2065438+July 2008, Xu officially became a member of the unemployed army. Prior to this, he was a special trainer of a training institution, specializing in "high-end training" for bosses of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including foreign trade integrated marketing, enterprise management skills, market development and expansion, and cross-border e-commerce training. The average monthly income is more than 200,000.
However, this year's market environment has brought Xu's "golden collar" life to an end. "In the past, most of our customers were bosses of small foreign trade enterprises in some rich places, and they succeeded in being confused. They earned some money to gild, explore resources, spent a lot of money, bought all the courses, and often invited me to teach in their company alone, but this year's small foreign trade enterprises are too difficult to do, and there are closed' Jiangnan Leather Factory' everywhere. "
The most direct impact of unemployment on Xu is that he lost the most reliable source of income because he repaid four new real estate loans under his name. "At the beginning of 20 17, several friends and I traveled abroad several times, and successively invested in four properties, using various forms of loans, and borrowed a total of1100000, with interest, with an average of about100000 per month.
The original100000 new mortgage only accounts for 30% of Xu's monthly income and will not affect his daily living expenses. "I still have several houses in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Nanjing, and I can collect 60,000 to 70,000 yuan in rent every month. There are also some personal investments outside, which can yield a return of 40 thousand to 50 thousand a month. But if there is no job, these are just enough to repay the new loan. The key is that I haven't paid off the loans for my previous two suites and have two children.
165438+1At the beginning of October, Xu chose to "stop supplying" a new house he bought in Anhui, and also prepared to "stop supplying" a new house he bought in Shandong.
"Even if it falls, it can't be sold."
"If there is a way, who is willing to waste so much money? A suite has a down payment of several million. If you cut off one set, you will lose a down payment. You know, in just a few months, I feel that my depression, heart disease and high blood pressure are getting better soon. A penny is worth a penny, not to mention that I am not a hero. " Xu said that when the bank called to confirm, his heart was bleeding.
Default means that the mortgage lender no longer pays the monthly loan principal and interest to the bank, and the house originally purchased by the lender will be disposed of by the bank. Generally speaking, the bank will entrust the court to auction the property, and the proceeds will be used to repay the bank's debts. If the debt is paid off, it will be repaid to the lender. If the arrears are not paid off, the bank will also seal up other assets of the lender.
Before deciding to cut off the supply, Xu tried various ways to alleviate the cash flow dilemma, including hanging out several rented properties for trading and negotiating with the lending bank to mortgage other assets, but in the end he could not solve the urgent need. "I have sold a lot of houses at a price reduction of hundreds of thousands. Up to now, none of them can be sold. There are many people looking at the house, but few people really want to buy it. The intermediary told me that the market environment is poor now, more and more houses are being sold, and fewer and fewer people are buying houses, either reducing prices or waiting for a while. " Xu said that he never thought the market would be so cold.
Take Xu's real estate in Shanghai as an example. It is a small apartment of 85 square meters located in Jing 'an District, Shanghai. It is a hard currency that has attracted much attention in the second-hand housing market. The listing price of the house in the surrounding community is around 7.5 million, and his price has been hung within 6.9 million. "It has dropped by more than one million than the high point, and I can't drop it any more. I'd rather not have those new houses in other provinces. This is a first-tier city.
According to the statistics of intermediary agencies such as Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate and Branch Holdings, the reporter found that in 20 18, the Shanghai property market entered a long-term frozen period, and the transaction volume and average transaction price of second-hand houses were at historical lows. According to the data released by the Shanghai Second-hand Housing Index Office, the Shanghai Second-hand Housing Index has been docked with 1 1 month, and the transaction volume of Shanghai Second-hand Housing1.3 million sets has dropped by nearly half compared with the same period of 20 16 years.
Not only in Shanghai, but also in Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong and other places, Xu said that most of the properties under his name have declined this year, and only two properties in third-tier cities are still slowly rising, and their price increase has a great relationship with local urban planning.
Under the round of real estate regulation and control policies, roller coasters in first-and second-tier cities have stepped on the brakes and even put on the reverse gear. China Academy of Social Sciences released the Report on Housing Demand in China in June+February, 5438 (hereinafter referred to as the Report), which shows that since 20 18, the real estate regulation and control policies have been continuously increased, and the number of real estate regulation and control in China has reached 405 times, which is nearly 80% higher than that in 20 17.
