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Expert Profile | Big Brother, a well-known private real estate expert, urban express and many other media special buyers, has consulted tens of thousands of people about the purchase of houses since 2003, and is known as the most intimate purchase consultant for ordinary people!
Popular cities have high housing prices, few room tickets and hard to find a room, so many people look around popular cities.
Is this model right?
If you choose neighboring cities, how to buy real estate investment is the most logical?
1
Take a popular city as an example. Who is suitable to be the target around you?
After it is hard to find a room in Hangzhou property market, many investors have turned their attention to some surrounding cities. I have also recommended some cities, such as Haining, Lin 'an, Shaoxing, Ke Qiao and so on. The light rail in Hangzhou can be reached. They are close to Hangzhou and the local economy is relatively developed.
Recently, people often ask me where to buy Haining and what real estate is better. So with the task of understanding the property market, I used the weekend to visit Haining.
In fact, it is quite convenient to go from Hangzhou to Haining. After driving for more than an hour, the expressway is also quite smooth, and the high-speed rail is also very convenient. Coupled with the future construction of light rail. The whole connection between Haining and Hangzhou is very convenient in transportation.
A few years ago, we visited the famous Lily Garden in Haining, which was just opened. The price was cheap at that time. Later, I didn't know much about the property market in Haining. After there is a light rail plan between Haining and Hangzhou, I learned online at the beginning of this year that many house prices in Haining are still around 6000- 10000 yuan/.
2
Why does Haining have certain potential?
Haining still has certain potential for two reasons:
The purchase restriction in first-and second-tier cities leads to the spillover of purchasing power to surrounding cities. The spillover of purchasing power in Shanghai and Hangzhou has boosted the local property market in Haining.
The planning and construction of light rail, coupled with highly developed transportation such as high-speed high-speed rail, will also bring some demand for housing.
The developed local economy, especially Haining Leather City, has brought a lot of migrants, so there is a certain market demand for local demolition.
three
What discs did I choose to watch in Haining?
Because of the time, I mainly look at some buildings near the light rail or in the core area-
First stop
Oriental city
The picture comes from big brother.
Next to Zhejiang University International College, it is more than 200 meters away from the light rail station. The whole building is 340,000 square meters, and the price of the building 19 currently on sale is about15,000 yuan/,which requires tying parking spaces. There are not many houses left in the whole building. This property is one of the most expensive properties in Haining.
Because it is located in the new district, there are plans such as Hu Juan Lake and Zhejiang University International College.
This is one of the few real light rail projects in Haining.
The second stop
Park Road 1
The picture comes from big brother.
There are several buildings near Yintai Business Circle in Haining, such as Four Seasons Champs Elysé es, Gao Hui Baiyue House and Xiangsheng Qiantang Courtyard. Although it is one or two kilometers away from the light rail station, because of the business circle, the current price is around 14000 yuan/,but it is late and there are fewer houses. The only property with relatively good housing nearby is Park Road 1, which is located at a high end and enjoys the reputation of the Oriental City. The price is also around 14000 yuan. At present, there are plenty of houses, parking spaces and storage rooms.
Third station
Wancheng ideality mansion
The picture comes from big brother.
It is located near Haining Leather City, about 1.5km away from the light rail station, and a little far from the subway station. Only 70,000 square meters of real estate. At present, there are two small high-rise buildings on sale, with an area of 108 square meters and 188 square meters respectively, and the price is about 12000 yuan/,which also requires tying parking spaces.
The fourth stop
Carson satellite city
The picture comes from big brother.
Carson Satellite City is about 3 kilometers away from Haining Leather City. The scale of the building is relatively large, 1.4 million square meters, which was developed by local leather enterprises. At present, the main products for sale are three high-rise and courtyard-style townhouses. The high-rise price is11000-12000 yuan/,and the townhouse price is 20000 yuan/above. You also need to match the parking space. It is about 1 km away from Xieqiao Station of Light Rail Station. I read a data. In February alone, 300 sets were sold, and the sales volume was still quite large, but the price was relatively low at that time.
