The annual "High-Level Report on China's Economic Situation Analysis" hosted by the Information Center of the Development Research Center of the State Council concluded successfully on November 30 at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing. Du Nanping, Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Far East Holding Group and CEO of Jiangsu New Far East Cable Co., Ltd., attended this meeting as a special guest.

Guests attending this annual meeting include:

Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and famous economist,

Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Director and Director of the National Energy Administration Zhang Baoguo,

Deputy Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council Shao Ning,

Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China Su Ning,

Vice Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission Jiang Determined,

Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council Liu Shijin,

Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics Yao Jingyuan,

Vice President of the Institute of Macroeconomics of the National Development and Reform Commission Wang Yiming, etc.,

Young economist Dr. Ha Jiming of CICC,

Zhuang Jian of Asian Development Bank,

Qi Bin, director of the Research Center of China Securities Regulatory Commission,

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Sixteen guests including Wang Xiaoguang of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Economic Institute and Long Guoqiang of the National Research Center gave speeches one after another.

2008 was a year in which the economic situation at home and abroad was extremely complex and rapidly changing. In the first half of the year, our country suffered from rain, snow and ice disasters, the Wenchuan earthquake and the US subprime mortgage crisis. However, under the timely and effective policy control of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, our country's economy successfully withstood the impact and impact of various adverse factors in the first half of the year, and the national economy still maintained a good momentum of steady growth. Since entering the second half of the year, affected by unfavorable factors such as the cyclical correction of the domestic economy and the international financial crisis, my country's economic growth has shown an acceleration of correction. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was only 9, which was 2.9 percentage points lower than the 11.9 GDP growth rate in 2007. Compared with the first half of 2008, the growth rate was 10.4, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points. In particular, there has been a sharp acceleration in the correction of industrial added value. In October, the growth rate was only 8.2, which was 10.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate of 18.5 in the same period of 2007. The economic situation is quite severe.

In view of the current severe economic situation, relevant leaders and economic experts gave authoritative and forward-looking speeches with the theme of "interpreting China's economic situation and leading the healthy development of enterprises". Du Nanping, Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Far East Holding Group, and Gan Xingzhong, Technical Director of Far East Cable Company respectively communicated with the leaders and relevant economists at the meeting, and discussed how to enable enterprises to develop healthily and rapidly in light of the current economic situation, and achieved remarkable results. Satisfactory results.

Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the Energy Bureau, said that in the future, the power industry will continue to increase its efforts to "increase the big and suppress the small". It is possible to eliminate small units of 100,000 kilowatts, expand the first level, and suppress the small. scope.

Cheng Siwei: Good morning, comrades and friends!

Today I would like to explain two points before I speak: First, I am discussing with you the issue of economic development next year as a scholar. When it comes to economic forecasting, frankly speaking, I am not accurate, because if it is accurate, I will become a god. But without forecasting, it is absolutely impossible, because without forecasting, there is no direction.

I will mainly talk about three issues today: First, given the world financial crisis, when will the crisis be over? My view is that the world economy will recover in 2010 and I will discuss this issue.

The second is that 2009 will be the most difficult year for our country’s economy.

The third is that we all work together to overcome the difficulties and ensure the stable and rapid development of our economy.

First of all, the Wall Street storm caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development of this process, the large number, and the huge impact can be said to be unexpected by people. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: The first is the debt crisis, which is the problem caused by the inability to repay the principal and interest on time when borrowing a housing loan. The second stage is the liquidity crisis.

Due to the debt crisis, some financial institutions are unable to have sufficient liquidity in a timely manner to meet the liquidity requirements of creditors. The third stage is the credit crisis. That is to say, people have doubts about their financial activities based on credit, causing such a crisis. Generally speaking, there are three stages.

