202 1 does the bank want to completely suspend mortgage loans?
It will be an inevitable trend for banks to tighten their mortgages.
Tightening mortgage is mainly to prevent more funds from flowing into the real estate market, resulting in a housing price bubble. In the long run, if people have less money to buy a house and the demand for supply and demand decreases, then house prices will naturally fall, which is one of the reasons why banks tighten their mortgages.
The bank's total suspension of mortgage loans has not been officially confirmed, but the possibility of bank tightening mortgage loans in an all-round way on 20021indicates that the possibility of tightening mortgage loans for borrowers who buy more than two suites in 2002 is gradually increasing, and the trend of tightening mortgage loans in the future will be very obvious. The central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stipulate that developers must be below the "three regulatory red lines" standard if they want to raise funds. The supervision of developers has begun to tighten, and personal mortgages will also be tightened simultaneously.
The top management of the central bank once wrote an article in Qiushi magazine, clearly pointing out that the real estate bubble is the biggest "grey rhinoceros" threatening financial security. Wu Xiaoling, former deputy governor of the central bank, even bluntly said that the days of revelry in the bubble are running out, and we should be prepared after the ebb tide. Previously, domestic banks relaxed their mortgage loans mainly because of the epidemic in the first half of this year, but now the domestic economy has got rid of the impact of the epidemic. We should pay more attention to the recovery of the real economy next year. At present, the risks of the property market are increasing everywhere, and it is risky for a large amount of mortgage funds to enter the real estate industry. Even if banks completely suspend mortgage loans, they should not be surprised.
If banks completely suspend mortgage loans, will house prices fall? First of all, if there is no leverage to buy a house, the house price in first-tier cities will not be tens of millions/set. Because, now everyone is playing around, playing with mortgage leverage, and most ordinary people have limited funds, and house prices can't be speculated at all. If the bank completely suspends mortgage loans, only 10% of people can buy a house in full, and another 90% will buy a house through loans. Don't say that banks completely suspend mortgage loans, even if they tighten the scale of mortgage loans, raise the threshold of mortgage loans and reduce the leverage of mortgage loans, they will not be able to support high housing prices, so housing prices will inevitably fall in the future.
The total market value of real estate in China is 65 trillion US dollars, far exceeding the total market value of 62 trillion US dollars in Europe, America and Japan. Whether there is a bubble in real estate is self-evident.
The decision-makers of the central bank also know that it is too risky to continue to maintain high housing prices in some hot cities. Therefore, the biggest possibility of 202 1 is that, on the one hand, it will encourage buyers who just need to buy houses in the market, on the other hand, it will prevent the mortgage demand of more than two buyers, at least the cost and threshold of speculative real estate speculation will rise sharply. At the same time, banks should also consider the risks of mortgage loans and take the initiative to tighten the scale of mortgage loans next year.
202 1 time of mortgage lending by major banks
1, provident fund loan
This kind of audit method is slow and the process is complicated. Moreover, many developers have stopped accepting provident fund loans because of their slow payment. Therefore, the lending time of this housing loan is very slow. Generally, it takes about 1-2 months to lend money. If you slow down, it may take about half a year.
2. Commercial loans
This method will be faster than the approval of provident fund loans. However, due to national policies, inflationary pressures and excess liquidity, the central bank has continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio, so the monthly bank loan amount is limited. Even if approved, it may be necessary to queue up for loans for various reasons.
At the end of 2020, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Establishing a Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions. Generally speaking, it will mainly involve the amount of housing loans and the interest rate of mortgage loans. The mortgage interest rate will rise slightly in a short period of time, but then it will gradually decline as a whole, and the mortgage amount will definitely shrink a lot.
The notice was implemented from 202 1 1, and the central bank set a red line for the scale of real estate loans. Among all loans of banks, the proportion of real estate loans cannot exceed a certain value. In all bank loans, the proportion of individual housing loans cannot exceed a certain value.
The amount of bank loans has been limited, making it more difficult for buyers to apply for loans. At present, a number of banks have announced the suspension of loan applications, and a number of banks have already experienced tight loan quotas, and announced that they will extend the loan time. Even some small banks will raise the loan interest rate in order to control the loan application.
The above is the related content of "202 1 whether banks will completely suspend mortgage loans" compiled by Bian Xiao.