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First, the factors that generate interest.
Delayed consumption
Lenders lend money, which is equivalent to delaying the consumption of consumer goods. According to the principle of time preference, consumers will prefer current goods to future goods, so there will be positive interest rates in the free market.
Expected inflation
Inflation will occur in most economies, which means that a certain amount of money will buy less goods in the future than it does now. So the borrower needs to compensate the lender for the losses during this period.
alternative investment
Lenders can choose to invest their money in other investments. Due to the opportunity cost, the lender lends money, which is equivalent to giving up the possible return on other investments. Borrowers need to compete with other investments for this fund.
investment risk
Borrowers are at risk of bankruptcy, absconding or default at any time, and lenders need to charge extra fees to ensure that they can still get compensation under these circumstances.
liquidity preference
People will prefer that their funds or resources can be traded immediately at any time instead of spending time or money to get them back. Interest rate is also a kind of compensation for this.
Second, the impact of the stock market on interest.
1, cancel or reduce interest tax
At present, the real interest rate of savings is negative. In order to reduce the diversion of residents' savings to the stock market, although interest tax adjustment is bad news for the stock market in theory, it is not entirely true.
First of all, even if the interest tax is completely abolished, it will only be equivalent to an increase of 0.6 percentage points in bank interest, and the annual interest income of 654.38+10,000 yuan deposits will increase by 6 12 yuan, which is almost "negligible" compared with the return on investment in the stock market.
The adjustment of interest tax does not increase the loan cost of enterprises and has no negative impact on the operation of listed companies. But it has a positive effect on listed banks.
2. Increase the interest on bank deposits.
There is an obvious "leverage effect" between interest rates and the stock market, which will affect the increase or decrease of the stock market and bank funds. However, the rising interest rate will increase the production cost of enterprises, restrain the demand of enterprises and personal consumption, and ultimately affect the performance level of listed companies.
Raising interest rates for the stock market means increasing the cost of capital invested in the stock market. Bank interest rate hike and national debt interest rate hike are generally complementary. If the market risk-free rate of return increases, it will also affect the risk-free rate of return of the stock market.
However, judging from the extent and space of China's current interest rate hike and the development status of China's stock market, the core issue of whether residents' savings can be attracted to the stock market is how profitable and safe the stock market is. That is, if the investment income of the stock market is higher than the income of bank deposits compared with its safe income, then choosing the stock market will be the main reason for the diversion of savings.