Financial crisis, also known as financial crisis, refers to all or most of the financial indicators (such as: short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land prices, number of commercial bankruptcies) in a country or several countries and regions. and the number of bankruptcies of financial institutions).
Financial crises can be divided into currency crises, debt crises, banking crises and other types. Financial crises in recent years have increasingly taken on some form of hybrid crisis.
It is characterized by people’s expectations that the economy will be more pessimistic in the future. The currency value of the entire region has depreciated significantly, the total economic volume and economic scale have suffered greater losses, and economic growth has been hit. It is often accompanied by the collapse of a large number of companies, increased unemployment, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or turmoil at the national political level. Regarding the issue of the Asian financial crisis that shocked the world, Zhu Rongji firmly stated on many important occasions that "the RMB will not depreciate and will not increase the crises and difficulties of other Asian countries and regions." "We belong to Asia. We are all in the same boat and we will never take advantage of others' difficulties." The image of the Chinese government represented by Zhu Rongji has won the respect and praise of the international community. Media at home and abroad generally believe that Zhu Rongji led the Chinese people out of the predicament in the tide of economic reform. The best person to move towards the light. (The above content is excerpted from "On the Linguistic Characteristics of Zhu Rongji's Speeches", Issue 10, 1998, of "Applied Writing" magazine)
[Edit this paragraph] The evolution of the U.S. financial crisis has gone through three stages
The Wall Street storm caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development of this process, the large number, and the huge impact can be said to be unexpected by people. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: The first is the debt crisis, which is the problem caused by the inability to repay the principal and interest on time after borrowing a housing loan. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Due to the debt crisis, some financial institutions are unable to have sufficient liquidity in a timely manner to meet the liquidity requirements of creditors. The third stage is the credit crisis. That is to say, people have doubts about their financial activities based on credit, causing such a crisis.
[Edit this paragraph] Financial crisis events
On March 18, 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the overnight lending rate of commercial banks from 3.0 to 2.25. On March 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve It was decided to lower the discount rate from 3.5 to 3.25.
On January 31, 2008, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the basic interest rate would be reduced by 50 basis points to 4.5.
On January 29, 2008, the Federal Reserve’s commercial bank overnight lending rate dropped from 3.5 to 3.0.
On January 29, 2008, the Federal Reserve provided $30 billion to commercial banks through a loan auction.
On January 24, 2008, Morgan Stanley said it would lay off about 1,000 employees within a week; Bank of America and Wachovia Bank announced that their fourth-quarter profit declines in 2007 were as high as 95% and 98% respectively.
On January 22, 2008, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to 3.5.
On October 5, 2007, the Dow Jones Index and the S&P Index both hit record highs during the session, and the latter also set a record high closing point.
On September 21, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $3 billion in temporary reserves into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.
On September 19, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected US$9.75 billion in temporary reserves into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, lowering the overnight lending rate between commercial banks to 4.75.
On September 14, 2007, U.S. mortgage interest rates dropped to the lowest level in four months.
On September 12, 2007, Citigroup provided US$214 to support financial company GMAC; the European Central Bank once again injected 75 billion euros into the banking system.
On September 6, 2007, the European Central Bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate of the Eurozone unchanged at 4; the Bank of England announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75.
On September 6, 2007, the British interbank interest rate rose sharply in recent days and reached the highest level in the past nine years.
On September 5, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $8.5 billion in temporary reserves into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.
On September 4, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected US$5 billion in temporary reserves into the banking system through a two-day repurchase agreement; the U.S. manufacturing activity index fell to the lowest level in nearly five months in August.
On August 31, 2007, Barclays borrowed approximately 1.6 billion pounds from the Bank of England's emergency reserves for the second time; Ameriquest, a major U.S. subprime mortgage company, no longer accepts new mortgage loan applications.
On August 31, 2007, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) reduced the number of employees in its investment banking department responsible for the US market.
On August 30, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another US$10 billion into the financial system; the Bank of England issued a loan of 1.6 billion pounds at a punitive interest rate of 6.75.
On August 29, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $5.25 billion into the financial system; Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke wrote to the U.S. Congress, suggesting that Congress try to help borrowers in the subprime housing mortgage market.
On August 29, 2007, the share prices of Bear Stearns, Citigroup and Lehman Brothers all plummeted; in the second quarter, the U.S. house price index experienced its largest decline in 20 years.
