What is the subprime mortgage crisis and what are its consequences?
1. The concept of subprime mortgage crisis [edit this paragraph] The subprime mortgage crisis is also called subprime mortgage crisis, which is also translated as subprime mortgage crisis. It refers to a storm caused by the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage institutions, the forced closure of investment funds and the violent shock of the stock market in the United States. It triggered an imminent liquidity crisis in major global financial markets. The "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States began to appear gradually in the spring of 2006. In August 2007, it swept the major financial markets in the world, such as the United States, the European Union and Japan. 2. The emergence of the subprime mortgage crisis [edit this paragraph] The direct cause of the storm in the subprime mortgage market in the United States is the rise in interest rates in the United States and the continuous cooling of the housing market. Subprime mortgage refers to loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income. The rise in interest rates has led to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with bad credit feel that repayment pressure is high and there is the possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans. 2. The principle of1.[Edit this paragraph] The direct cause of the storm in the US subprime mortgage market is the rise of interest rates in the United States and the continuous cooling of the housing market. Subprime mortgage refers to loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income. The American subprime mortgage market usually adopts a combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, buyers repay their loans at a fixed interest rate in the first few years after buying a house, and then at a floating interest rate. In the five years before 2006, due to the continuous prosperity of the US housing market and the low interest rates in previous years, the US subprime mortgage market developed rapidly. With the cooling of American housing market, especially the increase of short-term interest rate, the repayment rate of subprime mortgage has also risen sharply, and the repayment burden of buyers has greatly increased. At the same time, the continuous cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for buyers to sell their houses or refinance through mortgaged houses. This situation directly leads to a large number of borrowers with subprime mortgage loans can not repay on time, which in turn leads to "subprime mortgage crisis". Actually, it's already very serious now. I'm afraid the growth rate of 10% is difficult to achieve unless it is falsely reported. In fact, the previous development speed of 10% was moisture. I do statistics, and I know that only one figure is the most true, that is, profits and taxes, and the same tax burden, profits and taxes are more. It shows that the economy has increased. /YWCZ/200809/T20080923 _ 2304657.htm The impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy began with the US subprime mortgage crisis, then went to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "Fannie Mae" crisis, and then Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch was acquired, AIG, the largest insurance company in the United States, was injected with $85 billion to rescue the market, and the global stock market continued to fall. In today's global financial and economic integration, we must carefully analyze the impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy and take targeted measures to avoid greater losses. In my opinion, the impact is as follows: 1. China's economic growth rate has obviously slowed down. The slowdown of China's economic growth this year and next will become the general trend, and the slowdown of exports and fixed assets investment is an inevitable trend. According to the annual report "Asia Development Outlook Update 2008" released by the Asian Development Bank on June 6th, it is predicted that the economic growth rate of China will drop from 1 1.9% in 2007 to10%. In 2009, China's economic growth rate will further drop to 9.5%. The main reasons are as follows: (1) Due to the slowdown of American economic growth, the slowdown of export growth far exceeds expectations; (2) The rising inflation rate will make the government adopt stricter monetary policy, the growth rate of fixed assets investment will slow down, the tide of enterprise closure will appear, and the growth of industrial profits will slow down greatly; ③ The cooling of the real estate market under the credit crunch may lead to a more serious crisis than in 2008; (4) Under macro-control, the growth rate of investment in real estate, steel, cement, aluminum alloy and automobile industries slowed down; ⑤ It is difficult to create new jobs every year100000 people. Migrant workers have returned to their hometowns to farm, and the hidden unemployment in rural areas has increased greatly; ⑥ The forecast of CPI increase in China in 2008 is raised from the previous 5.5% to 7% due to the transmission factors that the oil price and electricity price may be further raised next year. The forecast value in 2009 was raised from 5% in April 2008 to 5.5%; ⑦ The growth rate of residents' consumption is declining, and relying on consumption to stimulate economic growth is equal to "painting cakes to satisfy hunger". The increase of income instability, the negative wealth effect of the stock market and the further widening of the income gap between urban and rural residents have curbed residents' desire for consumption. 2. The central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma. At present, the central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma between "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation". Under the global financial crisis, China's economic growth has been restrained, and it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down. However, under the sustained high-speed growth of 10, "sudden braking" will lead to the closure of a large number of enterprises, employment difficulties, and affect social stability and harmony. The relaxation of monetary policy has made the already serious PPI and CPI more rampant. It is proved that the "two rates" announced by 15 have reduced the market ungrateful. Similarly, whether the RMB will continue to appreciate or depreciate against the US dollar is also a "dilemma" choice. 