Question 2: In general, what factors will affect the rise and fall of the currency exchange rate? After some efforts, I seem to have some understanding of the ups and downs of the foreign exchange market. In order to make money in the foreign exchange market, we must first know which factors and indicators are affecting the change of exchange rate, that is to say, from which information do we find the clues of exchange rate fluctuations? According to my own study and observation, I have the following points: 1. Monetary policy When the central bank thinks that the intervention in the foreign exchange market is effective and the intervention result will be consistent with the monetary policy of * * *, the central bank's participation in the foreign exchange market will affect the exchange rate. The participation of the central bank is usually to stabilize the local currency at a level that is considered true and ideal by buying or selling the local currency. The judgment of other market participants on monetary policy, the impact on the exchange rate and the expectation of future policies will also have an impact on the exchange rate. 2. Political situation If the global situation tends to be tense, it will lead to instability in the foreign exchange market, abnormal inflow or outflow of some currencies, and the final possible result will be large fluctuations in the exchange rate. The stability of political situation is related to the stability of currency. Generally speaking, the more stable a country's political situation, the more stable its currency. For example, during the Kosovo war, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell by 10% for three consecutive months. One of the reasons was that the Kosovo war brought downward pressure on the euro. 3. Balance of payments A country's balance of payments will lead to fluctuations in its local currency exchange rate. The balance of payments is a summary of all foreign economic and financial relations of a country's residents. A country's balance of payments reflects its economic status in the world and also affects its macro-and micro-economic operation. In the final analysis, the impact of the balance of payments situation is the impact of foreign exchange supply and demand on the exchange rate. If foreign exchange income exceeds expenditure, foreign exchange supply will increase; If foreign exchange expenditure exceeds income, the demand for foreign exchange will increase. The increase of foreign exchange supply, under the condition of constant demand, directly leads to the decline of foreign exchange price and the corresponding increase of local currency value; When the demand for foreign exchange increases, the price of foreign exchange will rise directly and the value of local currency will drop accordingly under the condition of constant supply. 4. Interest rate When the dominant interest rate of one country rises or falls relative to that of another country, in order to pursue a higher return on capital, it will sell currencies with low interest rates and buy currencies with high interest rates. As the demand for a currency with a relatively high interest rate increases, the currency will appreciate against other currencies. Over the years, the free flow of funds and the abolition of foreign exchange controls have been the general trend. This trend has greatly facilitated the free flow of international short-term hot money (sometimes called "hot money"). It should be pointed out that investors will transfer their funds to regions or countries with high interest rates only when they think that changes in exchange rates will not offset the returns brought by high interest rates. 5. Market Judgment In addition to the above factors, we still remember that the foreign exchange market does not always follow the logical change pattern. Unknown factors, such as personal feelings and judgments, as well as the analysis and understanding of various global political and economic events, all affect the exchange rate, which requires us to correctly understand various reported or published data, such as foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data, inflation indicators, economic growth rate and so on. In fact, before the above-mentioned reports or data were made public to the market, the market had already expected or judged the essence reflected by the reports or data. This expectation or judgment will be reflected in the price before the report or data is made public. Once there are real reports or data that are quite different from people's expectations or judgments, it will lead to large fluctuations in the exchange rate. It is not enough for investors to correctly understand various economic indicators and data. We must know what kind of expectations and judgments the market will make on unpublished indicators and data. 6. The speculation of the main operators in the speculative market is also an important factor affecting the exchange rate. In the foreign exchange market, the proportion of transactions directly related to international trade is relatively low. Most transactions are speculative, which will lead to the flow of different currencies, thus affecting the exchange rate. When people analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate changes, they come to the conclusion that the exchange rate of a certain currency will rise and compete with it, so the rise of the currency will become a reality. On the other hand, when people expect a certain currency to fall, they will compete to sell, which will lead to a fall in the exchange rate.
Question 3: What is the relationship between the rise and fall of foreign exchange? Foreign exchange is the currency exchange situation of various countries. There are many factors that affect the rise and fall of this exchange, but there are two main ones: 1 is the economic situation of the currency country. For example, the economic figures released by the United States today prove that the US economy is growing well, then the US dollar index will rise, and the corresponding US dollar will be beneficial to exchange with other countries' currencies. The second is the monetary policy of the currency country. If a currency country issues a large amount of money, then the currency of this country will be.
Question 4: What are the main factors that affect the exchange rate? The exchange rate always goes up and down. There are many factors that affect the exchange rate, but to sum up, there are mainly the following.
Species:
1. The economic growth rate of a country. This is the most basic factor affecting exchange rate fluctuations. According to the macroscopic classical theory of Keynesian school
According to economic theory, the growth of GNP will lead to the growth of national income and expenditure. The increase in income will lead to the demand for imported products.