On August 28, 2007, the US consumer credit card default rate increased significantly by 30% year-on-year; investors sold Southeast Asian bank stocks, and Citigroup lowered its year-end target for the Straits Times Index.
On August 28, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $9.5 billion into the financial system; the profit forecast of Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage company, was lowered by Lehman Brothers; Goldman Sachs lowered its investment in Bell Third-quarter profit forecasts from Stern, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley.
On August 27, 2007, China Construction Bank stated that it held US$1.06 billion in U.S. subprime mortgage-backed securities and had withdrawn RMB 139 million in loss provisions for investment in mortgage-backed securities.
On August 24, 2007, the Bank of Japan withdrew 300 billion yen from the financial market; the Federal Reserve injected US$17.25 billion into the financial system.
On August 23, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another US$7 billion into the financial system; the European Central Bank injected another 40 billion euros into the financial system; Lehman Brothers closed its mortgage subsidiary; the four major U.S. banks withdrawn funds from the Federal Reserve $2 billion in borrowed funds from the discount window.
On August 23, 2007, most major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rose; ICBC and Bank of China successively released semi-annual reports. The former held US$1.229 billion in subprime credit-related bonds, and the latter held more than 90 billion US dollars in such assets. billion dollars.
On August 22, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another US$2 billion into the financial system.
On August 21, 2007, the Bank of Japan announced that it would inject another 800 billion yen into banks; the Federal Reserve injected another US$3.75 billion into the financial system; Nationwide Financial Corporation confirmed that it had laid off 500 employees in its mortgage business department of employees.
On August 20, 2007, the Bank of Japan injected 1 trillion yen into the banking system, and the Federal Reserve injected another US$3.5 billion into the financial system. The Japanese stock market rose sharply.
On August 18, 2007, the Federal Reserve lowered the discount rate, and the New York stock market rebounded sharply; the German stock market also surged due to the Federal Reserve lowering the discount rate.
On August 17, 2007, European and American stock markets narrowed their declines, while Japanese and emerging market stock markets continued to fall. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index once fell below 20,000 points, the state-owned enterprise index once fell by more than 10 points, and the Federal Reserve lowered the rediscount rate by 0.5 percentage points to 5.75.
On August 17, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $17 billion into the financial system; Nationwide Financial Corporation, the largest commercial mortgage company in the United States, faced bankruptcy; global stock markets plummeted again.
On August 16, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another US$7 billion into the financial system; global stock markets plummeted. The stock market declines in Japan and emerging markets far exceeded that of European and American markets.
On August 15, 2007, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve considered a currency swap arrangement; the European Central Bank injected more than 210 billion euros into the Eurozone banking system; U.S. banks began to refuse to use subprime credit as collateral Grant loans.
On August 14, 2007, the three major central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan once again injected more than 72 billion US dollars to rescue the market; the Asia-Pacific central bank again injected capital into the banking system.
On August 11, 2007, central banks around the world injected over US$326.2 billion to rescue the market within 48 hours; the Federal Reserve injected US$38 billion into the banking system three times a day.
From August 9 to 10, 2007, the central banks of Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan and other countries successively injected US$302.3 billion into the global economy.
In August 2007, Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China were involved in the "U.S. subprime mortgage crisis."
In August 2007, Countrywide, the largest mortgage company in the United States, stated that the storm in the subprime mortgage market had begun to affect high-quality mortgage loans.
In July 2007, S&P and Moody's issued warnings on more than $17 billion in bonds backed by risky mortgages.
In July 2007, funds owned by Macquarie Bank in Australia suffered losses in the subprime mortgage credit market.
In July 2007, American HomeMortgage Investment closed its doors.
In June 2007, two hedge funds owned by Bear Stearns suffered heavy losses due to their investments in the subprime mortgage market.
In April 2007, risks emerged in the subprime mortgage credit market - starting with New Century Mortgage Company's filing for bankruptcy protection.
