Futures price > spot purchase price+delivery fee+value-added tax+capital occupation interest.
According to the above analysis, the author takes the delivery of Xuzhou National Cotton Reserve as an example, assuming that the standard cotton purchase price that meets the delivery standard this year is assumed to be A yuan/ton, and the current futures price is B yuan/ton, then the cost is:
1. Delivery fee per ton = transaction fee+delivery fee+storage fee+cooperation public inspection fee+storage fee = 6+4+ 15 (automobile storage fee) +25+ 18× 2 = 86 yuan;
Note: The above storage costs are based on the automobile storage costs. Actually, there are two standards: 28 yuan/ton for small package trains and 38 yuan/ton for large package trains.
The cotton warehouse receipt will be put into storage one month before delivery at the latest, and it will take about 1-2 months to complete delivery, so the storage fee will be counted as 2 months temporarily. The storage fee varies with different modes of transportation and packaging, so the delivery fee per ton for automobile storage is 86 yuan, 99 yuan for small package trains and 109 yuan for large package trains. In addition, due to the different transportation modes and mileage, the transportation cost is also different, so it is hoped that investors will calculate the price of goods arriving at the warehouse according to the actual cost before participating.
2. Delivery 1 ton cotton capital occupation interest = spot price × monthly interest × months = a × 0.487% × 3 = 0.0 146a yuan.
3. Interest on funds occupied by delivery 1 ton cotton futures positions = b× 0.487 %× 3× 0.25 = 0.00365B yuan.
Note: This interest rate is calculated according to the short-term loan interest rate of Agricultural Development Bank, with a monthly interest rate of 0.487%. Among them, the figure of 0.25 is mainly obtained by considering that the deposit ratio charged in general months is 10% and the delivery month is 50%.
4. VAT per ton of cotton = (cotton settlement price in a certain month-cotton purchase price) ×13%/(1+13%)
=(B-A)× 13%/( 1+ 13%)
= 0. 1 15 yuan (b-a)
Note: Because the futures cotton price usually returns to the spot price near the delivery month, but it is higher than the spot price, the settlement price is calculated by B, and the actual settlement price is subject to the settlement in that month.
Total delivery cost per ton of cotton C= delivery cost per ton+interest on capital occupation per ton of cotton+value-added tax per ton of cotton.
= 86+0.0 146 A+0.00365 B+0. 1 15(B-A)
We take the delivery of Xuzhou warehouse as an example. The delivery price around Xuzhou is 1 1500 yuan/ton, and the selling price of futures is assumed to be12,500 yuan/ton. Then the total transportation cost per ton of cotton is:
c = 86+0.0 146 * 1 1500+0.00365 * 12500+0. 1 15 *( 12500- 1 1500)
= 86+167.9+45.6+115 = 414.5 yuan/ton.
Profit: b-a-c = b-a-[86+1.46a+0.365b+0.115 (b-a)] Yuan/ton.
Note: (1) The above is the profit calculated by car warehousing. If calculated according to the storage cost of small package train, the profit will be less than the difference between the storage cost of small package train and automobile storage, and if calculated according to the storage cost of big package train, the profit will be less than the difference between the storage cost of big package train and automobile storage.
(2) The above calculation is based on the standard grade GB1103-1999, which is 328B domestic serrated fine wool.
(3) At present, the Agricultural Development Bank prohibits cotton-related enterprises that use its loans from entering the futures market, so enterprises that use their own funds to purchase spot funds can ignore the interest occupied by spot funds, and the total delivery cost per ton is: 86+45.6+115 = 246.6 yuan.
Due to the characteristics of strong operability, low risk and basically determinable profit before operation, spot cotton enterprises are favored. This time, in the 165438+ 10 contract, the company's customers participated in the delivery of more than 600 tons of cotton, which was basically thrown at the price of 14000 yuan. Most of the cotton they deliver is produced by their own ginning factory, and the cost is low. Plus the freight, the price of the car board arriving at the delivery warehouse is only 1 1300 yuan/ton, so it is profitable.