Seek expansion, then expand foreign exchange demand and promote the depreciation of the local currency. And the increase in expenditure means social investment and consumption.
Increase, is conducive to promoting the development of production, improve the international competitiveness of products, * * * export to increase foreign exchange supply. So from
In the long run, economic growth will lead to the appreciation of the local currency. From this perspective, the impact of economic growth on the exchange rate is complex. But if
Considering the role of currency preservation, exchange psychology has another explanation. In other words, the value of money depends on both foreign exchange supply and demand.
The subjective evaluation of currency, in contrast to the exchange rate. And a country's economic development is in good condition, so the main
The outlook is relatively optimistic, and the country's currency is strong.
2. Balance of payments. This is the most direct factor affecting the exchange rate. On the influence of international payments on exchange rate
As early as 65438+60s, Gehlsen, an Englishman, made a detailed exposition, and later, the portfolio theory was also mentioned.
The so-called balance of payments is simply the import and export of goods and services and the input and output of capital. In the balance of payments
If exports exceed imports, capital inflows mean that the demand for the country's currency in the international market increases and the local currency rises. On the other hand, if imports exceed exports and capital flows out, the demand for the country's currency in the international market will drop and the local currency will depreciate.
3. The difference between the price level and the inflation level. Under the paper money system, the exchange rate is fundamentally replaced by money.
The actual value of the table. According to the purchasing power evaluation, the parity of currency purchasing power is the currency exchange rate. If a country
The high price level and high inflation rate indicate that the decline in the purchasing power of local currency will lead to the depreciation of local currency. On the contrary, it tends to
As a token of gratitude.
4. Differences in interest rate levels. All the theories of monetary school discuss the role of interest rate in exchange rate fluctuation. but
The most clear explanation is the interest rate evaluation theory that rose after the 1970s. This theory is easy to explain in the short to medium term.
Changes in exchange rates. The influence of interest rate on exchange rate is mainly realized through the influence on arbitrage capital flow. Gentle communication
Under commodity inflation, higher interest rates will attract the inflow of foreign funds, at the same time restrain domestic demand, reduce imports and make the local currency appreciate.
Tall man. However, under severe inflation, interest rates are negatively correlated with exchange rates.
5. People's psychological expectations. This factor is particularly prominent in the current international financial market. Exchange psychology
It is considered that the exchange rate of foreign exchange is a concentrated expression of the subjective psychological evaluation of money by both foreign exchange supply and demand sides. High evaluation, strong confidence and genuine goods.
Currency appreciation. This theory plays a vital role in explaining short-term or extremely short-term exchange rate fluctuations.
In addition, factors that affect exchange rate fluctuations include * * * * monetary and exchange rate policies, emergencies and international speculation.
Influence, the release of economic data and even the remarks of powerful people. These factors will also reinforce each other or offset each other.
Eliminate.
Question 5: What are the main factors that affect the foreign exchange rate? Generally speaking, the combined effect of the following seven factors will affect the exchange rate:
(1) balance of payments
A country's balance of payments can reflect its foreign exchange supply and demand. When a country has a balance of payments deficit, it reflects that its demand for foreign exchange is greater than its supply, which will lead to an increase in the exchange rate of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, that is, a decrease in the exchange rate of local currency. On the contrary, a country's balance of payments surplus will lead to a decline in the foreign exchange rate and an increase in the local currency exchange rate. The balance of payments includes trade balance, service balance and capital flow.
inflation
According to purchasing power parity, inflation is the most important basic factor affecting exchange rate changes. The transmission mechanism of its influence on exchange rate includes: first, if the inflation rate of a country is higher than that of other countries, the export competitiveness of that country will be weakened, while the competitiveness of foreign goods in that country's market will be enhanced; This will cause the country's trade deficit and the gap between foreign exchange supply and demand, which will lead to the decline of the local currency exchange rate. Second, inflation will reduce a country's real interest rate, promote capital flight, and cause a capital account deficit and a decline in the local currency exchange rate. Third, because inflation is a process of rising prices, people's inflation expectations will evolve into expectations of the decline of the local currency exchange rate. Under this expectation, in order to avoid the possible losses caused by the devaluation of the local currency, people will sell their local currency and buy foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market. This speculation will lead to a further decline in the exchange rate of the local currency.
(3) Interest rate
In the short term, the impact of interest rate on exchange rate is extremely significant. The transmission mechanism of its influence on exchange rate includes: first, under the premise of other conditions unchanged, the rise of interest rate will attract capital inflows, form demand for the country's currency in the foreign exchange market, and promote the exchange rate of high-interest currencies to rise. There are a lot of international hot money in the contemporary international financial market, which is extremely sensitive to the change of interest rate, so in the short term, inducing international capital flow is the main way for interest rate to affect exchange rate. Second, rising interest rates means a credit crunch, which will curb the country's inflation. In a certain period of time, the exchange rate of the domestic currency can be promoted by exporting and restricting imports. Third, rising interest rates will curb the country's total demand, especially the part of investment demand and consumer demand that relies heavily on loans, which will further restrict imports and help the country's currency exchange rate rise.
economic growth
Other things being equal, economic growth driven by domestic demand growth will lead to an increase in imports. If the economic growth of other countries is slow, the export growth of that country is also slow. This can easily lead to a deficit in the country's trade balance and a fall in the country's currency exchange rate.