The first stage is caused by subprime mortgages, which is to lend loans to people who cannot meet the conditions. There are two reasons why the loans are unacceptable: one is a bad credit record, and the other is insufficient repayment ability. The reason why we lend to such people is because real estate prices in the United States have risen sharply since 2002 and interest rates are relatively low. Therefore, under this situation, the U.S. government has relaxed controls on loans, including no down payment and only interest payments for the first two years. There is no principal repayment, and the interest payment angle is fixed interest rate for the first two years and floating interest rate thereafter, and the qualifications of the lender are not strictly reviewed, etc. The U.S. government and congressmen say that everyone should have a house to live in, so they encourage banks to issue subprime mortgages. In this case, banks dare to lend and borrowers dare to borrow. Why do banks dare to lend? Because real estate prices are rising, if I cannot repay the loan after I borrow it, I will take the house back and auction it. The price at the auction may be higher than the price I loaned to them, so I will not suffer a loss. Why do borrowers dare to borrow? He also considered that if I could not repay the loan on my house, I would not suffer a loss if I transferred the house and sold it because house prices are rising. This is the point. In addition, after I take possession of the house, I can take the house to the bank for mortgage, get cash, and do other things. Therefore, with government encouragement, bankers dare to lend, and borrowers dare to borrow, subprime mortgages in the United States have developed into a huge trend.

From the perspective of the U.S. financial system, the U.S. does not collect the principal and interest of the loan from the bank loan borrower beforehand. Why? It wants to obtain liquidity and spread risks, that is, the loaned money will be repaid with principal and interest every year for 20 to 30 years. My money has been pressed for too long, so I want to obtain liquidity quickly. In addition, it also spreads risks, so the United States wants asset securitization or mortgage securitization, which means that banks package the loans and sell them to independent institutions, and then these institutions sell them to mortgage institutions. Mortgage institutions include Freddie Mac or Investment banks and so on. These mortgage institutions and investment banks issue bonds called MBS. After they are packaged and sold, the bank takes the money back. The bonds pay interest on schedule, and the interest rate is relatively high because it is a stable cash flow.

In order to reassure investors, insurance companies are involved to do two things: one is to increase credit, which is actually a form of guarantee. The other is to issue CDS for insurance. CDS is actually a swap in the event of a credit default. In other words, it is a debt credit swap. If there is a default, it will be responsible for compensation, so this is the nature of insurance. We see that financial companies in the United States are a chain, that is, banks lend loans to borrowers, mortgage institutions and investment banks provide liquidity to banks to issue bonds, and insurance companies provide insurance and credit enhancement. Therefore, subprime mortgage defaults alone will not have such a big impact. Once real estate prices fall, the risk will amplify along the chain. Therefore, when interest rates began to increase in the United States in 2006 and real estate prices fell, risks were gradually exposed. Of course, the first thing that is exposed is that the borrower cannot repay the loan. He has defaulted. If he defaults, he will not receive the money to pay the interest on the bond. This will cause a debt crisis, because bonds are different from stocks. Stocks are free of charge. Risk-taking, bonds require repayment of principal and interest on schedule. Therefore, this created such a debt crisis.

So it caused a crisis for mortgage institutions and investment banks. So we can say this is the first phase.

The risk amplifies along the way, and insurance companies and so on are involved, because for example, insurance companies will definitely make money when the default rate is very low, because if you collect premiums and compensation, the premium will definitely be higher than the compensation. , when the default rate increases, it will be impossible for you, and problems will occur. Another rule in the United States is rating agencies. If the rating agency questions your credit, you will have more problems and people will not believe you.

Therefore, a liquidity crisis developed in the second stage, that is, insurance companies did not have enough money, investment banks did not have enough money to pay the principal and interest of bonds, and insurance companies did not have enough money to pay insurance claims. This creates a liquidity crisis.