[Edit this paragraph] The international financial crisis contagion mechanism has new characteristics:
The financial crisis caused by external factors and the international contagion of financial crisis are not phenomena that have only appeared in recent years. In 1873, the economies of Germany and Austria were prosperous, attracting capital to stay in the country, and foreign credit was suddenly suspended, causing operating difficulties for the American Jay Cooke Company. In 1890, the Baring Brothers Investment Bank in London had a payment crisis on Argentina's claims, and in October of that year, New York The financial crisis occurred and a series of businesses in London collapsed. Barings Bank almost collapsed in November of that year. It was only saved by the syndicated guarantee fund rescue organized by William Liderdale, the governor of the Bank of England. However, the UK's financial support to South Africa, Australia, Loans to the United States and other Latin American countries dropped sharply as a result of this incident, causing the economic crisis in the above-mentioned countries and regions to last until 1893. In the spring of 1928, the New York stock market began to boom, draining away the sources of credit that could have been invested in Germany and Latin America. This has caused the above-mentioned countries and regions to fall into economic depression. The suspension of overseas credit is likely to accelerate overseas economic recession, which will in turn affect the countries that caused it all. In the 1990s, with the expansion of international hot money, international monetary and financial crises broke out frequently. According to a study completed by Barry Eichengreen and Michael Bordo in 2001, the probability of a financial crisis in a randomly selected country is now The probability is twice as high as in 1973, and international monetary and financial crises are also much more contagious. They often spread from the country or region where the crisis first broke out to other countries and regions soon like an infectious disease. The public opinion circle has left many words to describe this phenomenon: the "tequila effect" of the Mexican crisis in 1994, "Asian flu", "Russian virus", etc., and the contagion mechanism of currency and financial crises. Research is also booming.
Since various crisis contagion mechanisms can only be realized under the conditions of capital account and financial market openness, to a large extent, our country relied on moderate controls on capital accounts and low openness of the financial services market to survive the 1997 Asian financial crisis. , but today, with the changes in our country's economic and financial situation, although our country's capital account has not yet been fully opened, the risk of crisis contagion has greatly increased. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis that shocked the international financial market has sounded the alarm for us, indicating that the international The financial crisis contagion mechanism has new characteristics.
In the broad sense, the international contagion channels of monetary and financial crises can be divided into two categories: non-accidental contagion channels and episodic contagion channels. The former refers to the channels that exist in both the stable period and the crisis period before the crisis. Channels of infection; the latter refers to channels of infection that only appear after the outbreak of a crisis. Since the first type of contagion channel originates from actual economic and financial connections between countries or regions, the contagion of the crisis comes from changes in macroeconomic fundamentals, so it is also called "real contact channel" or "contagion based on fundamentals", which mainly includes Trade links and competitive devaluation, policy adjustments, stochastic aggregate demand liquidity shocks, etc. Sporadic contagion has nothing to do with economic fundamentals. It is just the result of the behavior of investors or other participants in the financial market (especially irrational behavior). Therefore, it is also known as "real contagion" and "pure contagion". It mainly includes: Liquidity shocks, multiple equilibrium and awakening effects, and political influence contagion can occur through various channels. However, these contagion mechanisms are often based on trade links and investments from “center” countries to “periphery” countries. They are caused by institutional investors from developed countries abandoning emerging market assets and pursuing high-quality assets in their home countries. As for the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on China, the role of trade links and foreign investment mechanisms in China may not be very critical. On the contrary, China's overseas investment and the overseas listing of Chinese companies may become the main channels for crisis contagion, and The importance of such crisis transmission routes will continue to increase.
[Edit this paragraph] Why did the financial crisis occur
The current financial crisis was caused by the bubble in the U.S. housing market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that occurred every four to 10 years after the end of World War II.
However, there are fundamental differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion that was based on the dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of larger boom-bust processes. The current financial crisis is the culmination of a super-boom cycle that has lasted for more than 60 years.
Boom-bust cycles often revolve around credit conditions, and always involve a bias or misunderstanding. This is often a failure to recognize that there is a reflexive, circular relationship between willingness to lend and the value of collateral. When credit is easily available, it creates demand, and this demand drives up property values; this, in turn, increases the amount of credit available. Bubbles occur when people buy properties with the expectation of profiting from refinancing their mortgages. The boom in the U.S. housing market in recent years is evidence of this. The super-prosperity that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.
Whenever credit expansion encounters trouble, financial authorities have taken intervention measures to inject liquidity (into the market) and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This creates an asymmetric incentive system, also known as moral hazard, which drives increasingly strong credit expansion. The system was so successful that people began to believe in what former US President Ronald Reagan called the "magic of the market"—what I call "market fundamentalism." Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to balance and that allowing market participants to pursue their own interests will best serve the interests of the community. This is clearly a misunderstanding, since it was not the markets themselves that saved financial markets from collapse, but rather the intervention of the authorities.
