"Securities Daily" reporter recently called and visited some bank outlets in first-tier cities, and generally reported that the current mortgage amount is tight and the lending time is unpredictable. At the same time, some bank staff reminded: "Because the loan time is uncertain, buyers must pay attention to the signing time of the loan contract to avoid the risk of default."
Why is the mortgage market in some first-tier cities frequently tightened?
"The regulation of mortgage in some cities is mainly due to the insufficient amount of bank mortgage and the centralized grading management measures of housing-related loans, which leads to tight market liquidity, reflecting the policy intention of strengthening real estate regulation. In the follow-up, other cities in China, especially those with hot real estate, will also raise the mortgage interest rate. " Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, said in an interview with Securities Daily that from the current industry situation, housing credit may be further tightened in the second half of the year, and the mortgage interest rate, as a price tool to adjust the total supply, will not rule out the possibility of further increase in the future.
The interest rate of the first suite in Shanghai entered the "5" era.
The Shanghai property market, which picked up in the first half of this year, ushered in regulation in the second half. At the beginning of July, the second-hand housing price verification policy landed. On July 23, after the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments issued the Notice on Continuing to Rectify and Regulate the Order of the Real Estate Market, Shanghai "responded" to increase the regulation policy of the real estate market and announced that it would raise the mortgage interest rate, with the first interest rate adjusted to 5% and the second interest rate adjusted to 5.7%; Donated houses will be included in the purchase restriction policy, and will still be recorded in the number of houses owned by donors within 5 years. The donee shall comply with the national and Shanghai housing purchase restriction policies. Both new regulations came into effect on July 24th.
The Securities Daily reporter called many bank branches in Shanghai, and the credit manager of a large state-owned bank said: "Recently, our bank raised the mortgage interest rate to 5% for the first set and 5.7% for the second set." Regarding the reasons for the rise, the manager said, "The main reason is that Shanghai's housing prices are rising rapidly at present".
In addition, the speed of mortgage approval is still slow. According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, many Shanghai property buyers' loan review time is as long as 4 months or even longer. Regarding the current mortgage amount, the credit manager of a big bank in Shanghai said that since the fourth quarter of last year, the mortgage amount has been relatively tight, and the current lending time has been extended to three to four months. Some bank credit managers also said: "The mortgage business will be suspended in August, mainly because there is no loan quota."
Shanghai's mortgage pricing has risen sharply, which has both market factors and regulatory needs. Yif Wang, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, told the Securities Daily that the contradiction between supply and demand of mortgage in Shanghai is more prominent than that in the whole country. In June, Shanghai's housing prices rose the most, and this credit policy adjustment can be understood as a set of "combination boxing" for Shanghai's real estate regulation.
Extension of loan time in Beijing area
While Shanghai is tightening its mortgage, Beijing's real estate market is getting more and more tense. The Securities Daily reporter recently visited a number of bank branches in Beijing and found that in terms of mortgage interest rate, the mortgage interest rate of banks in Beijing remained unchanged, and the first set rose by 55 basis points on the basis of LPR, an increase of 5.2%; The second set rose by 105 basis points, or 5.7%. In terms of the amount, the staff of the personal loan department of the bank all said that the current mortgage amount is tight and the lending time is uncertain.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that it will be normal for the loan quota of 202 1 to be tight, especially in recent months, when the transaction volume is high year-on-year, the difficulty of new house loans is relatively low, and the second-hand housing market in many hot cities is generally difficult to borrow.
"The mortgage quota is basically used up this year, and it may have to wait until 65438+ next year 10." A personal loan manager of a large state-owned bank told reporters. The personal loan manager of a joint-stock bank branch also said that due to insufficient quota, the current lending time has been extended.
"Securities Daily" reporter also learned from a number of real estate agents that most banks have no quota, and banks that can issue loans should be at least 1 month at the earliest. There are also many property buyers who told reporters that when applying for mortgage loans from banks, they obviously feel that loans are difficult and slow.
Pan Helin, executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that on the one hand, the tightening of mortgage policies in various places, including the introduction of policies such as "three lines and four files", made the overall mortgage quota tight; On the other hand, in the first half of the year, the real estate industry still showed a strong trend of transactions, so the demand for mortgage loans rose. Under the two-way effect, the mortgage amount is in short supply.
Guangzhou raised the mortgage interest rate four times in half a year.
The interest rates of the first home loan in Shanghai and Beijing have entered the "5" era, and Guangzhou, both first-tier cities, has entered the "6" era.
Since the beginning of this year, Guangzhou has raised the mortgage interest rate four times. It is understood that at present, the interest rates of the first home loans of the four major banks in Guangzhou have basically risen by 90bp- 100bp, with the highest interest rate of 5.65%; The interest rate of the second home loan mostly rises110bp-120bp, with the highest interest rate of 5.85%. The interest rate of the first home loan of China Everbright Bank has "broken 6".
The "Securities Daily" reporter called a number of bank branches in Guangzhou, and the relevant staff all said that the current mortgage quota is tight, and even some banks "temporarily stopped lending". A personal loan manager of a joint-stock bank told reporters: "The mortgage interest rate has been rising recently, and it takes a long time to lend money. After the transfer is completed, it will take 3-4 months to lend money. " Some banks also said, "At present, they are handling the stock mortgage business and will not accept new mortgage applications."
Will housing credit be further tightened in the second half of the year, and will mortgage interest rates continue to rise in the future?
Yif Wang told reporters that the policy orientation of "steady and tight" in real estate financing has not changed. Since the second quarter, it is estimated that the mortgage interest rate of the whole market will continue to rise and the contradiction between supply and demand will increase. He believes that the trend of real estate financing in the future is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the incremental control of mortgage in the next stage may continue to push up the mortgage interest rate; Secondly, the financing pressure of real estate enterprises is more prominent, and the housing enterprises with weak qualifications are facing systematic pressure; Third, the upward adjustment of mortgage pricing is conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin of the banking system and forming certain support for the stability of asset pricing in the banking system.
Pan Helin also said that the mortgage interest rate in the second half of the year first depends on the fluctuation of house prices, and the mortgage interest rate will change due to the change of supply and demand. Therefore, the future mortgage interest rate will be synchronized with the house price. However, the overall interest rate may continue to be loose, including the LPR quotation, which will further reduce the market interest rate. This asymmetric interest rate practice is actually to optimize the credit structure. Our reporter Peng Yan.