So you can see that in general, from the earliest problems occurred in New Era Company in 2006, Fannie and Freddie went bankrupt. Three major events occurred within three days on September 15th and 16th. Merrill Lynch was acquired, and Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy, coupled with an emergency request from the government. The confidence of the people was greatly affected, so from September onwards, it evolved into a crisis of confidence. The essence of the confidence crisis is a crisis of credit and trust, which means that people no longer trust financial institutions, the financial system, and even the government. Under such circumstances, the crisis will spread and spread rapidly. Because Europe has also bought a lot of financial derivatives that are not available in CDOs and CDSs, which are derivatives based on housing loans.

It is now understood that the nominal issuance of CDS around the world is 33.5 trillion yuan, which is quite impressive, and of course it is insured. The U.S. bond market has shrunk significantly, and CDOs have dropped by almost 85%, thus causing the crisis to spread around the world. On the one hand, this diffusion is wide-ranging, and on the other hand, it will inevitably affect the real economy. Therefore, the most affected is actually real estate, and the second is automobiles. Therefore, the three major American automobile companies are all facing a huge crisis. Of course, I’m not talking about this today, so I can’t go into details. From the perspective of virtual economy, what is the problem? It lies in the rapid expansion of virtual capital. Marx said in Capital that this kind of financial products were established based on credit capital and the credit system, including bonds, stocks, commercial papers, etc., which are all a kind of fictitious capital. Why is it called virtual capital? What you get is a promise. Nowadays, there is no electronic paper anymore. It is a promise. It promises to repay you the principal and interest when it is due. For bonds, or the promise to pay when it is due, these are all promises.

Then, once the promise cannot be fulfilled, you will cause losses. So the promise you get is a virtual capital. This will expand. Why does it expand? Marx gave an example in Capital. Businessman A orders a batch of goods from a manufacturer through middleman B. The manufacturer orders a batch of goods as C and the businessman in India is D. If the contract is 1 million, once the contract is signed, three contracts will be signed. B and C will sign one contract, then businessman A will sign a contract with middleman B, and businessman A will sign a contract with its customer D in India. After these three contracts, you can get a loan from the bank. Producer C can get a loan from the bank. With the contract, because there is a contract, the other party will pay me 1 million for the products produced in six months, so I need money now to buy raw materials and hire workers. people. Middleman B can also borrow from the bank with the contract, because businessman A entrusts me with 1 million to pay to C in the future. Businessman A can also get a loan from the bank based on the contract signed by D, which means that D in India promises to buy our product worth 1 million. Indian businessman D can also get a loan from the bank because he already has the other party's commitment to deliver the goods. Of course, you can't borrow 1 million, but you can do a business of 4 yuan for 1 yuan, which is generally the case. We call it leverage. Until now, finance has been a barrier to the high leverage ratio when it was developed, especially in the United States and European countries with developed financial systems, where the leverage ratio has been highly expanded. The leverage ratio of general commercial banks can already reach 10-12, and the leverage ratio of investment banks can reach 30-40, or even higher. For example, Lehman Brothers has reached 45, and Fannie and Freddie have the support of the government, so their leverage ratio is as high as 62.5. So in this case, if everyone keeps their word, there will be no problem, and the time difference can be used to make good use of the money. , it is true that benefits can be achieved, but once real estate prices drop and credit is destroyed, the contradiction will be exposed. Because there is not so much money to support it, so it cannot be paid, and problems will arise. Lehman Brothers' own assets are only US$20 billion, but its assets and liabilities are more than 40 times its lending rate, which is almost US$1 trillion. That’s why we say that fictitious capital was highly inflated and finally collapsed due to the credit crisis.

The impact here is huge, because the entire financial system in the United States and Europe is based on such a foundation, so once it collapses, the impact will be considerable. And where is the biggest impact? If people don’t believe in credit, what problems will arise? Even if I don't want to lend money to others, I don't want to buy bills, bonds, or stocks, so the stocks of many automobile companies have plummeted. In this case, the economy will inevitably shrink significantly. In this case, it caused such a financial crisis and caused a global financial crisis. The financial crisis is still spreading to the real economy. Therefore, next year it can be said that the world economy will experience a rare decline or even recession in decades. Condition.