Corresponding to the regulated Gu Feng, the first-and second-tier property markets declined in the second half of this year. According to the report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in the first three quarters of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier cities dropped significantly. After the year-on-year growth rate of housing prices in first-tier cities dropped to-1. 12% in March 2065+08, the growth rate of second-tier cities basically maintained negative growth.
The indifference of the property market makes the buyers who "buy up but not buy down" wait and see more. According to the transaction data given by many intermediaries, due to the downward trend of housing prices in first-and second-tier cities, the transaction volume and transaction volume of key cities across the country have dropped significantly. At the same time, the average trading cycle of buyers is obviously prolonged. For example, the transaction cycle of Shanghai chain home is longer than 2 1 day, and the cycle increase reaches 83%.
The number of cases of default has increased.
Different from Xu, the senior account manager in the investment banking department of a large securities firm in Hangzhou did not make up his mind to cut off the supply, although he also faced the problem of a sharp drop in stable income. "No supply, not only the down payment is gone, but also the house is gone. The previous mortgage was equivalent to a white return. My wife and I are very reluctant to part. I'm fine, my wife is under great pressure. "
At the end of 20 16, Zhou Ming and his wife invested in two more houses in Xiamen, although there were already three houses under their name. "My wife is originally from Xiamen, and the number of elderly people buying houses in Xiamen has been there. At that time, house prices in Xiamen had been rising. The two families gritted their teeth and decided to invest in two more houses. "
However, his wife's unemployment, his pay cut and the cold weather in Xiamen's real estate market forced Zhou Ming to consider giving up one of the houses. "In August this year, the P2P company where his wife worked went bankrupt, and I have been unable to find a suitable job since I came out. It's hard for me to protect myself. Including the basic salary and the business commission I should have, my salary will probably be half that of last year. This is optimistic. The key is that housing prices in Xiamen have also fallen. "
From March 2065438 to March 2007, Xiamen issued the "most restrictive purchase order", which strictly restricted Xiamen's household registration and foreign household registration, and the Xiamen property market took a turn for the better. The reporter counted the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the Statistics Bureau in recent years, and found that the price of second-hand housing in Xiamen has been falling for 20 months since April 20 17.
Zhou Ming bought a house in jimei district, which fell below the purchase price on June 5438+ 10, which shattered Zhou Ming's last psychological defense. "Every once in a while, the intermediary came to tell me that the price of this community has been reduced, and the listing price of the owner next door has been lowered by tens of thousands. Once he sent a text message, which happened to be the salary text message of that month. Less than 10 thousand, the whole person will collapse. "
Compared with the salary level when investing in Xiamen residence, Zhou Ming feels that he lives in almost two different worlds. "The big bull market of 20 15 has hundreds of thousands of incomes a month, and 20 16 has an average of more than 30,000 a month. 20 17 years is very miserable, about 15 thousand to 20 thousand, but I didn't expect it to be miserable now.
Zhou Ming said that his brokerage industry is entering a difficult winter, and small and medium-sized brokers are facing the situation of layoffs and salary cuts to maintain profits. The reporter calculated and compared the data of 3 1 listed brokers in the semi-annual reports of 20 17 and 20 18, and found that the number of employees of 9 brokers decreased year-on-year, and the salaries of more than 20 brokers decreased year-on-year, among which Guohai Securities decreased by 32%, while Guoyuan Securities, Guo Jin Securities, Zheshang Securities, Western Securities and Haitong Securities all decreased by more than 20%.
Some industries, which bear the brunt of the economic transformation, have heard the news of layoffs and salary cuts, and are experiencing the pain of transformation. For example, in June 5438+February alone, companies such as Meituan, Zhihu, JD.COM, Betta and ofo laid off employees in the Internet industry. In addition, Didi also reported that employees' year-end awards were halved and executives had no year-end awards.
After rounds of thunder, Zhou Ming's wife's P2P industry has become a "minefield". Zhou Ming said that due to his work experience in P2P company, it brought great inconvenience to his wife's subsequent job search. "My wife is in sales and applied for companies in other industries. People think that the customer resources you have accumulated in recent years have been exhausted by P2P, and there is no potential to tap. Many P2P companies have lost their jobs, and they can't get compensation and wages for several months.
