Current location - Loan Platform Complete Network - Bank loan - The cost of credit in China is very low. Analyze the reasons for this phenomenon.
The cost of credit in China is very low. Analyze the reasons for this phenomenon.
I think, I think, I think, I think, I think, I think, I think. According to experts' analysis, there are the following 10 reasons, which make us dare not despise this round of price increase in China. 1, the world economy will continue to grow strongly, increasing global inflationary pressure. In view of the good global economic growth momentum in the first half of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the world economic growth forecast for this year and next to 5.2% from 4.9% in April this year, and the United States has regained its growth momentum in the second quarter; Japan's economic recovery is in good condition and is expected to enter the normal growth track; In the first half of the year, the euro zone economy was significantly better than expected; The economies of emerging markets and developing countries continue to grow rapidly, especially China, Indian and Russian. In the case of sustained and strong global economic growth, supply constraints have increased and inflation risks have increased. 2. China's economy will continue to operate at a high level. Since 2003, China's economy has entered a new boom cycle, and the endogenous power of economic growth is very strong. In the first half of this year, the GDP growth rate reached 1 1.5%, setting a new high in the same period in the past 12 years. The three major demands of investment, consumption and export are heating up in an all-round way, and it is expected that China will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the next few years. Higher economic growth rate will stimulate the rise of total social demand and push up prices. 3. The income of urban and rural residents shows a rare rapid growth trend. In the first half of this year, the average wage of urban workers nationwide increased by18.5% year-on-year; In addition, some surveys show that the per capita cash income of farmers in the first half of the year was 211yuan. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth rate was 13.3%, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the wage income of farmers and the income from selling agricultural products increased rapidly, by 19.3% and 17.3% respectively year-on-year, which indicates that the wage increase caused by the "shortage of migrant workers" has spread from coastal areas to all parts of the country. On the one hand, the rising wage level of the labor force and the expansion of the coverage of the social security system will directly raise the costs of enterprises and products and induce cost-driven inflation; On the other hand, it will improve the consumption power of urban and rural residents, leading to demand-driven inflation. 4. Asset prices represented by stock market and real estate continue to rise. In the first half of this year, housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by an average of 5.95% year-on-year. Although house prices are not directly included in CPI, the continuous rise of house prices will be transmitted to CPI through rent, water heating fees, decoration materials and other projects. After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes continued to fluctuate and rise, hitting record highs, driven by multiple factors such as rapid economic growth, medium and long-term RMB appreciation expectations, and substantial growth in the performance of listed companies. At present, it has reached the high point of 4700 points, and the market turnover has also been enlarged. 5. The high rebound pressure of investment in fixed assets is greater. In the first half of this year, China's total social investment in fixed assets was 5.4168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Although the year-on-year growth rate has declined, it still remains on a high growth platform, and the investment rebound trend is obvious. Among them, the investment in urban fixed assets increased by 28.5% in June, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than that in1-May. Stimulated by the sharp rise in housing prices, the growth rate of real estate investment has obviously accelerated. In the first half of the year, real estate investment increased by 28.5% year-on-year, 4.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Therefore, before the basic factors such as low interest rate, excess money and credit, substantial increase in corporate profits, and economic growth mainly relying on investment have not fundamentally changed, the pressure of investment rebound is greater. 6. The growth momentum of consumption has obviously picked up. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 4,204.4 billion yuan, up by 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2. 1 percentage point higher than the same period of last year, the highest since 1997. According to historical data, about 40% of fixed assets investment funds are gradually transformed into consumer funds. In recent years, the rapid growth of investment funds will inevitably release huge consumption power, and strong exports will also improve the efficiency and employment of enterprises. In addition, the government's support policies for agriculture and rural areas have greatly improved the actual income level of farmers, and these factors will accumulate to promote consumption growth. 7. The rise in food prices is spreading. Affected by factors such as the decline of international grain stocks and international price transmission, domestic grain prices may continue to rise slightly in the near future. Grain is the source of grain production chain, which can largely determine the trend of grain prices. On the one hand, pork and eggs, which rose sharply in the previous period, continued to rise. After consultation, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce believe that the situation of high pig prices and tight pork supply will last for a long time; On the other hand, due to rising costs, instant noodles, dairy products, fast food and so on. Recently, prices have been rising, showing a spreading trend. 8. The market is full of liquidity and there is too much money and credit. After all, the price increase can be attributed to the monetary phenomenon. Due to the high current account surplus and capital account surplus, the base currency passively invested through foreign exchange holdings continues to increase. At the end of June, M2 increased by 17.06% year-on-year, 0.32 percentage points higher than that at the end of May, and also exceeded the target growth rate of 1.06 percentage points set at the beginning of the year. At the same time, credit supply has also increased substantially, with 2.54 trillion yuan of new loans in the first half of the year, a record for the same period in history. Abundant funds will eventually form purchasing power and push up the price level. 9. The international crude oil price soared, and the prices of major non-ferrous metals fluctuated greatly, which brought great pressure to China's price increase. International since this year