If economic growth is caused by the improvement of labor productivity in this country, then in the process of growth, production costs will fall, product prices will fall and product quality will improve. Although the country's imports will increase accordingly, its currency exchange rate tends to rise due to the rapid growth of exports.
(5) Policy * * *
* * * Policies will directly or indirectly affect the exchange rate through various channels.
* * * The direct form of intervention in exchange rate is to change the relationship between supply and demand of foreign exchange by buying and selling foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market through the central bank, thus affecting the foreign exchange rate or the local currency exchange rate. * * * The purpose of adopting exchange rate policy is generally to stabilize the local currency exchange rate, avoid exchange rate fluctuations from increasing risks in international trade and international financial activities, and curb foreign exchange speculation; It may also be that the exchange rate is beneficial to the national economic development or helps to achieve a strategic goal. * * * The effectiveness of exchange rate policy depends not only on the country's foreign exchange reserves, but also on the country's macroeconomic situation. For example, if the country's financial bubble bursts and the stock and real estate prices fall sharply, there may be capital flight, which will lead to the devaluation of the country's currency. Once the depreciation pressure exceeds the intervention ability of * * *, the local currency exchange rate begins to decline, which further induces a larger capital flight through the expectation of depreciation, and the country falls into a vicious circle.
When the central bank's participation in foreign exchange market transactions is not enough to achieve the exchange rate policy objectives, * * * often intervenes in the exchange rate by means of foreign exchange control.
* * * Other economic policies will also indirectly affect the exchange rate. For example, expansionary fiscal policy will increase demand and economic growth, which will bring the pressure of foreign currency depreciation by increasing imports. Tight monetary policy will raise the exchange rate of domestic currency by curbing inflation and raising interest rates. The trade policy of * * * can drive the foreign appreciation of the local currency through import and export restrictions of * * *.
(6) Psychological expectation
People's psychological expectations of various price signals will affect the exchange rate. If people expect the exchange rate of local currency to fall, they may sell their local currency in the foreign exchange market, which will encourage the depreciation pressure of local currency. If people expect their country's inflation rate to be high, they will expect foreign countries to depreciate their currencies. Usually ... >>
Question 6: What are the influencing factors of foreign exchange rate? Gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the total value of all final products and services produced by a country in a certain period of time. Reflecting a country's overall economic situation is closely related to economic growth, which is regarded as "the most comprehensive economic dynamic indicator" by most western economists.
Industrial production: refers to the total value of all industrial products produced by industrial production departments in a certain period of time. It accounts for a large proportion of GDP.
Unemployment rate: a barometer of economic development, closely related to the economic cycle. The increase in data indicates that economic development is hindered, and vice versa.
International trade is an important part of economic activities. When a country's exports exceed its imports, it is called a trade surplus; On the contrary, it is called a deficit.
Current account revenue and expenditure: the current account is the main item in a country's balance sheet, which records the outflow and inflow of funds between a country and foreign countries, including the import and export of goods/services, investment income, income from other goods and services and unilateral transfer. If it is positive, it is a surplus, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the other hand, it is not conducive to the national currency.
Capital account revenue and expenditure: mainly describes a country's long-term and short-term capital flows, including long-term capital, illiquid short-term private capital, special drawing rights, errors and omissions, and liquid short-term private capital.
Interest rate: interest rate is the return of borrowed funds or the cost of using funds. A country's interest rate has a direct impact on the currency exchange rate. Because of the high yield, the demand for money with high interest rate rises and the exchange rate appreciates; On the contrary, it depreciates.
Producer price index (PPI): It mainly measures the price changes of various commodities in different production stages. Rising data show that production is booming, inflation is likely to rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not conducive to the dollar.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): The price change index based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives is the most important data when discussing inflation. As the data rises, inflation may rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not good for the dollar.
Wholesale price index (WPI): It is a price index compiled according to the weighted average price of bulk materials. Products included include raw materials, intermediate products, final products and import and export products, but do not include various services.
Leading indicator: It is composed of stock price, consumer goods orders, weekly number of people applying for unemployment benefits, number of building approvals, consumer expectations, changes in delivery orders of manufacturers, money supply, sales performance, changes in prices of sensitive raw materials, orders for factory equipment and average working week, and is an indicator for observing economic trends in the next 6- 12 months. Good data, rising exchange rate; On the contrary, it will fall.
