SAIC: A steady leader, who can pay attention to the "internet plus" project and high cash dividends.
SAIC 600 104
Research Institute: Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) Analyst: Han Weiqi Date of writing: 20 15-05-2 1
Conclusion and suggestion: SAIC is the leader of domestic passenger cars, and its cooperation with Volkswagen and GM has established its position. At present, SAIC has entered a stable period of its main business. However, smart cars that cooperate with Ali and their own new energy vehicles are still worthy of attention. 14 dividend yield of nearly 6% is also quite attractive.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 20 15 and 16 will be 2.78 yuan and 3. 13 yuan, respectively, increasing by 9.6% and 12.7% year-on-year. At present, the P/E ratios of 15 and 16 are 8.7 times and 7.7 times respectively. Therefore, the investment proposal is maintained.
Smart cars are on the road: SAIC and Ali each contribute 1 100 million yuan to the research and development of Internet smart cars. It is estimated that the prototype will be launched in August of 16, and intelligent driving under simple road conditions will be completed within 3 to 5 years; The group hopes to promote this cooperation project as a platform for developing smart cars; The threshold of traditional cars is not high, and we think Ali's internet technology and resources are more important.
The battery bottleneck of new energy vehicles has been opened: in 15 years, 500e50 (235,000 yuan, the actual battery life is about 120km) and 2000r550 (250,000-260,000 yuan) will be sold, and the sales volume of 550 will increase after the battery capacity bottleneck is relieved (Qunyi expects the annual sales volume to reach 8,000). Six fuel cell vehicles were sold in 14, and will continue to be sold to professional institutions and government departments in 15. It is estimated that dozens of cars will be sold. At present, the government has increased the operating subsidies for new energy and hybrid buses and taxis, which is conducive to the increase of new energy vehicles.
Steady joint venture, official price reduction to grab the market: Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM are SAIC's main vehicle business, accounting for 60.6% of the sales in the first four months. In recent years, Volkswagen and GM products have a perfect layout and a large base, and their growth has slowed down due to the competition of independent brands, but their profits are still the main part of the Group's operating profit (60%). By the end of April, the inventory of GM and Volkswagen manufacturers and distributors was about 1.7~ 1.8 months, which was slightly higher, but still controllable. The Group has successively announced the official price reduction of 1 1 models of Shanghai Volkswagen Polo, Touran and Shanghai GM, ranging from 1 to 30,000, which is also aimed at emerging independent brands (mainly SUVs), so there is no need to be pessimistic.
Independent overweight low-end strategy, the increment can be expected: the group's own brand passenger cars have been relatively weak, and the Roewe and MG high-end car strategies are less than expected. However, after SAIC-GM-Wuling released the "Baojun" brand on 10, it began to compete in the low-priced market of its own brand, and completed the sales of127,000 vehicles in the first four months, becoming a new incremental source.
The industrial chain is complete, with obvious PV and CV: SAIC commercial vehicles are not strong, with a total of only 40,000 vehicles in the first four months. In recent years, the newly released brand Maxus has also performed poorly. In terms of parts and components, the coverage of the Group is relatively complete. Except for glass and tires, the rest can be produced by themselves or in cooperation. The Group also has Anji Logistics, which undertakes the logistics and transportation of complete vehicles and spare parts inside and outside the Group, with a capacity of 6.5 million vehicles in 14, the largest in the world.
The production capacity is relatively abundant, with 654.38+6 million vehicles in 2005. Sales target: After the new plants of General Motors Wuhan and Volkswagen Changsha are put into production, the existing production capacity of the Group is 5,654.38+million vehicles, with two shifts every 250 days. After passing the technical transformation in 65,438+06, the output will be expanded by about 65,438+00%. According to the group, it is difficult to complete the production and sales of 6 million vehicles in 15, and the economic environment is the main obstacle. 14 years, the sales volume of GM and Volkswagen in first-and second-tier cities is 5 1%~52%. 14 years, China's foreign exchange purchase increased by about 16%, which is the main driving force in developed regions. Gm Wuling is basically located in the third-and fourth-tier cities, and the sinking of the joint venture brand pipeline will also pay attention to this market, and the competition will intensify in the future.
The financial business has developed rapidly, and the online and offline networks have continued to expand: in terms of marketing network, the Group has more than 65,438+000 2S stores and launched "Car Enjoy". Com "collects and analyzes the pre-sales and after-sales data of customer resources that have passed the warranty period. In terms of financial business, it owns SAIC Finance Company (internal bank, consumer loan, self-owned car, penetration rate 17%) and SAIC General Finance Company (the first and largest in China, penetration rate12%); In addition, SAIC investment company was established in Silicon Valley to seek the possibility of extended acquisition and cooperation of automobile-related industrial chains.