As for the world economic situation next year, I have exchanged opinions with some experts at home and abroad. I have also participated in meetings abroad in recent months to discuss some issues with them.

As for the economy next year, it goes without saying that it is relatively pessimistic. I have always looked at the situation next year from a cautiously optimistic perspective. The economy of the United States and Europe next year may be 0 to 1. In the United States, growth was 0.9 in the first quarter of this year, 2.9 in the second quarter, but negative 0.9 in the third quarter, indicating negative growth. The originally announced 0.3 was later actually 0.5, and there will definitely be negative growth in the fourth quarter. According to the general definition, two consecutive quarters of negative growth can be said to be a recession. It is estimated that the United States may have four quarters of negative growth, and it will not resume positive growth until the second half of next year. If they offset each other, the U.S. economic growth rate next year may be 0. European people's estimate is probably less than 1.

As we all know, the GDP of the United States and Europe accounts for the majority of the world. The United States accounts for 1/4 and Europe accounts for 30%, so the two of them together account for 50-60%. Next year it is estimated that the growth rate of emerging market countries and developing countries will be around 5. So next year the situation will probably be like this. Therefore, the world economy will decline significantly next year, but because of the support of developing countries, it will not be said to be negative growth, but the decline will be relatively strong. According to general estimates, from the second half of next year to the first half of the next year, there will probably be no negative growth, but it will still be a very slow growth.

As a relatively cautious optimist, after these analyses, I said in Guangzhou that the world economy would recover in 2010. The APEC leaders’ meeting on the 23rd issued a statement that the financial crisis could be resolved within 18 months. The end, the end does not mean that it will rise immediately, so I estimate that it will be 24 months, that is, the world economy will recover around 2010. The so-called recovery means that the economy begins to grow relatively quickly in a positive direction. Therefore, the world will be in the coldest two years next year and the year after that. This is my first conclusion.

Second, looking at China, my opinion is that next year will be our most difficult year. Why? Because with the economic globalization, the economies of various countries in the world are becoming more and more interdependent, so the impact of the financial crisis on the United States and Europe will sooner or later have an impact on us. At the beginning of the financial year, there was a big speech conference in Davos. Because they didn’t have one person sitting on the podium like us, they had four people sitting on the podium, with a coordinator in the middle, and each person spoke for a paragraph. , everyone was communicating with the audience. At that time, a famous American economist and professor at the American Institute of World Economics sitting next to me proposed a "decoupling theory". He believed that the world economy and the U.S. economy would not affect the Chinese economy or the emerging economies. The country believes that China's economic growth momentum is very strong. In addition, even if exports to the United States decrease, exports to other countries will increase. This question is raised. I said at the time that I did not agree with your view. I thought it would have an impact on China's economy. Because the economies of all countries in the world are interconnected, I said at the time that it might have a considerable impact on the Chinese economy. In the end, none of us could convince anyone. I said, let’s do it this way. January next year is coming soon, and we’ll see who is right in January next year. I think it will definitely have an impact on the Chinese economy.

You see, the economic growth rate was 11.9 last year and 11.6 this year. The total rate in the first three quarters was 9.9, while it was 12.2 in the first three quarters of last year, a drop of 2.3 percentage points. This 2.3 percentage points is not a decimal, which means it has an impact. Of course, the influence here comes from various aspects, and we cannot go into detail due to time constraints today.

