On September 1 1, the central bank announced the financial and credit data for August. Among them, RMB loans increased by 1.2 1 trillion in August, social financing increased by 1.98 trillion, and M2 increased by 8.2% year-on-year. Specifically:

(1) RMB loans rebounded slightly, and structural problems still exist.

New RMB loans rebounded slightly. In August, financial institutions increased RMB loans 1.2 1 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 70 billion; Although it only increased slightly by 654.38+05 billion yuan compared with last month, the funds flowing to the financial sector (non-banking financial institutions) increased by 327.3 billion yuan compared with last month, but flowed to the real sector (residents and enterprises, etc.). ) has increased significantly, indicating that the support for the real economy has increased.

In terms of sub-items, short-term loans and bills contributed a lot. Among them, short-term loans rebounded after a seasonal decline in July. In August, residents' short-term loans increased by 654.38+0998 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+0303 billion yuan from the previous month, while corporate loans were still decreasing, but the increase was 654.38+084 billion yuan from the previous month. Bill financing increased by 242.6 billion yuan, a further increase of1142 billion yuan compared with July, or it was related to some enterprises replacing short-term loans with low-cost bill financing.

Medium and long-term loans have not changed much, and structural problems still exist. The residential sector increased by 454 billion yuan, basically the same as last month; The enterprise sector increased by 428.5 billion yuan, an increase of 60.7 billion yuan over the previous month. Not only has the scale increased very little, but its proportion in medium and long-term loans is still low. In my opinion, under the pressure of economic fundamentals, at least in August, the risk appetite of financial institutions has not been observed to decrease, and the financing demand of the real sector continues to be weak.

(2) Loans and bills helped social financing to improve significantly compared with last month.

In August, social financing increased by 654.38+0.98 billion yuan, basically the same as last year, but increased by 968.8 billion yuan compared with last month, mainly relying on RMB loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills. Among them, RMB loans with social financing caliber increased by10.3 trillion yuan, which was 4910.40 billion yuan higher than that of last month because the changes in loans from non-bank financial institutions were not included. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 654.38+05.7 billion yuan, indicating that the bill market is still inactive, but there is an improvement of about 472 billion yuan compared with last month, which is related to the sharp decrease in the maturity of bills in August compared with July.

Direct financing still maintains its scale. In August, the issuance of corporate bonds continued to rise, increasing by 304,654.38 billion yuan, an increase of 806,543.8 billion yuan from the previous month. The issuance of special bonds slowed down compared with July, but the net financing was still 3.210.30 billion. Considering that the quota is almost used up during the year, the quota issued in advance has not been put in place, and it is expected to shrink in September. After the issuance of new shares of science and technology innovation board, stock financing decreased normally, increasing by 25.6 billion.

On the non-standard side, trust loans and entrusted loans are still shrinking, decreasing by 65.8 billion and 565.438+0.3 billion respectively in August, indicating that the impact of structural deleveraging and tightening of real estate financing is still continuing; According to the data of usufructuary trust, the number of real estate collective trusts established in August decreased by about 45% year-on-year.

(3) The overall downgrade in September will boost the growth rate of M 1 and M2.

In addition, the author believes that the current money supply is closely related to economic fundamentals. As far as the actual economic situation is concerned, there have been many twists and turns in Sino-US negotiations recently, and the uncertain prospect of negotiations is still the biggest uncertainty affecting China's economic trend in the short term; Under the internal and external pressure, the economic and financial data of industrial production, social zero, infrastructure, manufacturing and credit in July were hardly optimistic; In August, PMI fell again, and high-frequency data such as coal consumption for power generation showed no signs of improvement. The published foreign trade data also performed poorly, and the growth rate of exports to the United States further declined.

The above conditions determine that the current demand for entity financing is still weak, the risk appetite of financial institutions such as banks has not been reduced, and risk prevention has not been relaxed. The central bank insists on not engaging in "flood irrigation", and the tightening of real estate financing policy continues. In this context, the M2 in August increased by 8.2% year-on-year, slightly increasing by 0. 1% compared with that in July. The growth rate of M 1 is 3.4%, with a slight increase of 0.3%, which is still weak on the whole. Of course, with the implementation of RRR's comprehensive interest rate cut in September, the subsequent growth rate of money supply is expected to rebound.

(D) Inflation has not been restrained under the pig cycle, and it is expected that there will be more tools to dredge the transmission mechanism.

Overall, the financial and credit data in August rebounded sharply from the previous month, but it was generally in line with expectations. The fact that financing in the real economy is still weak has not changed, and structural problems remain outstanding. It is noteworthy that, in order to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, on September 6, the central bank announced the implementation of a comprehensive directional reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, releasing long-term funds of about 900 billion yuan, which opened a new round of comprehensive easing policy, reflecting the determination of the top management to take measures to stabilize the economy and increase counter-cyclical adjustment.

With the implementation of RRR interest rate cuts, the growth rate of money supply and the data of corporate loans will be greatly improved. But in my opinion, the solution of structural problems and the dredge of transmission mechanism still need the cooperation of other tools and reforms. Specifically:

First, more flexible use of targeted tools, maximize the role of TMLF, targeted reduction of deposit reserve ratio, rediscount and re-lending, and guide more funds to entity enterprises, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises.

The second is to improve the application mechanism of price-based tools, and it is expected to cut interest rates after LPR reform. Although the inflationary pressure has increased in the recent pig cycle, recently, policy makers have intensively introduced measures to stabilize pork prices. After excluding pork, the core CPI, PPI, deflator and other indicators are still at a low level, and the global interest rate cut cycle has also started. Many factors will give monetary policy more space. In this context, the central bank can then reduce the MLF interest rate by "cutting interest rates" to promote the gradual reduction of the real interest rate level, thus driving the financing needs of entities.

The third is to solve the problem by accelerating the financial supply-side reform measures such as "one track and two tracks" of loan interest rate, "three levels and two excellent" deposit reserve system of small and medium-sized banks, and normalization of real estate financing regulation. If it can be gradually improved, it is of great significance to dredge the transmission mechanism and strengthen the financial support for the real economy.