However, market fundamentalism became the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when financial markets first began to globalize and the United States began running current account deficits.
Globalization allows the United States to absorb the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produces. In 2006, the U.S. current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Financial markets encourage consumers to borrow by introducing increasingly sophisticated products and more generous terms. Whenever the global financial system faces danger, financial authorities intervene and contribute to the situation. Since 1980, regulation has been continuously relaxed, even to the point where it exists in name only.
The subprime mortgage crisis has caused financial institutions in developed countries to re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds in developed countries will reverse their flow and return to strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. This will lead to a sharp decline in securities market prices, depreciation of local currencies, decline in investment scale, slowdown in economic growth and even recession in emerging market countries. Among them, the three Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will put pressure on China's economic growth, but Chinese funds also face a good opportunity to "go out" to integrate and acquire corresponding companies.
[Edit this paragraph] How to solve the financial crisis
If China only imports oil to achieve RMB appreciation, it would be better to directly use foreign currency savings to subsidize oil.
If China wants to carry out structural governance, it must first clean up the credit system, especially tracking the huge amounts of funds that have been loaned out. If there is a gap in this area, more money must be printed to reach a new equilibrium point through rising prices (internal depreciation of the RMB). This is a price that the Chinese must pay. If there is no problem in this part, stop the appreciation of the RMB immediately and spend the US dollars reserves as soon as possible, or invest in the United States and sell real estate instead of saving American financial institutions. In this way, the United States will not put pressure on the RMB and save the U.S. economy. Whether the Chinese people make profits or losses in the future, it will be beneficial to the present.
China’s stock market and real estate market must be deliberately protected. This is a reflection of the results of China’s reform, especially real estate. Countries around the world regard real estate as the mainstay (last line of defense) of their own economies. Once real estate is endangered, they will Save at all costs. It is normal for China's real estate industry to be hot, and government suppression will only create opportunities for foreign hot money to intervene, making the Chinese people pay a greater price in the future. Real estate developers must be especially protected and don't kill sows and sell their meat when the price of pork increases. It's not the real estate developers' fault that house prices have gone up.
The stock market cannot be saved by foreign capital. Foreign capital will not come to China for no reason. China also does not have the ability to engage in a power game and keep foreign capital in China. In this way, in the case of excess liquidity, the RMB cannot be allowed to appreciation, allowing foreign capital to continue to inflow in large quantities.
China cannot use devaluation to drive away foreign investment, because China’s economy is already inseparable from foreign investment, and driving it away will cause the economy to collapse.
China does not need to implement austerity policies. If this is the case, it will be equivalent to withdrawing China's own money from the main economic battlefield and allowing foreign capital and hot money to dominate the Chinese economy. In the end, China's own funds will be useless.
China must properly control the money-trapping behavior of financial institutions. China should not inflate financial bubbles. Funds cannot flow around financial institutions. China must guide the people to invest in industry. Americans are very smart. People are engaged in high-tech bubbles and Internet bubbles, but I have never heard of financial bubbles. If China has a high financial bubble, can prices not rise? Money is flowing around at the high end, and without more circulating in the industry, the economy can still survive without problems.
The country wants to slow down the share-trading reform. Share-trading is mainly the split of state-owned shares. It is not a good idea to compete with the market for profits (funds) by lifting the ban. The country can change the split period from 3 years. for 30 years. Greatly slowing down the speed of lifting the ban can play a rescue role in the stock market.
The state must strictly control refinancing, and implement efficiency supervision and stock price supervision on listed companies. If the stock price declines due to refinancing, shareholders must be compensated with the refinancing money, so that there is no There will be malicious money-making behavior.
As for stamp duty, it is really not a problem. Whether to reduce it or not is not the key to the issue. The country collected more than 200 billion in stamp duty last year. Even if it is not reduced, it will not collect 200 billion this year. Even if it is reduced, it will not be much. Compared with the lifting of the ban and compared with refinancing, it is nothing at all.
The government should focus on addressing structural issues and not impose random restrictions on the Chinese economy.