But I remembered that Comrade Zhu Rongji once gave a report at the Great Hall of the People, several years ago. He said, "In the past, we always said that the enemy is getting worse day by day, and we are getting better day by day." In the context of world economic globalization, if it continues to deteriorate, we may not be able to get better, because if it continues to deteriorate, our trade surplus with them will decrease and our exports will decrease, which will also have an impact on us. In the face of the financial crisis, in fact, because China has huge foreign exchange reserves, a relatively high economic development rate, and a vast market, many countries have great hopes for China and even ask China to assume leadership at this time. to deal with the financial crisis. I spoke at the World Economic Forum committee meeting in Dubai. I said that China’s GDP is only 6th in the world, and China’s per capita GDP is less than 100th in the world. So don’t have too high expectations for China. It is impossible for China to show the power of leadership. , the most we can do is share responsibilities with other countries in the world. The most we can do is this. Therefore, due to the close connection between China's economy and the world economy, as President Hu Jintao said, this is our first priority to do our own things well, which is our contribution to the world economy. Therefore, this is China’s basic attitude towards the world financial crisis, and everyone knows it.

So, why is next year the most difficult year? There are a few: First, our economy has been affected by various external and internal factors, which must be the decline in economic growth. The external influence, as I just said, is the impact of the financial crisis. From an internal point of view, due to the economic downturn and reduced demand, the prices of many of our steel products are falling, and the production costs of enterprises are increasing. Why are they increasing? This is because our labor costs, environmental protection costs, etc. are also increasing. So the export market and domestic demand market are still not very prosperous at present. As you all know, our growth of 11.9% in 2007 was driven by the troika. Investment contributed about 39%, domestic demand contributed 38%, and net exports contributed 23%. The situation in 2007 was roughly like this. Now it seems that investment is due to our tightening of monetary policy some time ago, and the overall investment has shrunk, so this year's investment is negative. This is not as much as last year, exports are not as much as last year, and consumption is basically the same. There is a slight increase, so two of the three factors have declined, one factor has increased slightly, and the overall decline has occurred. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter of this year, I saw the recent National Information Center forecast of 8, and the full year is probably in the range of 9.5-10. So in this case, because the economy has an inertia, if the troika cannot be promoted soon next year, it will continue to decline. If no measures are taken, it may reach 7.5 to 8. If measures are taken, we may maintain 8 or more. This is a reason.

The second reason is that we are now facing a relative lack of power to drive the market. Because the most important thing to stimulate the market is consumption. The first prerequisite for stimulating consumption is that people have money, the second is to spend money, and the third is to have a place to spend. Now let’s look at the problem. First, people's income is still mainly on the low side. Second, especially in China, people have a greater tendency to save, so when they have money, they are not willing to spend it, but are willing to save it. Of course, there are objective reasons for this. Some may be because our social security is not sound enough. In order to protect ourselves, some are afraid to spend money because children’s education and other issues require money. But there is also the issue of traditional habits. I remember Comrade Zhu Rongji once gave a report and said that if you have received a salary increase, you should not go to the bank to save money. You should go to consume. Consumption is patriotic. Why? Because the deposit bank takes the money back, the bank has to lend it out to earn interest and pay you interest. If you don’t consume, how will the entire economy develop and how will the company’s products be sold? Therefore, it is necessary to increase income and pay back interest. To change the mindset, there must also be a place to spend money.

The biggest driver of the economy is real estate, because real estate is an industry that can be said to be a relatively significant driver of the economy. According to my research, 100 yuan of real estate investment can boost 220 yuan of consumption. But the current situation is that real estate is in an extremely cold state. There are several reasons for "coldness". One is that we have implemented macro-control of real estate some time ago, so people always hope that real estate prices will fall. As we all know, the habit is Buying up is not buying down, so many people buy houses and hold currency to wait, so the real estate transaction volume is now declining. Therefore, the central government has also been taking measures recently to find ways to stimulate real estate consumption.

Our stock market has fallen into a bear market. Everyone knows that the stock market plays an important role in economic development. Its role can be simply summarized into two aspects: First, if it can play a role, if the stock market is strong, the Wealth effect: In fact, the stock market cannot create social wealth. It can distribute social wealth, making people dare to make money and spend it, thus generating social wealth. But last year our stock market was overheated. After a sharp rise, it plummeted, and now it has entered a bear market. You see, although the central government has introduced many measures, including reducing stamp duty, unilateral collection of stamp duty, etc., the stock market is always dangling around 2000 points, including It recently rose to over 2,000 points and then dropped to around 1,800 points. Because people lacked confidence, they sold the stock market as soon as it rose, and then fell back. Therefore, when the stock market is in a bear market, our economy will also experience a cold side. Therefore, due to the decline in economic growth and the cooling of the housing and stock markets, next year will be more difficult for us.

