These loans are usually issued by venture capital banks, because the lenders are all low-income groups, so their repayment ability is weak, which is easy to cause bad debts. Is the fuse of this financial crisis.
"If we consider that the fourth quarter is generally the quarter in which banks write off the most non-performing loans, then the actual increase in the non-performing loan ratio in the fourth quarter of last year will be greater than 4.9%." Cyndi Luo, a banking analyst at CICC, said.
In terms of institutions, the balance of non-performing loans of large commercial banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks all increased, ranging from 2.7% to 14.8%. Among them, rural commercial banks rose the most, reaching14.8%; Followed by joint-stock banks, accounting for 6%. This means that banking institutions with weak risk control ability and concentrated loans to small and medium-sized enterprises have higher risks.
From the five-level classification, the rise of non-performing loans mainly comes from the increase of subprime loans, and new subprime loans account for 90% of new non-performing loans. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, subprime loans increased by 12.3% month-on-month, and the proportion of doubtful loans and loss loans was relatively stable, reflecting that the downward migration of banking assets quality is still in its infancy.
People close to the regulator said that after the CBRC implemented stricter risk classification and supervision, the regulator estimated that if factors such as local government financing platform, real estate and industrial restructuring were comprehensively considered, the non-performing rate of the banking industry would increase slightly in the future. He believes that the non-performing loan ratio of about 2% is reasonable and acceptable for China's high economic growth.
Economic downturn or risk expansion
According to the annual data, the asset quality of China's banking industry continues to improve, but if the future economic downside risks lead to a surge in "hidden" non-performing loans, the banking industry will face the pressure of rising non-performing loans.
According to the research report of CITIC Securities, it is expected that in the first quarter of this year, the pressure on the quality of bank assets will be more prominent, and the balance and ratio of non-performing loans will be "Shuang Sheng", which may lead to a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 260% to 270%. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the quality of banking assets this year, and the balance of non-performing loans may increase by 10% to 15%.
A banker recently revealed that the bank's 7 billion yuan credit loan to a land reserve center in a first-tier city has been unable to repay normally. Due to the sharp decline in the scale of land bidding, auction and hanging last year, the income from land transfer fees dropped sharply and the cash flow was cut off, resulting in the center defaulting on bank loans.
Relevant researchers said that the risk of local debt is not the default risk, but the liquidity risk. If we can appropriately extend the debt maturity or increase other financing channels to maintain liquidity, we can not only ease the pressure of debt repayment, but also ease the pressure of fiscal austerity, which is conducive to increasing people's livelihood expenditure and reducing the downside risks of China's macro economy. Bank insiders also believe that most local government financing platform loans are fully mortgaged by land. Even if calculated according to the value-added part of land, banks can completely make up for the loan risk by dealing with land.