[Edit this paragraph] New world financial crisis
A world financial crisis will occur in the next two years
The subprime mortgage crisis has caused financial institutions in developed countries to restructure Estimating risks and allocating assets, in the next two years, funds in developed countries will reverse their flow and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. This will lead to a sharp decline in securities market prices, depreciation of local currencies, decline in investment scale, slowdown in economic growth and even recession in emerging market countries. Among them, the three Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will put pressure on China's economic growth, but Chinese funds also face a good opportunity to "go out" to integrate and acquire corresponding companies at the bottom.
Dark clouds of a worldwide financial crisis are gathering. In the next two years, a new type of financial crisis will occur around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which will bring challenges and new opportunities to China's economic development.
Reversal of capital flows will lead to financial crises in emerging market countries
Why will there be a new type of financial crisis in the world in the future? This starts with the basic pattern of financial industry development in developed economies and emerging market economies over the past decade.
In the past decade, developed economies represented by the United States and the United Kingdom have benefited from the general trend of globalization and have continued to prosper. However, the foundation of this prosperity is actually relatively fragile. The savings of these economies are relatively insufficient, consumption continues to grow, and the financialization trend of the economy continues to strengthen. This is reflected in the fact that households use existing financial assets, especially real estate, as collateral to borrow from banks to support their rising consumption. . The inevitable result of the development of this pattern is the breakdown of the consumer credit chain, and its concentrated manifestation is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis caused US financial institutions to re-evaluate the cost of financial risks, and also required these financial institutions to reallocate their assets to reduce risks.
On the other hand, emerging market economies have attracted a large amount of funds from developed countries during their development over the past decade. Taking Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries as examples, half of their securities markets The above funds come from domestic sources. The increasing overseas capital not only drives up local asset prices, but also promotes the prosperity of the local economy. It also brings about the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate of the local currency. This series of processes planted the seeds for financial crises in these economies, the most prominent of which are two regions: First, the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. Not only did their current accounts have deficits of more than 10% of GDP, but their fiscal Deficits are also growing day by day, domestic price increases are intensifying, and these countries have also implemented a linked exchange rate system pegged to the euro, which is undoubtedly the best chemical reaction formula to lead to a financial crisis.
Another very fragile economy is India. Although the Indian economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 8 over the past three years, its macroeconomic situation is not optimistic: India's current account has been in deficit for a long time, more than half of the funds in the securities market come from overseas, and the inflation rate It continues to rise, and the central government is also in a state of deficit for a long time.
Comprehensive consideration of some economic conditions in developed countries and emerging market countries, it is not difficult for us to draw a conclusion: In the next two years, the world economy is likely to experience a reversal of capital flows, which is what happened a few years ago. Funds from developed economies rushed into emerging market countries in pursuit of high risks and high returns. When developed countries revalued risks, they reversed and flowed back to developed countries, strengthening the stability of financial institutions in developed countries. The formation of this trend will undoubtedly have a direct impact on developing countries and ultimately lead to the formation of financial crises in emerging market countries.
The difference between the new financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis
This financial crisis may have different forms from the Asian financial crisis that occurred ten years ago. The Asian financial crisis that occurred ten years ago was mainly in the form of a balance of payments crisis. At that time, Asia had a large number of maturing foreign debts that needed to be repaid. At the same time, international financial speculators ran on money, resulting in insufficient foreign exchange reserves in these countries, so that they had to Let the currency depreciate significantly. The form of the new round of financial crisis is not necessarily marked by a shortage in the balance of payments, because today many emerging market countries have relatively high foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, because they have learned the lessons of the Asian financial crisis, these countries have not borrowed on a large scale. Just attracting a large amount of foreign investment through the securities market, however, this does not mean that emerging market countries are not facing financial crises. This financial crisis takes the form of a large amount of capital flowing back, which leads to a substantial reduction in the prices of domestic securities markets and the depreciation of local currencies. This has led to a decline in the scale of local investment, a slowdown in economic growth and even a recession. This is a mirror image of the economic surge and asset price bubbles in these emerging market countries a few years ago. The trigger of this new type of financial crisis is likely to be the Baltic Crisis, which may spread from the three Baltic countries to Eastern European countries, then to South Asia, including India, and then to some other emerging market countries.