I also talked with local agents and distribution friends, and learned that there are many properties around Haining, but there are not many properties in the core business district of the core plate. Since March this year, the whole Haining property market, the sales rhythm is very fast, and the sales situation is relatively hot.
four
Some views on the present situation of Haining property market
Haining's house prices have jumped significantly this year.
For example, Park Road 1at the end of last year was a little over 9,000 yuan/a, and now it is about14,000 yuan/a, which has increased by about 40%. Baiyue House has also gone up a lot. Oriental City sold 9000 yuan/more last year, and now 14000- 15000 yuan/. It can be said that the price has skyrocketed this year.
However, although the overall price increase of Haining is relatively large, compared with the historical transaction data, the increase is not particularly large.
The highest house price in Shanghai was 20 13, when the average transaction price of commercial housing in Haining was 9572 yuan/. A lady who bought Baiyue House told me that she bought a set in Baiyue House at the end of 13, and the price should be around 12000- 13000 yuan/year. Later, it plummeted at 15, and the price reached 16. 17 started to rise in February and March, and now it has rebounded to 14000 yuan/,from 12000- 13000 yuan/in early 2004 to 9000 yuan/,and now it has rebounded to 14000 yuan/.
Therefore, although the price increase in Haining is relatively large, it is not too high compared with history. The highest average price in Haining in 2003 was 2065438+9579 yuan/year, 14 8 172 yuan/year, 15 8375 yuan/year, 16 8242 yuan/year.
The picture is taken from Haining Fangtianxia.
Now (20 17), the average price of new houses is still more than 9,000 yuan/,and the house price in the city center is about14,000 yuan/. So overall, the increase is not big, but it has indeed increased a little since March.
There are not many houses for sale in Haining.
In the process of looking at the house in Haining, I saw that some of these properties were built in half, and some were just capped, but when I asked, there was basically no room for sale. It can be seen that the pace of transformation in Haining this year is still very fast, similar to that in Hangzhou, and many properties have no room to sell.
The data shows that in 20 16 years, the overall commercial housing sales in Haining reached 18 159 sets.
In 20 16, Haining acquired land136,570 square meters, which is more than 20,000 houses according to the plot ratio of 2.5 100 square meters. The removal of this chemical is still very fast. Therefore, there are fewer houses in some core areas of Haining.
Under the strict price limit, tying parking spaces have become the norm.
Haining can't adjust now, because the price is also bound by the filing price limit. The common measures taken by developers are parking, some take one, some take two, and some even take storage rooms. Parking is a common phenomenon.
Loose purchase restriction and loan restriction policy
Haining is limited in purchase, foreign accounts are limited in purchase 1 set, and local accounts are not limited in purchase.
Haining's loan policy is relatively loose. For example, if you are a foreign hukou, as long as both husband and wife have not repaid the mortgage, or the mortgage has been paid off, the minimum down payment can be 3.5% in the first set of Haining.
Haining and Hangzhou are rapidly converging.
Haining's construction speed is really fast now, especially its connection with Hangzhou. For example, there is a Lin Hang development zone in Xucun and an inter-bank development zone in Xiasha North. Haining has done a good job in actively docking Hangzhou.
Light rail construction is in full swing. On the way back, we saw that the road was blocked by a baffle. The light rail has started construction and is scheduled to open to traffic in 2020.
Haining is an administrative division that does not belong to Hangzhou, but it is the most active city connecting with Hangzhou. Whether in light rail construction or development zone construction, they are actively docking with Hangzhou. So this is also a reason why Haining real estate is welcomed by Hangzhou property buyers.
There are many foreign investors in Haining, and investment demand is the main reason for driving house prices.
I saw a data. In 20 16, the transaction volume of Haining residential market through marketing agencies outside the city accounted for about 43%, and foreign customers accounted for a large proportion. For example, in February this year, Carson Satellite City sold 300 sets in a single month, but it was largely due to the purchasing power brought by foreign customers.
