First of all, the adjustment of interest rate directly faces the inflation risk. From June 5438 to February last year, CPI rose by 2.8% due to rising food prices. 1 increased by 2.2%, and the data in February showed that CPI increased by 2.7%. Coupled with the pressure of coal-fired power price adjustment and the pressure of potential oil price increase, inflation is obviously under upward pressure and may continue to rise. In order to maintain a stable environment for the "low inflation" operation of the economy, raising interest rates is conducive to adjusting the expectation of rising inflation in advance and preventing the inflation level from continuing to climb.
Second, facing liquidity risk. In recent years, the global excess liquidity and the import of foreign trade surplus have plagued the normal operation of China's economy, resulting in many unbalanced and uncoordinated contradictions, including over-investment, rapid growth of new bank loans, and containment of the independence of monetary policy. The adjustment of interest rate will help to coordinate with the adjustment of deposit reserve and the issuance of central bank bills, at the same time improve excess liquidity, promote the rebound of investment, bring instability to economic operation, and reduce the risk of new bad debt accumulation of banks.
Third, in the face of risks characterized by the accumulation of asset price bubbles. Since 1990s, the world economic crisis has been characterized by the bursting of the asset price bubble. The economic crisis in Japan and Southeast Asia was obviously triggered by the bursting of the asset price bubble. China is surrounded by the international environment formed by asset price bubbles, and the risk accumulation characteristics of asset price bubbles are very obvious. We cannot avoid the new risks in the global financial system driven by this globalization trend.
Under the current international and domestic financial characteristics and trends, the preventive effect of interest rates on asset price bubbles should not be underestimated. In fact, in the traditional anti-inflation monetary policy, the adjustment of interest rate sends a signal through the adjustment of benchmark interest rate, so that all market participants can adjust credit and investment according to the signal, and then adjust inflation. In this process, the interest rate first affects the capital price through the cost function, then affects the investment income, and finally affects the macroeconomic inflation level by adjusting the overall investment scale. In fact, monetary policy aims at inflation, and adjusting the price of funds is the most critical link. The change of capital price has changed the investment cost, investment behavior and investment scale, which not only stabilized the macroeconomic situation, but also carried out reasonable market-oriented resource allocation. Generally speaking, the low cost of capital is one of the important factors in the formation of asset price bubbles. When the risk of inflation becomes less obvious and the risk of asset price bubble becomes more and more prominent, the function of interest rate as the cost of capital may be highlighted. Monetary policy aims at inflation to prevent economic risks caused by economic ups and downs and economic cycle changes. When asset price bubble becomes the main crisis factor of economic ups and downs, the role of interest rate in restraining asset price bubble may be strengthened.
The central bank's interest rate adjustment this time is actually in the early stage of asset price bubble accumulation and risk formation. From the perspective of capital price, it is very timely and necessary to give necessary policy management and warning to prevent the accumulation and bursting of bubbles from causing economic crisis.
People are also worried that the adjustment of interest rates will encourage more capital inflows, especially hot money inflows, and further affect the irrational expansion of asset prices. In fact, since the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism, in order to prevent speculative capital from taking advantage of it, interest rate adjustment has been very cautious, deliberately maintaining a 3% spread with the US dollar to increase the opportunity cost of capital inflows. However, under the certain expectation of the current steady appreciation of RMB, just like the continuous appreciation of Japanese yen in that year, it has created an environment without exchange rate risk for capital inflow, prompting capital inflow without worries. The appreciation level of 5% or even higher, compared with the spread of 3% between the US dollar and RMB, exceeds the opportunity cost of the spread, and actually cannot stop the capital inflow. In particular, large-scale capital inflows pushed up asset prices. In 2006, China stock market rose 150%, and the profit of capital inflow greatly exceeded the spread of 3%. When the yen was forced to appreciate, the Japanese government's mistake in maintaining the low interest rate policy brought low capital gains to the low interest rate, which played an unrealistic role in preventing capital inflows. It completely ignored the attraction of the short-term huge benefits brought by the asset price bubble to the greedy and profit-seeking capital inflows, missed the opportunity of adjustment, and left space and opportunities for the bubble economy crisis.
Fourth, promote the process of interest rate marketization. China's interest rate system has a high degree of marketization. Except for the upper limit of deposit interest rate and the lower limit of loan interest rate, other interest rates can basically be adjusted by financial institutions themselves. The so-called interest rate marketization process that needs to be promoted is the bank's own ability to adjust according to the benchmark interest rate. The central bank's use of interest rate instruments is conducive to guiding banks' initiative in interest rate adjustment, increasing banks' sensitivity to interest rates and promoting the process of interest rate marketization at the operational level. The full opening of the banking industry also makes the central bank pay more attention to marketization in the use of monetary policy tools.
As for the increase of the benchmark interest rate for loans and the deposit interest rate by the same margin, it is reasonable from the perspective of raising the cost of capital. However, according to the arrangement of the interest rate system, the upper limit of the loan interest rate is completely liberalized. In other words, the adjustment of the loan ceiling allows banks to adjust themselves, which is the most critical place to cultivate banks' independent interest rate pricing ability. The central bank raised the loan interest rate together instead of bank pricing. In addition to protecting the spread income of banks, it is also not conducive to the change of bank profit model and the marketization of interest rates. But at least it will not affect the spread income of banks. It takes a process for banks to move towards interest rate marketization. I hope that the adjustment of loan interest rate can be left to the bank for decision at the next interest rate adjustment.
Because this is the first interest rate adjustment this year, and it has only changed by 27 basis points. We believe that this interest rate adjustment has a greater impact on all aspects, including the securities market, or that the role of the signal is greater than the substantive impact. But this time, the information conveyed by the signal is far more complicated than in the past. To achieve the goal of interest rate policy, it is by no means a small adjustment can be completed. The market should pay full attention to the risk changes in all aspects of the market, and does not rule out the possibility of the central bank adjusting interest rates according to the situation.