A personal credit business manager of Hangzhou Minsheng Bank told reporters that at the end of this year, the number of lenders who consulted about loan defaults increased significantly. "In recent months, most lenders have lost their jobs, and they called to ask about loan defaults. If it is a lender with good reputation, we feel that we still have the ability to repay the loan. After explaining the situation, we will generally postpone it. This year (loan default) is more than in previous years, and we feel that there are some specialities. "
Chasing profiteering is in vain.
In addition to people like Xu who lost their stable income because of the "middle-aged crisis", the losses of P2P, Bitcoin, stock market and investment also "locked" a number of real estate speculators.
I love Qi Fei, the manager of a store in Hangzhou, told reporters that during the P2P explosion, many investors hoped that he would help them find a suitable buyer. "Real estate speculators basically use houses to raise houses and leverage them with houses and income. Every income in their hands immediately becomes an expenditure, and the capital chain is very compact. One of my big clients, besides investing in real estate, also invested in P2P. As a result, P2P has a problem.
Qi Fei said that his major clients have sold all five suites to him at low prices, and two of them need his help to find reliable candidates for remortgage. "Although the price is much lower than the market price, it is still difficult to sell. Mortgaged houses are risky and have many disputes, so it is difficult to apply for loans. Property buyers are generally reluctant to accept such a house. If they can't sell it in another month or two, they will be out of supply. "
Liu Min said that in February of 20 17, he bought 6 million LET, which rose to more than 10 million in just a few days, and now there is only 1 million left. The reporter checked the price of Litecoin in Huobi. Com found that Litecoin soared from $76 to $369 in February 20 17, and then plummeted continuously. Now the price is less than 30 dollars.
Xu also told reporters that a large number of small and micro foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces had adverse reactions. "Especially some factories that make simple mechanical and electronic parts, as well as some factories that make plastic processing and textiles, many factories have stopped working. The owners of these factories, whose sideline is real estate investment, have made a circle of friends that has been cut off. The next day, many small bosses came to ask me what negative impact the supply cut would have, and they were also considering the supply cut. "
2065438+In July, 2008, the United States announced two rounds of tariff list for goods from China. The main businesses of small foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces-electromechanical audio-visual products, light textiles, furniture and bedding have become the focus of the tax increase list. Among them,12619 billion dollars of electromechanical audio-visual equipment was included in the list of two rounds of tax increase, which is expected to bring industry losses. According to the data released by Hangzhou Customs,1-1month, the export of mechanical and electrical products in Zhejiang Province accounted for 43.5% of the total export value of the province.
A business manager of China Merchants Bank, who is in charge of loans for small and micro enterprises, told the reporter, "Zhejiang Province has been promoting the adjustment of export trade structure in the past two years, and it is necessary to transform from simple processed products to high-tech products, so small and micro foreign trade enterprises that actually do simple processing are facing many challenges this year."
However, for the default caused by this, the business manager said frankly, "In fact, the number of mortgage defaults every year has increased to a certain extent this year compared with previous years. The proportion of individual housing loans in overdue loans has increased, which is mainly related to the economic situation this year. However, the overall non-performing rate of individual housing loans is still at a low level, not to mention the' default tide' that was rumored by the outside world. Just transferred from Shenzhen, the mortgage is still valued by banks in Shenzhen.
165438+ 10 month, an article entitled "The tide of supply is cut off! A large number of houses in Shenzhen are auctioned at a 30% discount! This article sparked a heated discussion. Subsequently, the relevant departments rumored that the sharp increase in the number of auction houses was due to the increased promotion of judicial online auctions during the year, and the number of online auction houses increased, rather than the surge in the number of people who stopped supplying.
The business manager of the personal credit department of Minsheng Bank said that whether there is a wave of loan default depends on the total amount of personal housing mortgage in loans overdue counted by major banks at the end of the year. However, from a business perspective, the number of real estate speculators who are willing to default has increased, and judging from the loans overdue rate of housing provident fund released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in recent years, the non-performing rate of commercial personal housing loans and housing provident fund loans is also increasing year by year.
The reporter looked up the annual report of the national housing provident fund released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 20 16 and 20 17, and found that the total amount of loans overdue provident fund in 20 1058 was 34.6%, up 34.6% year-on-year. At the same time, provident fund loans reached 953.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.493 billion yuan.
(Article source: Economic Observer)