What impact will this policy have on the monthly mortgage payment? Will the future mortgage interest rate rise or fall? What will be the trend of the property market in the later period?
New mortgage interest rate conversion
On August 20 this year, the interest rate marketization reform went further. After the reform of LPR formation mechanism, the first quotation was announced, 1 year was 4.25%, and over 5 years was 4.85%. The quotation published for the second time on September 20th shows that the term of 1 year is 4.20%, and the LPR will remain unchanged after five years.
With the reform of LPR, the interest rate of individual housing loan has also changed greatly.
On August 25th, the central bank issued the announcement 12 (2019) in 2008, saying that since June 8th, 10, the new commercial individual housing loan interest rate was formed by adding the LPR of the corresponding period in the latest month as the pricing benchmark. The interest rate of the first home loan shall not be lower than the LPR in the same period, and the interest rate of the second home loan shall not be lower than the LPR plus 60 basis points in the same period.
"Cut off the old and the new" is another focus of this interest rate reform. The central bank said in the announcement that commercial personal housing loans issued before June 8 10 and commercial personal housing loans that have been signed but not issued are still implemented according to the original contract.
The relevant person in charge of the central bank explained that the announcement is mainly aimed at the newly released personal housing loan interest rate, and the existing personal housing loan interest rate is still implemented according to the original contract; Compared with before the reform, the interest expenses of households applying for individual housing loans are basically unaffected. Simply put, unless the central bank raises interest rates or cuts interest rates, the monthly payment of buyers who are already repaying loans will not be affected.
In addition, the central bank has made it clear that the interest rate policy of provident fund personal housing loans will not be adjusted for the time being. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the temporary adjustment of the provident fund policy is the embodiment of the current provident fund policy, which can not only ensure that the cost of just buying a house does not rise, but also keep the loan interest rate stable.
Up or down?
After this adjustment, will the mortgage interest rate rise or fall?
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, made it clear at the regular briefing on the State Council policy held on August 20th that one thing is certain: the mortgage interest rate will not fall!
Since 20 15, 10124, the national benchmark interest rate for individual housing commercial loans is 4.75% for five years and 4.90% for more than five years. At present, the fixed term of most housing loans in China is more than five years, and the benchmark interest rate of 4.90% is usually the reference standard for banks and property buyers.
The new policy of the central bank makes it clear that the interest rate of the first home loan should not be lower than the LPR of more than five years, that is, 4.85%, and the interest rate of the second home loan should not be lower than 5.45% after rising by 60 basis points. In contrast, after the conversion of the pricing benchmark, the lower interest rate limit of the first commercial personal housing loan in China is basically the same as the actual lowest interest rate level of personal housing loan in China at present, with little change.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that overall, this is still a neutral policy. The purpose of this policy is to stabilize the real estate expectation and avoid the obvious downward adjustment of real estate interest rate following LPR, which is to avoid stimulating real estate rather than restraining it.
However, Zhang Dawei stressed that the LPR interest rate is floating, which means that the mortgage interest rate will also float. After that, it is more likely that the LPR interest rate will be lowered, so the mortgage interest rate will also be lowered, and the mortgage interest rate will rise slightly.
Institution: The actual mortgage interest rate will be different in different cities.
For the implementation of the New Deal in each city, the announcement also made clear requirements.
The central bank said that provincial branches should guide the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in the provincial market, and determine the lower limit of the interest rate of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loans within their jurisdiction according to the unified national credit policy and the changes in the local real estate market situation; Banking financial institutions should make clear the interest rate pricing rules of commercial personal housing loans according to the lower limit of the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in provincial markets, combined with factors such as operating conditions, customer risk status and credit status, and reasonably determine the specific value of each loan.
Dong Ximiao, deputy dean of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the New Deal stipulated the minimum requirement for the national unified mortgage interest rate, and according to the principle of "taking measures according to the city", it is expected that the real interest rate of individual housing loans will increase in most areas.
According to the data released by Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute, in August, among the 35 cities monitored, the interest rate of the first home loan in 17 city rose, and the interest rate in 16 city remained at the level of July. Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou rose by an average of 4 basis points, while other cities remained unchanged; Among the second-tier cities, Suzhou, Wuxi, Shenyang and Changsha all rose in March, and Shenyang rose by 23 basis points; Only Wuhan, Dongguan and Changchun have lowered the interest rate of the first home loan.
Among the 533 branches (branches) of banks in 35 cities monitored, except for banks that stopped lending, * * * 19 banks still implement the current preferential policy of benchmark interest rate, and all of them are located in Shanghai; 1 16 The interest rate of the second home loan is lower than 5.45%, which is mainly distributed in Shanghai, Xiamen, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities 19.
Pacific Securities said that after the implementation of the new mortgage policy, these banks must raise the mortgage interest rate, which may further increase the average mortgage interest rate in some cities. Judging from the current data, the interest rate of the first home loan in Shanghai and the average interest rate of the second home in Xiamen and Tianjin are facing upward pressure.
Guo Sheng Securities said that cities with discounted interest rates on first home loans, such as Shanghai and Xiamen, and cities with floating interest rates on first home loans, such as Beijing, will be affected differently in the short term. In the future, there will be many cities with zero lower limit and cities with high housing prices, and the actual mortgage interest rate of each city will be different.