3. It is difficult to improve the operating efficiency of the banking industry in China. The main reasons are as follows: ① Under the economic downturn, the expansion space of banking business has narrowed; (2) Under the policy of increasing residents' income instability and monetary tightening, the contradiction between a large increase in deposits and a decrease in loan increments is prominent, and the benchmark loan interest rate is lowered by 0.27 percentage points; (3) The economic downturn has led to the bankruptcy of industries and enterprises, and the rebound pressure of non-performing loans of banks is great (such as real estate loans, detailed analysis below); (4) After the asset bubble burst, the bank collateral shrank sharply, the loan mortgage rate exceeded the "warning line" and the second repayment source was lost. Loans such as real estate mortgage, land mortgage and stock pledge are the most obvious; ⑤ Losses caused to bankrupt American companies by holding American subordinated debts or loans. For example, China Bank Group * * * holds $75.62 million in bonds issued by Lehman Brothers Holding Company and its subsidiaries; China Industrial and Commercial Bank lent Lehman a loan of 50 million US dollars; China Merchants Bank lent Lehman $80 million; ⑥ China Commercial Bank's overseas acquisitions and investments in 2008 were intensified by the crisis, and the past "bargain hunting" behavior became the current "temporary" result. According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, the profits of H-share Chinese banks in Hong Kong will drop by about 4%-8% in 2009. The profit of small joint-stock A-share banks decreased by 8%- 13%. 4. Any rescue by the central bank will be "disorderly". In the past two days, global central banks and financial regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, have demonstrated their magic and injected more than 300 billion dollars of liquidity into the financial system. In the past two days, the Federal Reserve has continuously injected $654.38+02 billion into the market through the repurchase agreement, which is the largest capital injection since "965.438+065.438+0". Following the United States, many central banks in the euro zone, Britain, Japan, Australia, Switzerland and so on have also taken continuous capital injection measures. In Asia, Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province provinces successively announced the reduction of deposit reserve ratio or loan interest rate, while Indonesian announced the reduction of overnight repo rate. However, the efforts of central banks have not received immediate results. Dow, Standard & Poor's 500, Nasdaq, European stock market and London stock market all fell, the selling pressure of A-share financial stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was heavy, and the Shanghai Composite Index 10 annual cost line was also in jeopardy. After investor confidence drops to freezing point, any rescue measures will become a "short-lived" "green landscape" under the heavy selling pressure. However, a proactive fiscal policy is needed. Today, the unilateral collection of stamp duty is a good behavior to save the market. After investors lose confidence, it is best to abolish stamp duty completely. The real "winter" of the real estate industry has come, and it is tantamount to "dreaming" to hope that the government will save the housing market. In the economic downturn caused by the global financial crisis, the real "winter" of China's real estate industry and the risk of bank non-performing loans will begin to appear at the end of 2008 and the first half of 2009. In the future, the continuous decline of real estate industry turnover, the weakening of buyers' confidence and the wait-and-see attitude of holding money, the continuous increase of vacancy rate and the decline of gross profit margin will cause developers to encounter cash flow problems, and the risk of non-performing loans in banking real estate will be greatly increased. According to the analysis of Goldman Sachs' loan records from banks to 65 real estate developers, since the property market adjustment in May 438+10 last year, the phenomenon of insufficient cash flow of developers has gradually been exposed; However, developers still attract domestic and foreign private investors with higher interest rates. In order to raise cash, domestic big-name star real estate developers Vanke and Evergrande compete to reduce prices. Housing prices in cities in the Pearl River Delta have obviously fallen into a downward trend, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Huizhou. China government agencies said on June 16 that the house price index of 70 cities tracked in August fell for the first time from the previous month, with the Shanghai area falling by 0.2%. At present, the phenomenon of falling house prices is becoming more and more common in all parts of China, and real estate investment is further shrinking. In addition, Morgan Stanley, which once actively invested in Shanghai real estate, now wants to sell some top luxury houses. Recently, Morgan Stanley's real estate fund auctioned two luxury houses in Shanghai, including more than 65,438+000 commercial houses in Xintiandi. In addition, Morgan Stanley originally intended to buy the floor of Shanghai World Financial Center, the tallest building in Shanghai, but later gave up. Combined with the "financial crisis" in the United States, Morgan Stanley's auction of China real estate may be to prepare for a potential liquidity crisis, or it may indicate that some foreign investors are ready to withdraw from the China real estate market, which will "add insult to injury" to the China real estate market in the severe winter-first, the developers face a solvency crisis, then the weaker real estate developers close down, and then the domestic banks are affected.