The third question is what to do? Everyone is waiting for the final policies to be announced at the Central Economic Work Conference. Simply put, what is the logic behind the changes in central policies? Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed two preventions and one tightening, which are to prevent the economy from overheating and preventing obvious price increases. On November 6 this year, the focus was changed to maintaining economic growth and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. It is obvious to everyone that this is to ensure economic growth. To maintain economic growth, we must implement a moderately loose monetary policy, because maintaining economic growth is a troika. The first carriage must be investment, and investment must be driven. You cannot rely on the government alone. The government's investment hopes to stimulate social investment, but To stimulate social investment, there is not so much money in society and we have to rely on banks. Therefore, our government revenue is more than 5 trillion a year. Our fixed asset investment last year was 13.7 trillion, 2 trillion in rural areas, and 11.7 trillion in urban areas. trillion, so just increasing the ratio by 1 to 2 trillion is not enough, so private social investment must be stimulated. But what is the problem now? Our local government has a total of 18 trillion yuan, but in fact we don’t have that much money. The fiscal revenue is only over 5 trillion yuan, and there are still a lot of expenditures, so very little financial resources are actually used. The bank has about more than 40 trillion yuan, and it has lent about more than 10 trillion yuan, because there are regulations on the reserve ratio. If the reserve ratio is 15, the more than 40 trillion yuan will freeze 6 or 7 trillion yuan, leaving only 70,000 or 80,000 yuan. Billion, where does the money of 18 trillion come from? Of course, people may have some money on hand, but if you want to stimulate social investment, you are not engaged in public welfare undertakings like the government. If you want to stimulate social investment, you need to make a profit. If there is no profit, it will be difficult for social investment to be invested. It is not easy to do this. Now the government's construction of low-rent housing can stimulate demand for steel, cement, etc., but this is government consumption, not public consumption. If commercial housing in the real estate market does not develop and no one buys it, and developers do not build housing, the government will still be consuming, not the people.

The second question is consumption. I have just said that we need to increase the income of residents. Of course, this does not mean raising wages in one sentence. Is it possible? Without improvement in labor productivity, it is impossible to increase wages, and it is possible to increase subsistence allowance standards. The only possibility now is to increase the threshold for personal income tax, and rely on this to increase the income of some residents. However, under this situation, consumption concepts still need to be changed and new consumption points must be provided.

The third is export. Now our exports have decreased, and the government has also adopted methods such as increasing export tax rebates. In fact, export tax rebates are a method commonly used abroad, and it should be entirely possible for us to do it.

But regarding this issue, I still hold a relatively optimistic attitude. That is to say, for Chinese products, we mainly export low-end daily necessities. This part of the export will not be significantly reduced. If we add export tax rebates In the future, there may not be much reduction. Because ordinary Americans still mainly buy daily consumer goods from China because the prices are cheap. An American once wrote a book, "A Year Without Made in China." He was influenced by the American media and decided not to buy Chinese products. After a year of persistence, he surrendered. Why? First, household expenses have increased significantly. Second, they don’t buy Chinese products. Some accessories, such as refrigerators and TV accessories, cost a lot of money. Third, they buy gifts for their children at Christmas. Almost all toys are from China. manufactured. So from this point of view, we should say that exports will decrease, but not by much. However, the trade surplus may decrease due to various aspects of price. Therefore, we must stimulate economic growth from these three aspects. This cannot rely on the government alone, but must rely on all our enterprises and all the people. First, driven by the government's investment of 4 trillion, the society must actively respond to expand investment. Next year our investment can be maintained at 13 or 14 trillion, which would be good.

