estate market will be more stable.
Zhao Yiqi, assistant researcher of Yiju Research Institute, said that under the control of many parties, it is expected that the heat of the property market will be lowered in the next few months, and the price increase will remain low.