Capital flows cannot be liberalized blindly, and fiscal policy must retain a certain degree of flexibility
Once such a financial crisis occurs, what challenges will the Chinese economy face? It is possible that some foreign capital will flee as they did in other emerging market economies, which will have a certain impact on China's international balance of payments and put some deflationary pressure on the Chinese economy. However, for the current high-speed A Chinese economy that is running (in fact, running too fast) is not a bad thing. Moreover, this reverse flow of funds will also ease the pressure on RMB appreciation. However, it cannot be denied that this reverse flow of funds will have a certain impact on the scale of domestic investment and will lead to a considerable decline in China's economic growth rate. In addition, the decline in economic growth rate in many emerging market countries will also indirectly affect China's economic growth through the decline in demand for Chinese products. These are the impacts of this new type of financial crisis on the Chinese economy.
We must see that the arrival of this emerging financial crisis also contains huge "business opportunities" for China. When this round of financial crisis occurs, asset prices in many emerging markets will shrink significantly. This will be an excellent opportunity for Chinese funds to go abroad and invest in these countries. This is also the best time for Chinese companies to "go global" and integrate and acquire corresponding companies. Good timing. To this end, the Chinese economic community needs to be prepared in terms of funding and project research. From a macro level, macroeconomic policies must take into account the possibility of this new round of financial crisis. On the issue of capital flows, we must take a steady approach and cannot blindly let go. We must take into account the possibility of a large amount of capital leaving and the resulting consequences. pressure. When a financial crisis occurs, Chuyou's economic growth rate will inevitably decline. Our fiscal policy must retain a certain degree of flexibility. On the premise of continuing to implement the current sound fiscal policy, we must do a good job in projects and funds. Once a new round of financial crisis occurs in neighboring countries, China can turn to proactive fiscal policies and find some investment projects with guaranteed funds and social benefits.
In short, the risk of a new round of financial crisis has arrived. The Chinese giant ship moving at full speed must consider the possible impact of the financial crisis, seize opportunities, and resolve risks. Our economic development journey will have a bright future. .
·Cause
On July 2, 1997, the Asian financial crisis swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through places such as Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. It broke the rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some of Asia's major economic powers have begun to slump, and the political situation in some countries has also begun to be chaotic.
So, what is the reason for the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis?
After watching a series of reports on the Asian financial crisis and doing my own research, I found the following reasons:
1. George Soros’s personal and support Factors of other capitalist groups;
2. The influence of U.S. economic interests and policies;
3. Caused by the economic forms of Asian countries.
1: George Soros’s personal characteristics and the factors that support his capitalist group:
The “financial tycoon” and “an old wolf pretending to be sleeping” are responsible for this financial monster. The title of talent. He once said, "In terms of financial operations, we cannot say whether it is moral or immoral. It is just an operation. The financial market does not belong to the category of morality. It is not immoral. Morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own The rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market and I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I do not feel guilty or responsible in terms of the Asian financial crisis. Whether or not I speculate will have no effect on the occurrence of financial events. I don't think there is anything immoral about speculating on foreign currencies. On the other hand, I respect the rules and care about them. Rules. As a person who has morals and cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules if they affect me. In my own interests, I will still support it, because the rule that needs to be improved may be the reason for the incident.”
As we all know, Soros’s speculation on the Thai baht was the fuse of the Asian financial crisis. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge amounts of capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.
2: The influence of U.S. economic interests and policies:
In 1949, the founding of New China heralded the establishment of the socialist camp. The United States, as the number one capitalist power, has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist united front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Southeast Asia have all become economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, some Southeast Asian countries experienced rapid economic development.
However, in 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the collapse of the socialist camp. Of course, the United States would not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover its economic losses. He condoned Soros' behavior.
Three: The economic shape of Asian countries leads to:
Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and other countries are all countries with export-oriented economies. Their dependence on world markets is huge. The turmoil in Asia's economy will inevitably have consequences for the entire economy. Take Thailand as an example. Whether the Thai baht is bought or sold in the international market is not decided by the government, and it does not have sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Faced with the speculation of financiers, the country's economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so Thailand’s political situation is also turbulent.
·Enlightenment
(1) The degree of openness of a country’s economy is based on strong economic strength and stable political power. Only with strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about and truly developing the economy.
(2) An economist can only promote social progress and development if he has a correct outlook on life and values. Otherwise, he will not be a real economist and will hinder economic development. effect.
(3) Only by improving comprehensive national strength can a country be invincible.