The second thing is consumption, and it depends on everyone’s consumption. Don't deposit money in the bank, everyone needs to spend it.

The third is to actively encourage exports. Of course, our financial system reform cannot be stopped. The reason why we have been relatively less affected by the financial crisis this time is, first of all, because our financial institutions are supported by government money, and the people have a vested interest in our financial institutions and the government. Confidence, so there is no credit crisis or confidence crisis. The second is that the financial system is not developed enough. We have no asset securitization, and there are basically no investment banks or rating agencies, so there are no conditions that cause the expansion of virtual capital. The third is that the supervision of financial institutions is still relatively cautious. However, if we look at our financial operating efficiency and financial competitiveness, there is still a relatively large gap compared with international standards. Therefore, our finance is the blood of the economy, so we must run the blood well, so financial reform cannot stop. It is necessary to timely and in accordance with the original plan, the launch of GEM and the launch of stock index futures, or to improve our competitiveness in a timely manner according to the situation and improve our financial competitiveness and financial efficiency.

I will make three points. First, the world economy will recover in 2010. We should have such confidence and be cautiously optimistic and not be too pessimistic. Second, next year may be the most difficult year for our Chinese economy. We must be fully mentally prepared. We will work hard and strive hard in accordance with the central government’s deployment. I did not say hard work. When I say hard work, people will not consume. So When it comes to working hard, including in the investment process, we must pay attention to reducing decision-making errors, and do not embark on projects without doing research, which will ultimately cause waste. Also, pay attention to preventing corruption, because previous experience has been that when a highway is built, a number of cadres fell down. Some of them were as high as the transportation director. The three transportation directors successively became corrupt elements. Therefore, as Chairman Mao said, "Corruption and waste are great crimes."

In addition, we must increase our confidence, work hard, be prepared for danger in times of peace, and think more about the challenges we face. However, as General Secretary Hu said, "There are always more solutions than difficulties." Therefore, we can always overcome difficulties through our efforts. I think when we all get together at the end of next year, we will have stronger confidence in China's economic development.

Thank you everyone.

Zhang Guobao made the above remarks at the 2009 China Economic Situation Analysis High-Level Report Conference held in Beijing. He said that the current trend of electricity production and consumption is obviously declining, which is a favorable opportunity to accelerate the transformation of energy methods and promote the adjustment of energy structure. In the future, the country will continue to increase its efforts to "increase the big and suppress the small" in the power industry.

According to reports, at present, small units of less than 100,000 kilowatts account for 115 million kilowatts of my country's installed electricity capacity. The national total is more than 700 million kilowatts, less than 800 million. Small units account for 16. Coal consumption It is high and has high emissions. On average across the country, it now consumes more than 300 grams of coal to generate one kilowatt hour of electricity, while decades ago the old units required more than 500 grams to generate one kilowatt hour of electricity. In order to promote "energy conservation and emission reduction", during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, it is planned to shut down 50 million kilowatts of small thermal power units. As of January this year, a total of 32.1 million kilowatts have been shut down, of which 3.1 million kilowatts were shut down in 2006 and 2007. 14.38 million kilowatts per year and 14.58 million kilowatts from January to October 2008. The power shut down by small units was replaced by large units, saving 40 million tons of raw coal every year and reducing sulfur dioxide emissions by 680,000 tons and carbon dioxide emissions by 6,500 tons. "In the past, it was set The ones to be phased out are small units of 50,000 kilowatts, and now some leaders have suggested expanding the scope to 100,000 kilowatts to reduce the scale,” Zhang Guobao said.

In addition, Zhang Guobao also said that the focus of future work will be to promote the integration of coal resources, vigorously develop nuclear power and other renewable energy sources, and cultivate large-scale energy enterprise groups.

I found so much, I hope it helps you~@^_^@