The government work report pointed out that the economic growth rate is a comprehensive indicator, and the expected target for this year is set at more than 6%. Considering the recovery of economic operation, it is conducive to guiding all parties to concentrate on promoting reform and innovation and promoting high-quality development. Economic growth, employment, prices and other expected goals reflect the requirements of keeping the economy running in a reasonable range, which is conducive to achieving sustained and healthy development.
This is different from last year. In 2020, the government work report did not put forward specific targets for annual economic growth.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, explained: "The main expected targets of 202 1 have returned to normal in an all-round way. Among them, the GDP growth target has been restored, but only the lowest bottom line target has been set (the growth level of 6% is basically equivalent to China's current potential GDP growth rate), which is obviously different from the interval target and specific numerical target usually set in previous years. In the context of the global epidemic entering the' second half' this year and the world economy is expected to rebound sharply, China's GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8% to 9%, and it is not difficult to achieve this bottom line goal. " And in Wang Qing's view, on the whole, the 20021Government Work Report reflects the latest changes in the epidemic situation and the economic and social development situation, and makes targeted arrangements in target setting and policy deployment. The focus of this year's work is to guide economic and social development back to normal, deepen structural reforms in the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, and strive to show a new atmosphere of building a new pattern of dual-cycle development and leading high-quality economic development.
A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and precise.
The government work report pointed out that macroeconomic policies should continue to bail out market players, maintain necessary support, do not make sharp turns, adjust and improve in time according to changes in the situation, and further consolidate economic fundamentals.
Earlier, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out: "The macro policy in 20021year should be continuous, stable and sustainable. We must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, make policy operations more accurate and effective, do not make sharp turns, and grasp the effectiveness of policies. "
Specific to monetary policy, this government work report proposes that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate. Put serving the real economy in a more prominent position and handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention. The growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate, the liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, and the macro leverage ratio remains basically stable.
In this regard, the 2020 government work report pointed out: "A prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate. Comprehensive use of RRR to cut interest rates, refinancing and other means to guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale is significantly higher than last year. "
Wang Qing believes that compared with last year, this year's monetary policy will shift from hedging the downward pressure on the economy to grasping the comprehensive balance of steady growth, risk prevention and inflation control.
He also said that "the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate", which means that the money supply will slow down slightly this year. Under the "tight credit", the growth rate of M2 and stock social financing this year will be 1 to 2 percentage points lower than that in 2020, which reflects the "turn" of monetary policy in 20021year.
Wang Qing also pointed out that after the market interest rate has generally risen to near the policy interest rate at the beginning of the year, "maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity" means that it is unlikely that there will be a trend tightening of funds this year. The future market interest rate will fluctuate greatly around the policy interest rate. It is expected that the annual interest rate center will not rise sharply compared with the level at the beginning of the year, and the overall situation is characterized by "monetary stability".
A proactive fiscal policy should improve quality and efficiency.
In terms of fiscal policy, the government work report pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy should improve quality, increase efficiency and be more sustainable. Considering that the epidemic situation has been effectively controlled and the economy is gradually recovering, deficit ratio plans to arrange around 3.2% this year, which is lower than last year's level, and will no longer issue special anti-epidemic bonds.
Wang Qing believes that the tone of fiscal policy has returned to "improving quality and increasing efficiency" before the epidemic, emphasizing "more sustainable", which means that the overall fiscal policy will be lowered this year, with the main goal of reducing the growth rate of government debt and stabilizing the government's macro leverage ratio.
Wang Qing also said that although deficit ratio has decreased this year compared with the previous year, the intensity of fiscal policy this year still exceeds the previous market expectations, especially the scale of new local government special bonds has decreased slightly-in part to make up for the possible decline of local government's state-owned land transfer income in 20021year. This reflects that this year's macro policy "does not make a sharp turn", and also emphasizes that fiscal policy should continue to help small and micro enterprises and other market players by increasing tax cuts and reducing expenses. Since 65438+February 2020, the PMI of small manufacturing enterprises has been in a shrinking range.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2020, the PMI of small enterprises was 48.8%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was below the critical point. In 20021February, the PMI of small enterprises was 48.3%, which was 1. 1 percentage point lower than that of last month and still below the critical point.