Personal income: represents the sum of personal income obtained from various income sources. Including wages and salaries, social welfare, expenditure and savings, dividend income, etc. The increase in data means that the economy is improving and consumption may increase, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable.
Inventory: including factory inventory, wholesale inventory and retail inventory. Mainly used to evaluate the production cycle. If the inventory is lower than the appropriate level, it will increase production, improve the economy and benefit the currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable. The data is compiled by the US Department of Commerce and released at 2 1: 30 or 23: 00 in the middle of each month.
Purchasing management index: an important index to measure manufacturing industry. Investigate manufacturing industry from production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports.
Durable goods orders: Durable goods refer to goods that are not easily worn, such as heavy industrial products such as automobiles and airplanes and manufacturing capital goods.
Capacity utilization ratio: it is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. It covers eight projects including production, mining, public utilities, durable goods, non-durable goods, basic metal industry, automobile and minivan industry and gasoline.
Housing operating rate: Generally speaking, there are two types of new housing construction, individual housing and group housing. Operating rate of new houses and buildings >>
Question 7: The rise and fall of foreign exchange is essentially determined by the relationship between supply and demand, which has many manifestations, such as the open market operation of the central bank, political factors, psychological expectations, market supply and demand, etc. For example, the recent well-known debt crisis in the euro zone led to a sharp depreciation of the currencies of the countries where the crisis occurred. In order to keep their money from depreciating, people have to buy gold or dollars, which makes the prices of gold and dollars rise. For example, the earthquake you mentioned will definitely have an impact on the national economy. Around the world, the exchange rate of currencies will change. If the earthquake hits a country's economy hard, leading to a sharp decline in the country's economy, then naturally the country's currency will depreciate, and people will turn their monetary assets to the gold market, thus causing the price of gold to rise.
Question 8: What is the relationship between the rise and fall of foreign exchange and the factors affecting foreign exchange?
1, balance of payments
The balance of payments is a comprehensive reflection of a country's foreign economic activities and has a direct impact on the changes of a country's currency exchange rate. Moreover, from the perspective of foreign exchange market transactions, international trade in goods and services constitutes the basis of foreign exchange transactions, which also determines the basic trend of the exchange rate.
2. The difference of inflation rate.
Inflation is a long-term, major and regular factor affecting exchange rate changes. Under the condition of paper money circulation, the ratio between the currencies of the two countries is basically determined according to the comparative relationship between the values they represent. Therefore, in the case of inflation in a country, the value represented by its currency will decrease, its actual purchasing power will also decrease, and its foreign exchange rate will also decrease.
3, the difference of economic growth rate
Other things being equal, when a country's economy grows at a high speed and investment opportunities increase, O will attract a lot of foreign investment, which will strengthen its currency and increase its exchange rate. This will increase the country's demand for foreign goods and services, so the country's demand for foreign exchange tends to increase relative to its available foreign exchange supply, leading to a decline in the currency exchange rate.
4. Interest rate difference
Interest rate will affect the attractiveness of a country's financial assets. The rise of a country's interest rate will make its financial assets more attractive to domestic and foreign investors, which will lead to the inflow of capital and the appreciation of exchange rate. Of course, we should also consider the relative difference between one country's interest rate and that of other countries. If one country's interest rate rises, but other countries also rise by the same amount, the exchange rate will generally not be affected. If one country's interest rate rises, but other countries' interest rates rise faster, then this country's interest rate will fall relatively, and its exchange rate will tend to fall.
5. Financial revenue and expenditure
* * * * financial revenue and expenditure is often used as the main indicator of the country's currency exchange rate forecast. When a country has a fiscal deficit, whether its currency exchange rate rises or falls mainly depends on the measures that the country chooses to make up for the fiscal deficit.
6. Psychological expectation factors
In the foreign exchange market, whether people buy or sell a certain currency has a lot to do with traders' views on the future. When traders expect that the exchange rate of a currency may fall in the future, in order to avoid losses or gain extra benefits, they will throw out a lot of this currency, and when they expect that a currency may rise in the future, they will buy a lot of this currency.
7.* * * Intervention factors
Exchange rate fluctuations will have an important impact on a country's economy. At present, in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market and maintain healthy economic development, countries (central banks) often intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Question 9: What are the factors that affect the rise and fall of the Canadian dollar exchange rate? The Canadian dollar exchange rate is closely related to oil prices. Oil prices are still at a low point. In addition, Canada's neighbor, the US economy, is basically good, which is also an impact on the Canadian dollar. Therefore, the Canadian dollar will continue to depreciate in the future.
Question 10: What are the factors that affect the rise and fall of the US dollar index? What affects the rise and fall of the dollar index is the American economy, or trust in the United States. It can be regarded as the same variety as commodity futures. At present, it is possible for the dollar to get out of the long-term rising market. But in the end, the dollar certainly lost its scenery at that time.