In the first half of this year, the proportion may be higher, which means that this wave of price increase in Haining market, besides the better real estate market and stronger local demand, is mainly the spillover of purchasing power in big cities, especially Shanghai and Hangzhou, which has played a great role in the rise of housing prices in Haining.
Investment demand, property buyers drive housing prices in Haining, which is also in line with the law of rising housing prices. If it is only local demand, it is impossible to pull the house price so high and so fast, mainly because many foreign buyers go to Haining to buy houses, which leads to the house price in Haining rising faster and faster in the short term.
five
How to judge Haining's future property market?
In my opinion, there are several data worthy of our attention.
The proportion of foreign buyers is too high. Who will be the catcher in the future?
As mentioned earlier, there are many foreign investors in Haining, and investors should cash out. How to cash this part of the transaction volume? Who will accept this proposal? This is a problem. Are the locals willing to accept the quotations from these investors at a higher price?
Why are locals less likely to take over? Because the permanent population of Haining is relatively large in county-level cities, with 830,000 people. However, in recent years, the population growth rate is still relatively slow.
According to the data, from 2007 to 20 1 1, the registered population of Haining has been at the level of 600,000 in the first 20 years. By permanent residents, we mean that there are 830,000 people who have lived in Haining for more than half a year, but the registered population of Haining has been hovering between 600,000 and 640,000 in the past 20 years, so the population growth is relatively slow.
According to another data, the population of Haining in 20 16 only increased by 5,500 compared with that in 20 15, most of which were newly born, and there were few migrants. In addition, the population growth rate is slowing down. From 20 12 to 20 16, compared with 2007-2010/year, the population growth rate in this decade decreased by 1.45 points compared with the previous decade, and the population growth rate in Haining was slowing down.
I didn't find out the number of local houses in Haining, the number of self-owned houses per capita, or the per capita living area, but I believe that the ratio of per capita living area to self-owned houses of local people in Haining is still quite high.
In a city with a slow population growth and a small foreign population, if the real estate develops too fast, the sales of commercial housing are too high and foreigners buy too much, I am really worried about who will take over the quotation in the future. This is a bit confusing.
The Future Trend of Haining's Pillar Industry
Haining takes leather industry as the leading industry, and now the annual sales of Haining Leather City is about 20 billion yuan. Leather City is a business card of Haining.
However, due to the development of Internet economy, the traditional retail industry is actually slowly changing. Online consumption, from offline to online, used to be a lot of things, especially some high-end leather clothes. There may be fewer people spending online, but the growth rate in recent years is also relatively fast. The impact of online sales on traditional retail industry still has an impact. The impact of this kind of influence on the future cannot be evaluated. I think it may be even worse in the future.
The business model of Leather City, which is mainly based on physical stores, will change in the future, and the trend of relying on traditional industries to attract a large number of operators to settle in Haining will also change.
Therefore, I am worried that after selling goods online, it will have a greater impact on traditional shopping malls. Because this is not only an industrial gathering, but also an important industry to attract foreign population. If this industry changes slowly, the number of people going to Haining for business and employment may decrease, and the introduction of population may further decrease.
Haining is still dominated by traditional industries, and it is difficult to hear about any high-tech or emerging industries and technologies in Haining. In the future, with the strengthening of environmental protection supervision and pollution enterprise supervision, will some traditional enterprises face development bottlenecks? Without the development of emerging industries, can Haining maintain its previous high-speed development?
The future housing price in Haining depends on the general trend and the degree of integration in Hangzhou, and there may be some room, but I don't think there is much room in the short term. Although there are still car seats, this situation may change soon, so don't buy them now. You can wait for the market to calm down a little and see if there is any chance. Now it is not recommended that you rush to Haining to buy a house and invest blindly.
postscript
Later, the agent who showed me the house also told me that Oriental City and Carson Satellite City, which used to need a ride, don't need a ride now, and there are signs of cooling down compared with the previous market.